C.S. Lewis The Screwtape letters

The characteristic of Pains and Pleasures is that they are unmistakably real, and therefore, as far as they go, give the man who feels them a touchstone of reality.

Zero Mostel & Leon Greene: A funny thing happened on the way to the forum

Pseudolus: (to Hysterium) Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus: [beat] It’s time.

While MSNBC and company tout last night’s Obama speech, anticipating its use as a mighty sword to slay the GOP dragon, two small special elections are suddenly appearing on the national radar. Nv-2 and NY-9.

The race in the NV-2 is not expected to produce a lot of drama. In the 30 years the district has existed it has never elected a democrat, although there has been a few close races. By an odd coincidence just after Ladd Ehlinger’s latest ad in the district we see Democrats folding the tent:

In truth, the party has all but given up on winning; early-voting numbers show a sluggish Democratic turnout, suggesting that Amodei is en route to a big win.

NY-9 is another matter: It elected its first democrat in 1836 twenty years before the GOP even existed. In 154 years since the party was formed and 70+ elections they ran in the district, Republicans have won 5, the last when Woodrow Wilson. was in the white house.

However Barack Obama has changed the equation and the numbers are looking good for Bob Turner.

Robert Stacy McCain:

There’s good reason for the Democrats to panic: A poll conducted last week showed Turner leading 44%-40% with 12% undecided.

Mickey Kaus:

The Public Policy Polling surveys affiliated with Markos Moulitsas’ Daily Kos web site have established a track record for off-year accuracy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to succeed Jane Harman in my own district. (CA-36). They were right in the Wisconsin recall elections. So I’ve been eagerly awaiting their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-9. Now we have some indication as to which way it will go, in the form of twitters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, including this one:

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

Big Government:

Republican Bob Turner holds a 6-point lead over Democrat rival David Weprin, 50-44, in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in New York’s 9th congressional district, as the campaign heads into its final days ahead of the special election on Tuesday, September 13. The lead is significant, outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error, and suggests that Turner heads into Tuesday’s contest as the slim favorite.

Daily Kos:

David Weprin Might Lose —NEEDS HELP!

Now before you start thinking that Bob Turner is the second coming of Oscar W. Swift (the only Republican in history to be re-elected in ny-9) lets concede he has one intrinsic advantage over democrat David Weprin. He actually lives in the district:

That’s nice. So the Democrats are running a man who doesn’t live int he district and has no plans to move into it if he should win. I wonder how that would be spun in the media if Turner lived outside the district.

When you have Democratic heavyweights like Pelosi and Hilderbrand taking a personal interest in a race that shouldn’t even be close this means trouble.

With this election right on the heels of the presidential speech that the media trumpeted for weeks as a gamechanger such a once is a century defeat will be tough to spin away:

Barack Obama’s approval rating is 43 percent in the poll, against a 54 percent disapproval rating. So if they lose Democrats are going to struggle to explain how the election was a fluke, and not evidence that Barack Obama’s new jobs push is doomed. It won’t be like the loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, which enabled Republicans to filibuster bills, but it’s one less vote, and one unwelcome talking point just five days after his Big Speech.

That’s Dave Weigel writing for Slate, that well-known bastion of GOP thought.

And the spin has already begun as you can tell from tweets like this via Kerry Picket:

If democrats lose in NY-9 it is going to be seen as a repudiation of Barack Obama directly after his major speech. While the media will do their best to spin it otherwise Democrats in congress and democrats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this president will see this result and ask: “Am I willing to put my political future in Barack Obama’s hands?”

I think the answer to that question will make or break many a democrat.

So to anybody believing the MSM spin concerning Obama’s electability and the GOP’s field’s weakness I have one thing to say:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Update: Ladd Ehlinger and the surfing Rabbi have weighed in, does that mean it’s all over?

So has Yid with Lid

Erick Erickson is the latest entry in the Sarah Palin angst among some on the right:

To paraphrase Ann, a lot of us fell in love with Sarah Palin because of her enemies and a lot of us have fallen out of love with Sarah Palin because of her fans.

He means Ann Coulter who had similar words.

The Hill found a tea party group unhappy with Palin and ran with it

Wary that some are joining the grassroots conservative movement merely to sell books and enhance their celebrity status, a Tea Party group is putting the heat on former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to make her presidential plans clear.

In a Tuesday statement, Armed Forces Tea Party Patriots paints former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin as the prime example of that kind of behavior.

I’ve never heard of the “armed forces tea party patriots” and I’ll wager you haven’t either, the Hill quoted a press statement because as we know the best way for a republican or a tea party group to get favorable press coverage is to hit a conservative or Sarah Palin. In my experience it’s rather odd for a military group to attack mothers of serving servicemen but lets give that a pass for the moment.

When people as young as Meridith Jessup jumped in Robert Stacy McCain has this to say:

This is where I play the “I’ve got ties older than you, kid”

Dan Riehl also has only snark for those going after Palin noting the MSM doesn’t like Perry either:

Well, I guess the collective wisdom of this sub-set of our illustrious talking heads who so often talk to hear themselves talk thinks we should just go on and nominate Romney, or we don’t stand a chance, right? Funny who some folks choose to call out and who they don’t, don’t ya think? heh!

And at the right scoop this tidbit came out:

Bill Clinton didn’t announce his candidacy until October 3, 1991. Reagan waited until November 11, 1979. We know how those two campaigns worked out. Just a little historical perspective to keep in mind.

Meanwhile while people on the right were busy getting their knickers in a twist Sarah Palin was doing what she does, hitting back against Hoffa for his nonsense:

So, now these union bosses are desperately trying to cast the grassroots Tea Party Movement as being “against the workingman.” How outrageously wrong this unapologetic Jim Hoffa is, for the people’s movement is the real movement for working class men and women. It’s rooted in real solidarity, and not special interests and corporate kickbacks. It represents the needed reform that will empower workers and job creators. We stand with the little guy against the corruption and influence peddling of those who collude to grease the wheels of government power.

I guess Palin knows Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment better than those on the right. As they complain about her and her supporters, she keeps her cool (as usual) and keeps fighting the left as she did when nobody else was willing.

She is plaything the Mohicans to her critics and rivals Major Heyward:

I’ve known Chingachgook since we both were young. I knew Uncas’ mother. I’ve known Uncas since he was born. Major Heyward. I don’t know you. If we have to fight back to back, it’s possible that you might run. I don’t think you will, but you might. I’ve fought back to back with these Mohicans father and son, and they didn’t run.

Be honest, in a fight who would you like to have your back more than Palin? Who has been more vetted? Who else do you know will not run when confronted by the left’s smear machine?

Ya wanna know what the real problem is: now that we are in a 24/7 Cable News Cycle the demand for everything NOW has infected many on the right and six months has become a cultural eternity for people. Add to that a collection of GOP political campaigns that all want a piece of Palin’s supporters and their campaign money, and presto you have angst from the right that the MSM can gleefully tout.

Let’s face it, all the hand wringing everyone doing is going to mean absolutely nothing in six months.

Until Sarah Palin announces, she’s not running, and if and when she does she is. Till then stop worrying about it.

Any questions?