C.S. Lewis The Screwtape letters
The characteristic of Pains and Pleasures is that they are unmistakably real, and therefore, as far as they go, give the man who feels them a touchstone of reality.
Zero Mostel & Leon Greene: A funny thing happened on the way to the forum
Pseudolus: (to Hysterium) Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus: [beat] It’s time.
While MSNBC and company tout last night’s Obama speech, anticipating its use as a mighty sword to slay the GOP dragon, two small special elections are suddenly appearing on the national radar. Nv-2 and NY-9.
The race in the NV-2 is not expected to produce a lot of drama. In the 30 years the district has existed it has never elected a democrat, although there has been a few close races. By an odd coincidence just after Ladd Ehlinger’s latest ad in the district we see Democrats folding the tent:
In truth, the party has all but given up on winning; early-voting numbers show a sluggish Democratic turnout, suggesting that Amodei is en route to a big win.
NY-9 is another matter: It elected its first democrat in 1836 twenty years before the GOP even existed. In 154 years since the party was formed and 70+ elections they ran in the district, Republicans have won 5, the last when Woodrow Wilson. was in the white house.
However Barack Obama has changed the equation and the numbers are looking good for Bob Turner.
There’s good reason for the Democrats to panic: A poll conducted last week showed Turner leading 44%-40% with 12% undecided.
The Public Policy Polling surveys affiliated with Markos Moulitsas’ Daily Kos web site have established a track record for off-year accuracy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to succeed Jane Harman in my own district. (CA-36). They were right in the Wisconsin recall elections. So I’ve been eagerly awaiting their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-9. Now we have some indication as to which way it will go, in the form of twitters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, including this one:
My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.
Republican Bob Turner holds a 6-point lead over Democrat rival David Weprin, 50-44, in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in New York’s 9th congressional district, as the campaign heads into its final days ahead of the special election on Tuesday, September 13. The lead is significant, outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error, and suggests that Turner heads into Tuesday’s contest as the slim favorite.
David Weprin Might Lose —NEEDS HELP!
Now before you start thinking that Bob Turner is the second coming of Oscar W. Swift (the only Republican in history to be re-elected in ny-9) lets concede he has one intrinsic advantage over democrat David Weprin. He actually lives in the district:
That’s nice. So the Democrats are running a man who doesn’t live int he district and has no plans to move into it if he should win. I wonder how that would be spun in the media if Turner lived outside the district.
With this election right on the heels of the presidential speech that the media trumpeted for weeks as a gamechanger such a once is a century defeat will be tough to spin away:
Barack Obama’s approval rating is 43 percent in the poll, against a 54 percent disapproval rating. So if they lose Democrats are going to struggle to explain how the election was a fluke, and not evidence that Barack Obama’s new jobs push is doomed. It won’t be like the loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, which enabled Republicans to filibuster bills, but it’s one less vote, and one unwelcome talking point just five days after his Big Speech.
And the spin has already begun as you can tell from tweets like this via Kerry Picket:
If democrats lose in NY-9 it is going to be seen as a repudiation of Barack Obama directly after his major speech. While the media will do their best to spin it otherwise Democrats in congress and democrats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this president will see this result and ask: “Am I willing to put my political future in Barack Obama’s hands?”
I think the answer to that question will make or break many a democrat.
So to anybody believing the MSM spin concerning Obama’s electability and the GOP’s field’s weakness I have one thing to say:
Update: Ladd Ehlinger and the surfing Rabbi have weighed in, does that mean it’s all over?
So has Yid with Lid