Words in Washington, Reality in NV-2 & NY-9

by Datechguy | September 9th, 2011

Readability

Words in Washington, Reality in NV-2 & NY-9

C.S. Lewis The Screw­tape letters

The char­ac­ter­is­tic of Pains and Plea­sures is that they are unmis­tak­ably real, and there­fore, as far as they go, give the man who feels them a touch­stone of real­ity.

Zero Mos­tel & Leon Greene: A funny thing hap­pened on the way to the forum

Pseudo­lus: (to Hys­terium) Calm your­self down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Glo­rio­sus: I smell mis­chief here!
Pseudo­lus: [beat] It’s time.

While MSNBC and com­pany tout last night’s Obama speech, antic­i­pat­ing its use as a mighty sword to slay the GOP dragon, two small spe­cial elec­tions are sud­denly appear­ing on the national radar. Nv-​2 and NY-​9.

The race in the NV-​2 is not expected to pro­duce a lot of drama. In the 30 years the dis­trict has existed it has never elected a demo­c­rat, although there has been a few close races. By an odd coin­ci­dence just after Ladd Ehlinger’s lat­est ad in the dis­trict we see Democ­rats fold­ing the tent:

In truth, the party has all but given up on win­ning; early-​voting num­bers show a slug­gish Demo­c­ra­tic turnout, sug­gest­ing that Amodei is en route to a big win.

NY-​9 is another mat­ter: It elected its first demo­c­rat in 1836 twenty years before the GOP even existed. In 154 years since the party was formed and 70+ elec­tions they ran in the dis­trict, Repub­li­cans have won 5, the last when Woodrow Wil­son. was in the white house.

How­ever Barack Obama has changed the equa­tion and the num­bers are look­ing good for Bob Turner.

Robert Stacy McCain:

There’s good rea­son for the Democ­rats to panic: A poll con­ducted last week showed Turner lead­ing 44%-40% with 12% undecided.

Mickey Kaus:

The Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling sur­veys affil­i­ated with Markos Moulit­sas’ Daily Kos web site have estab­lished a track record for off-​year accu­racy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to suc­ceed Jane Har­man in my own dis­trict. (CA-​36). They were right in the Wis­con­sin recall elec­tions. So I’ve been eagerly await­ing their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-​9. Now we have some indi­ca­tion as to which way it will go, in the form of twit­ters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, includ­ing this one:

My pretty straight for­ward take on the first night of our NY-​9 poll: Dems in BIG trou­ble. It deserves the caps.

Big Gov­ern­ment:

Repub­li­can Bob Turner holds a 6-​point lead over Demo­c­rat rival David Weprin, 5044, in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in New York’s 9th con­gres­sional dis­trict, as the cam­paign heads into its final days ahead of the spe­cial elec­tion on Tues­day, Sep­tem­ber 13. The lead is sig­nif­i­cant, out­side the poll’s 3-​point mar­gin of error, and sug­gests that Turner heads into Tuesday’s con­test as the slim favorite.

Daily Kos:

David Weprin Might Lose —NEEDS HELP!

Now before you start think­ing that Bob Turner is the sec­ond com­ing of Oscar W. Swift (the only Repub­li­can in his­tory to be re-​elected in ny-​9) lets con­cede he has one intrin­sic advan­tage over demo­c­rat David Weprin. He actu­ally lives in the dis­trict:

That’s nice. So the Democ­rats are run­ning a man who doesn’t live int he dis­trict and has no plans to move into it if he should win. I won­der how that would be spun in the media if Turner lived out­side the district.

When you have Demo­c­ra­tic heavy­weights like Pelosi and Hilder­brand tak­ing a per­sonal inter­est in a race that shouldn’t even be close this means trouble.

With this elec­tion right on the heels of the pres­i­den­tial speech that the media trum­peted for weeks as a gamechanger such a once is a cen­tury defeat will be tough to spin away:

Barack Obama’s approval rat­ing is 43 per­cent in the poll, against a 54 per­cent dis­ap­proval rat­ing. So if they lose Democ­rats are going to strug­gle to explain how the elec­tion was a fluke, and not evi­dence that Barack Obama’s new jobs push is doomed. It won’t be like the loss of Ted Kennedy’s Sen­ate seat, which enabled Repub­li­cans to fil­i­buster bills, but it’s one less vote, and one unwel­come talk­ing point just five days after his Big Speech.

That’s Dave Weigel writ­ing for Slate, that well-​known bas­tion of GOP thought.

And the spin has already begun as you can tell from tweets like this via Kerry Picket:

If democ­rats lose in NY-​9 it is going to be seen as a repu­di­a­tion of Barack Obama directly after his major speech. While the media will do their best to spin it oth­er­wise Democ­rats in con­gress and democ­rats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this pres­i­dent will see this result and ask: “Am I will­ing to put my polit­i­cal future in Barack Obama’s hands?”

I think the answer to that ques­tion will make or break many a democrat.

So to any­body believ­ing the MSM spin con­cern­ing Obama’s elec­tabil­ity and the GOP’s field’s weak­ness I have one thing to say:

“Ride right through them, they’re demor­al­ized as hell”!

Update: Ladd Ehlinger and the surf­ing Rabbi have weighed in, does that mean it’s all over?

So has Yid with Lid

C.S. Lewis The Screwtape letters

The characteristic of Pains and Pleasures is that they are unmistakably real, and therefore, as far as they go, give the man who feels them a touchstone of reality.

Zero Mostel & Leon Greene: A funny thing happened on the way to the forum

Pseudolus: (to Hysterium) Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus: [beat] It’s time.

While MSNBC and company tout last night’s Obama speech, anticipating its use as a mighty sword to slay the GOP dragon, two small special elections are suddenly appearing on the national radar. Nv-2 and NY-9.

The race in the NV-2 is not expected to produce a lot of drama. In the 30 years the district has existed it has never elected a democrat, although there has been a few close races. By an odd coincidence just after Ladd Ehlinger’s latest ad in the district we see Democrats folding the tent:

In truth, the party has all but given up on winning; early-voting numbers show a sluggish Democratic turnout, suggesting that Amodei is en route to a big win.

NY-9 is another matter: It elected its first democrat in 1836 twenty years before the GOP even existed. In 154 years since the party was formed and 70+ elections they ran in the district, Republicans have won 5, the last when Woodrow Wilson. was in the white house.

However Barack Obama has changed the equation and the numbers are looking good for Bob Turner.

Robert Stacy McCain:

There’s good reason for the Democrats to panic: A poll conducted last week showed Turner leading 44%-40% with 12% undecided.

Mickey Kaus:

The Public Policy Polling surveys affiliated with Markos Moulitsas’ Daily Kos web site have established a track record for off-year accuracy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to succeed Jane Harman in my own district. (CA-36). They were right in the Wisconsin recall elections. So I’ve been eagerly awaiting their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-9. Now we have some indication as to which way it will go, in the form of twitters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, including this one:

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

Big Government:

Republican Bob Turner holds a 6-point lead over Democrat rival David Weprin, 50-44, in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in New York’s 9th congressional district, as the campaign heads into its final days ahead of the special election on Tuesday, September 13. The lead is significant, outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error, and suggests that Turner heads into Tuesday’s contest as the slim favorite.

Daily Kos:

David Weprin Might Lose —NEEDS HELP!

Now before you start thinking that Bob Turner is the second coming of Oscar W. Swift (the only Republican in history to be re-elected in ny-9) lets concede he has one intrinsic advantage over democrat David Weprin. He actually lives in the district:

That’s nice. So the Democrats are running a man who doesn’t live int he district and has no plans to move into it if he should win. I wonder how that would be spun in the media if Turner lived outside the district.

When you have Democratic heavyweights like Pelosi and Hilderbrand taking a personal interest in a race that shouldn’t even be close this means trouble.

With this election right on the heels of the presidential speech that the media trumpeted for weeks as a gamechanger such a once is a century defeat will be tough to spin away:

Barack Obama’s approval rating is 43 percent in the poll, against a 54 percent disapproval rating. So if they lose Democrats are going to struggle to explain how the election was a fluke, and not evidence that Barack Obama’s new jobs push is doomed. It won’t be like the loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, which enabled Republicans to filibuster bills, but it’s one less vote, and one unwelcome talking point just five days after his Big Speech.

That’s Dave Weigel writing for Slate, that well-known bastion of GOP thought.

And the spin has already begun as you can tell from tweets like this via Kerry Picket:

If democrats lose in NY-9 it is going to be seen as a repudiation of Barack Obama directly after his major speech. While the media will do their best to spin it otherwise Democrats in congress and democrats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this president will see this result and ask: “Am I willing to put my political future in Barack Obama’s hands?”

I think the answer to that question will make or break many a democrat.

So to anybody believing the MSM spin concerning Obama’s electability and the GOP’s field’s weakness I have one thing to say:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Update: Ladd Ehlinger and the surfing Rabbi have weighed in, does that mean it’s all over?

So has Yid with Lid

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