Want an accurate re-election number for Obama, poll people at the pump.

by Datechguy | April 25th, 2011

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Want an accurate re-election number for Obama, poll people at the pump.

As I went out to do my door to door for the radio show I went to get gas at the low­est price sta­tion in town and paid $3.829 per gal­lon, almost 60 cents more than just a month or two ago.

I took the lib­erty of talk­ing to other peo­ple there as we filled. One on a fixed income who can’t afford what he is pay­ing, another a white-​collar worker shak­ing his head say­ing we just have to take it, and a third a blue-​collar employee whose boss can’t afford a pay raise or even the reg­u­lar hourly rate for his job as he copes with the higher priced gas. All agree we are near or at the break­ing point.

And here in Fitch­burg Gas prices are lower than most of the state and much of the coun­try. If peo­ple are say­ing this about gas at $3.820 what will they be say­ing when it reaches $4, $5?

Any­thing who thinks Pres­i­dent Obama will get re-​elected with gas prices in their cur­rent state is out of their mind.

Update: A reminder of a promise kept

Update 2: Chris is talk­ing trends, let’s remind Chris what caused that trend to be bucked:

See that big peak in the mid­dle? That was the last oil spike, in the sum­mer of 2008. Notice how the price hit a high point, then fell off a cliff afterwards?

The day cor­re­spond­ing to that peak, an all-​time high of $145.16/barrel, was July 14, 2008. By some strange coin­ci­dence, that was the very same day then-​President George W. Bush lifted, by exec­u­tive order, a fed­eral ban on off­shore oil drilling.

Bush’s order was, of course, imme­di­ately dis­missed by the “experts.” Reuters waved away the action as “a largely sym­bolic move unlikely to have any short-​term impact on high gaso­line costs.” Barack Obama’s cam­paign lec­tured that if “off­shore drilling would pro­vide short-​term relief at the pump or a long-​term strat­egy for energy inde­pen­dence, it would be wor­thy of our con­sid­er­a­tion, regard­less of the risks. But most experts, even within the Bush admin­is­tra­tion, con­cede it would do neither.”

Yet the end result was sur­prise surprise:

For com­modi­ties traders who’d been pric­ing oil based on a sup­po­si­tion of scarcity, the poten­tial for mil­lions of addi­tional bar­rels on the mar­ket hit like a thun­der­bolt. The sim­ple act of putting America’s resources on the table popped the oil bub­ble, and a stun­ning price drop fol­lowed in short order. By elec­tion day, Novem­ber 4, the price of a bar­rel of crude had plum­meted to $70.84 — a 51% decrease in less than five months.

And Obama:

Bush exec­u­tive order was offi­cially reversed on Feb­ru­ary 82011.

The price of crude that day was $85.85. By April 19, it had risen to $107.18, with no end in sight.

Color me unsurprised.

As I went out to do my door to door for the radio show I went to get gas at the lowest price station in town and paid $3.829 per gallon, almost 60 cents more than just a month or two ago.

I took the liberty of talking to other people there as we filled. One on a fixed income who can’t afford what he is paying, another a white-collar worker shaking his head saying we just have to take it, and a third a blue-collar employee whose boss can’t afford a pay raise or even the regular hourly rate for his job as he copes with the higher priced gas. All agree we are near or at the breaking point.

And here in Fitchburg Gas prices are lower than most of the state and much of the country. If people are saying this about gas at $3.820 what will they be saying when it reaches $4, $5?

Anything who thinks President Obama will get re-elected with gas prices in their current state is out of their mind.

Update: A reminder of a promise kept

Update 2: Chris is talking trends, let’s remind Chris what caused that trend to be bucked:

See that big peak in the middle? That was the last oil spike, in the summer of 2008. Notice how the price hit a high point, then fell off a cliff afterwards?

The day corresponding to that peak, an all-time high of $145.16/barrel, was July 14, 2008. By some strange coincidence, that was the very same day then-President George W. Bush lifted, by executive order, a federal ban on offshore oil drilling.

Bush’s order was, of course, immediately dismissed by the “experts.” Reuters waved away the action as “a largely symbolic move unlikely to have any short-term impact on high gasoline costs.” Barack Obama’s campaign lectured that if “offshore drilling would provide short-term relief at the pump or a long-term strategy for energy independence, it would be worthy of our consideration, regardless of the risks. But most experts, even within the Bush administration, concede it would do neither.”

Yet the end result was surprise surprise:

For commodities traders who’d been pricing oil based on a supposition of scarcity, the potential for millions of additional barrels on the market hit like a thunderbolt. The simple act of putting America’s resources on the table popped the oil bubble, and a stunning price drop followed in short order. By election day, November 4, the price of a barrel of crude had plummeted to $70.84 — a 51% decrease in less than five months.

And Obama:

Bush executive order was officially reversed on February 8, 2011.

The price of crude that day was $85.85. By April 19, it had risen to $107.18, with no end in sight.

Color me unsurprised.

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