“I think President Obama will do just fine.” Mika Brzezinski Morning Joe 8/11/11 on his re-election prospects.
“Now I probably wouldn’t say this in front of white folks but in front of y’all I’ll speak my mind” Cedric the Entertainer as Eddie in Barbershop 2002
In the electoral math for 2012 one factor in every calculation is Barack Obama will generate a large black turnout and win between 90-95% of their vote. It is the security blanket that Democrats cling to, the cornerstone of the house of cards the liberals are building.
However that cornerstone, although looking strong from the outside may not be as solid inside.
On Morning Joe today we saw Tavis Smiley and Cornel West hinting at the weakness of this president while doing their best to avoid saying it aloud or hitting him directly. I found the appearance extraordinary. Yes they are pushing their radio show and tour, but the willingness to tweak ever, so slightly the president outside of their community spoke volumes.
I don’t know the demographics of Morning Joe but I have the feeling they do not serve an overwhelmingly black audience.
I’ve already commented on how the black community is the cornerstone of the president’s polling:
The black community runs 90-95% Democratic and voted that way last election. If you think that more than one in 20 black Americans are going to tell a national pollster that they disapprove of the first Black President you are absolutely out of your minds.
At the same time Stacy McCain has the numbers:
The most recent figures show African American joblessness at 16.2 percent. For black males, it’s at 17.5 percent; And for black teens, it’s nearly 41 percent.
(those are June figures btw)
Roxeanne’s correct explanation for the gap not withstanding, the Peggy Josephs and the “Obama Money” crowd in Detroit expected great things for themselves; instead got a president who has kept his distance from the community that provided his most loyal support.
The result? That’s the question. We are seeing only slight glimpses of discontent, but what is it that we aren’t seeing?
Let’s say it aloud: If Barack Obama had Jimmy Carter’s pigmentation there would be democrats lining up to primary him with slogans like: “We can do better” and “Let’s nominate a fighter for the working man“. Those potential candidates are discouraged by the party because if even 10% of the black community abandons them, democrats become unelectable.
I’m sure that if I went back to Ga-4 and asked the overwhelmingly black community there: “Do you support the president?” I’d be told YES overwhelmingly. If my friend George, a black minister in that same community asked that question I suspect he would get a more nuanced response.
This is the wild card in election 2012. Behind closed doors is the black community having conversations like this about the president?
I suspect they are and have been for several months. If I’m right then this election is going to be a bigger disaster for democrats than 2010 was.