DaTechGuy March 24 2011:
#3 The partition/administration of Libya. Almost certainly the final result. The west without US leadership doesn’t have the staying power or the willingness to actually win the war or commit the ground troops necessary to do so. Sans such will the end result will be a deal to save face for the west that allows Gaddafi’s family in charge of the east where his tribe lives and the rebels in charge of the west. That allows Gaddafi to claim a victory over the west while the west claims success in its mission even as the east is purged of supporters of the rebellion.
The Washington Post Friday:
U.S. officials are becoming increasingly resigned to the possibility of a protracted stalemate in Libya, with rebels retaining control of the eastern half of the divided country but lacking the muscle to drive Moammar Gaddafi from power.
Makes that whole “not naming a withdrawal date” bit that the Bush administration argued in Iraq and Afghanistan sound a whole lot smarter doesn’t it?
Then again could this be the Sir Humphrey foreign policy in action again?
Sir Richard Wharton: …we should have partitioned the Island
Sir Humphrey: Oh you mean like we did in India, Cyprus and Palestine and Ireland?
Sir Richard Wharton: Yes that was our invariable practice when we gave independence to the colonies, it always worked.
Sir Humphrey: But didn’t partition always lead to civil war? it did in India, Cyprus and Palestine and Ireland?
Sir Richard Wharton: Yes but it kept them busy, instead of fighting other people they confined themselves to fighting each other
“He told us that on Thursday night a new shipment of Katyusha rockets had been sent into eastern Libya from Egypt. He didn’t say they were sourced from Egypt, but that was their route through.
“He said these were state-of-the-art, heat-seeking rockets and that they needed to be trained on how to use them, which was one of the things the American and Egyptian special forces were there to do.”