…but Dan’s system is snarfing something that my system can’t so I’ll type in my updates that I missed.

9:11 p.m Net is down again this is becoming a pain in the neck

9:13 p.m. Stacy is not a happy man right now

9:18 p.m. Talking to network lady working on it.

9:20 p.m. I’ve just been told that Coakley has conceded

9:22 p.m. The room just went up in a roar, they have found out and the crowd has gone wild….

9:29 p.m. Very jealous of Ace’s air card right now

9:40 p.m. Went through the crowd and talked to Joe Malone. He believes there will be no problem getting national GOP money to support local candidates for statewide office. He didn’t pad the answer.

9:50 p.m. Crowd chanting yankees suck when they show the Coakley stuff on the screen

9:52 p.m. Ace is blogging up a storm, since I can’t get on I’m searching out people to talk to for news.

10:01 p.m. The Loudest boo came when she thanked President Obama.

10:04 p.m. I’m still shocked it was only 5 pts.

10:05 p.m. For Martha Coakley the big question is: Can she get up off the mat and learn from this defeat enough to defend her job?

10:25 p.m. The warm up speakers are up, the crowd is VERY happy, I’m surprised how subdued I am.

10:28 p.m. Romney says the country has reason to thank us, he’s damn right.

10:31 p.m. Chant of “Gas up the truck”

10:32 p.m. Chant of “41!” followed by “People’s seat.”, now chant of “seat him now”

10:37 p.m. “It was all of us against the machine.” Boy I wish I could see Olberman’s face

10:38 p.m. Gail Huff is on the stage, I’m glad she can finally enjoy this.

10:39 p.m. He just said his daughters are both available, a bunch of heads at NOW just blew up.

10:43 p.m. Thanked John McCain (also was gracious to Kerry, and the President) should thank the Other McCain too

10:46 p.m. “When they’re in trouble in Massachusetts, they’re in trouble everywhere.” Democrats should be afraid very afraid.

10:48 p.m. Hits the heathcare bill, more than anything else that caused democrats to cross over.

10:50 p.m. USA chant

10:51 p.m. I really owe Dan Collins a big one for this.

10:57 p.m. “I’m nobody’s senator but yours” Down come the balloons.

11:00 p.m. I’m still pretty surprised at the smallness of the win. Expected much more, I will be very interested in the breakdown of the Democratic absentee vote,

Brockton: Talked to a voter: Very long lines at the polls, an even split between Brown and Coakley signs and people holding them.

Revere: My contact tells me that Brown is the subject on everyone lips. Martha is not. He informs me that for a Republican candidate to generate this much buzz in the city is unknown.

Jamaica Plain: Looking solidly for Martha.

Talked to a gentleman from Boston who voted for Brown, he has known the family for years and is delighted with the candidate, I asked if he would have considered voting republican if another candidate with Brown’s positions had been running. He was not sure, but he expressed no excitement for Coakley.

Update: 2nd report from Leominister from a different polling location. Long lines of voters no Coakley signs, several people holding signs for Brown.

Grafton: Strong Republican town and tonight will be no different, voters excited that they will be making a difference.

Randolph: Normally strong democratic, trending Brown, “she is not personable”

WBUR and the Globe report that the Coakley campaign is alleging fraud. I’m so glad I wasn’t drinking when I heard about that.

Talking to Carl Cameron from Fox now about what we have both seen. Barney Frank loudly proclaimed Ms. Coakley’s faults across the room with no attempt to keep anyone from hearing. This doesn’t happen when you have a chance to win.

Leominster again: Two different precincts. For the first time I have reports of Coakley people holding signs, at City hall it is dead even, at ward 4 one more Coakley person that for Brown. And a heads up to the Right Wing Gammer these are reports from guys you know.

South Boston: Not a sign in the window for either candidate, told that if this was a Kennedy Election there would be no question what would be happening. Southie being Southie people are not saying it aloud when I asked a man in a bar this morning (1:20 a.m.) who he supported, another fellow next to him told me it was none of my business although he used more “colorful” language however the people who have talked to me suggest it will be going Brown.

7:59 p.m. The crowd is just dying for 8 p.m. I’m wondering how fast the media will call it.

8:01 p.m. I think the lack of sleep is finally starting to hit me, I think I’ve had less than 14 hours sleep since Friday.

The main web guy is talking in front of me all about what they did right on the web.

8:12 p.m. I hate to disappoint my pal in Leominster who insisted that the “Brown Vote Fraud” nonsense was real but this report puts the kibosh on what I already laughed about. Wishful thinking on the media’s part doesn’t make it so.

8:15 p.m. The food was pretty good and the band is very loud, these people are having a lot of fun.

8:21 p.m. How loud is the band? I have ear candy in my ears, Dr Who the Mutant Phase playing and I can’t hear it over the band, on the plus side the Band is pretty good.

8:25 p.m. BTW did I forget to mention that I was introduced to Pam Geller a couple of hours ago (charming lady) and that Ace of Spades grabbed a spot between me and Dan.?

8:38 p.m. Net went down snarfing a nearby one. I normally wouldn’t do that, but I just interviewed Scott Brown’s brother Bruce and I want to get it it up.

8:57 p.m. Net is back up but believe it or not it was down while I questioned Scott’s brother Bruce and then Mitt Romney.

8:58 p.m. The crowd is cheering for a 5 point lead so far, I can’t get excited for something that I’ve already decided has happened.

8:59 p.m. I asked Gov Romney if the republicans can exploit the victory tonight, he didn’t like the word exploit but said that republicans can win if they support lower taxes, less government blah blah blah… Reasked the question saying how do we make this Berlin 1991 instead of Hungary 1958, same generic answer, before I could press on how to recruit candidates etc the national media started to swarm.

9:02 p.m. I asked about the dangers of the exceptions game due to the victory (that I’ve already claimed has happened we just don’t “know” it yet) he maintains that Scott is down to earth enough to not over promise and has the willingness to work very hard to achieve the goals he has set.

…with Dan Collins by my side and press credentials on our fedoras. Stacy is currently being interviews Breitbart TV streaming here.

The mood in the press room seems quiet I don’t think the enormity of what is going to happen has hit yet. I almost wish I was at the Coakley place since the reactions there are not only going to be priceless but the news in terms of what and how the democrats react will really determine if this resounds in Massachusetts the way it will all over the country.

with Stacy and Dan Collins to take our promised seats on blog row.

Late report from the RightWingGammer, in Newburyport, normally he would expect D+15; today it’s too close to call.

He also has some good advice:

DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT think this is in the bag! Go, vote, then celebrate, but no earlier than 7:00PM please. Make the liberals there think differently. Catch them by surprise.

Update finally tally from Newburyport: Coakley by 1

In normal times candidates are looking for a strong person on the top of the ballot to increase turnout for people below it who do not have name recognition but share the party of that top name.

As we’ve reported here before, the one constant in this race has been that people do NOT like Martha Coakley (not even her supporters, I’ve run into only 3 who actually like her). Even with the superstars of the Democratic Party around her, she can not draw crowds comparable to Brown.

When you have an unpopular person at the top of the ticket, the dynamic reverses you need races on a local level that people care about to get your core voters to turn out.

But there is no other race, she is alone, she is trailing in the polls and it is cold and snowy. As of 1:44 p.m. there is STILL no person holding a sign for Coakley at ward 6.

The local democratic pols have absolutely no skin in this race and they see the probability of their regular voters ready to vote republican. They are not going to spend their political capital on a race that appears to be lost for no political reward.

There is nothing local at stake

Update: It’s one thing for the local pols to sit back and do nothing, this is quite another:

He is the president of an American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) local in Worcester and says that he is one of three officials of the local who is supporting Republican Scott Brown.

There is top-down pressure from AFSCME pressuring locals to support Democrat Martha Coakley, but the president of this local (there are multiple AFSCME locals in Worcester) says he tosses those directives “straight in the garbage.”

Make sure you read the last line in that story.

Turnout is steady at the polling station at the Senior center, more signs for the local Sheriff candidate and one sign holder for Brown. He’s getting a lot of positive feedback from the passers by. When asked if anyone showed up for Coakley they said one person stayed 30 seconds and left leaving three Martha Coakley signs turned face down against the building.

He Believes this is going to be the start of something big in the state for republicans.

Update: Stacy’s site is down again.

Update 2: Ran into the Mayor Lisa Wong as she prepared to go to vote, she was enthusiastic in her support for Martha Coakley who she has known personally since she was a young girl.

She thought the turnout might be lighter not just because of the weather but due to “election fatigue” due to so many special elections in so short a time.

When asked to predict the results she did not hesitate to proclaim that Martha Coakley would win the day. She lamented that the race seemed to be turning on national issues rather than local ones but praised contested elections “Contested elections keep us honest”.

Scott Brown certainly seems to providing a contested election.

Update 3: She might be more hesitant if she saw Stacy’s interview with Annie DiMartino. Annie is an old school Tip O’Neill pol. She would NEVER suggest on camera that Brown had the edge if there was the slightest chance for Coakley today.

Oh and one other thing: Annie is a saint and a friend. She never opened her diner on Saturdays because she used it as a base to organize supplies to food banks and directly to the poor and hungry. Anybody who says a bad word about Annie in my presence will have to deal with me.

Update 4: Would you believe I just got a call about a computer job. Absolutely no time to answer the questionnaire right now but I was able to discover that the person calling was a Massachusetts resident and will likely be voting for Scott Brown later in the day.

Update 5: Moran Square Dinner: The feeling there is the same as Mike Barnicle, Coakley ran a horrible Campaign. Among the customers who pass through she runs THIRD behind Brown and Kennedy.

…from people I know:

Leominster: Staunch Democrats wicked scared at what they are seeing.

Worcester: Democratic foot soldiers on the ground worried and discouraged.

Update: Got a call from a friend looking for tech support, no time to debug her system but asked her about the election, she dislikes both candidates but will vote Coakley as the lesser of two evils. That is the the race in a nutshell.

Ok the time for dithering and for hesitating is over, it is now election day and it’s time for me to directly say what I think the result will be rather than hinting.

I am called DaTechGuy, I do tech support, that is all about looking at a system and deciding what is going on based upon the data that we see.

I have been to events on both sides: Scott Brown’s people are excited, the Coakley people are going through the motions.

The Scott Brown people can’t WAIT to vote, the Martha Coakley people (and by some reports the candidate herself) are discouraged and dispirited.

The Brown people draw huge crowd wherever they go. Coakley rallies I’ve attended were at colleges where many of the students who attended them were not voters. At the Brown rallies a one or two Coakley supports would attend. At the Worcester event with Bill Clinton more registered voters were outside holding Brown signs than inside to see the president. In Boston proper, the city of Tip O’Neill the Brown supporters countering the president’s appearance dwarfed those who were outside for Coakley.

When debugging a system you go where the data takes you. I still have a bit of that pre-2004 Red Sox Fatalism that all Massachusetts residents born before 1985 have, it drove my early skepticism, but the data is the data and from what I’ve seen I there can only be one conclusion:

I say Scott Brown is going to win this race and I don’t think it is going to be close.

Update: Via Glenn Reynolds: Zogby is predicting a Coakley win. He is a big time pollster and I’m an overweight Sicilian in a fedora so attention must be paid. I have seen absolutely no evidence of this on the trail unless that small hint at the Coakley rally on Friday means more than it suggested.

Update 2: We use paper ballots in Fitchburg (glenn will be pleased) so if anything funny goes on it won’t be here.

Update 3: If this report by Michelle is indicative of the tactics being used by the Attorney General’s supporters then they are just fools.

There is nothing more likely to guarantee a full scale electoral revolt in this state and an even larger one nationwide than a stolen election here. This is short term political thinking live for the moment thinking.