…begging the question: “Do we want to stop funding these guys and maybe save a couple of billion?”
Egypt’s Islamist-dominated parliament unanimously voted on Monday in support of expelling Israel’s ambassador in Cairo and halting gas exports to the Jewish state.
As we’ve stated before it’s the army that’s actually in charge so what does this really mean?
The motion is largely symbolic, because only the ruling military council can make such decisions, and it is not likely to impact Egypt’s relations with Israel. But it signals the seismic change in Egypt after the ouster of longtime leader and Israel ally Hosni Mubarak a year ago in a popular uprising that ended his 29 years in power.
I think the Army will use this to say: “We need those US funds to keep the brotherhood from doing these things.” The Army will take the money and spread it around to their guys as they’ve always done, meanwhile the Muslim brotherhood will claim it’s share of the dough. Allahpundit see the following:
So in theory, if/when parliament finally has real power and begins to collect western foreign aid (i.e. bribes), the Islamists will be more circumspect about their demagogic gambits. I’ve never bought that, though, for two reasons: (1) no doubt there are plenty of MPs, especially in the Salafist wing, who really do feel this way and want another go at smashing “the Zionist entity,” and (2) even among the ones who don’t, the temptation to sink into Jew-hatred as a populist distraction once they try and fail to solve the country’s economic problems will probably prove irresistible. They’ll end up pushing for war because that’s all they’ll have to offer.
And that is where the clash will come. The Military has become rich and fat with peace and US aid and has done it without getting slaughtered in wars with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist’s in theory would love actual war with Israel and believe in it. They have been fed the propaganda for thirty years of victories that never happened, the military however knows differently but the reality is the military knows it is a war they will lose, badly.
It take time an attrition but eventually the Brotherhood and friends will reach a point where they have enough people rising in the military to take over and then they can fight who they please. The question is will the Brotherhood decide it can’t wait and try to force the military into a war they don’t want to fight?
That’s the catch 22, as long as we are paying the military the Muslim brotherhood’s cut will allow them to continue to slowly grow strong enough within the military to make them fight. If we drop funding the military then it becomes the question of which war do they want to fight? The war vs the Muslim Brotherhood that they will win but lose international support, or a war with Israel that they will lose but gain sympathy and funding.
Problem is you can’t live high when you’re dead.