As regular listeners to my radio show and readers might know my Under the Fedora column appears regularly at The Minority Report and the Conservatory.

Starting today Under the Fedora finds its third home at the new site of WCRN’s Conservatively Speaking which has recently launched its new blog.

Conservatively Speaking, featuring Mike Wade and John Weston can be heard Saturday Mornings from 7-9 a.m. on AM 830 WCRN.

I think Bill knows exactly where this election is going, I think Bill knows there is no salvaging things, I think Bill understands that being linked to Obama even in 2016 is going to be the kiss of death for any Democrat.

DaTechGuy Blog June 7th

Today I got an e-mail from the Radio Patriot Andrea Shea King referring me to this post at the American Thinker concerning Bill Clinton and Barack Obama that is THE must read of the day.

I suspect that the Clintons and their allies are spreading the word that smart people are planning for life after Obama, that he is going nowhere, that there will be a reckoning. And that now is the time to distance oneself from what promises to destroy the party if not stopped. Perhaps the time has come to figure out some way to get Obama off the ticket. Somehow.

It would have to be a covert op. No Democrat who ever wants to carry a black precinct can be seen as slipping in the stiletto. It has to have the appearance of Obama voluntarily announcing that he will not be a candidate for re-election. Just as LBJ did on March 31, 1968. For the good of the country, his family, maybe his for his health. His medical records have never been released, after all.

I don’t think it’s possible at this late stage in the game for the Democrats to get Obama off the ticket, however it makes sense in one regard. No democrat would dare primary the first Black president, but if he for whatever reason suddenly choose not to run that’s a different story.

Do I think this is going on? There are a lot of Democrats who would like to Torricelli Obama but not a single one can be seen to do so. Even with the Black vote wavering any suspicion that a backroom deal was made to dump Obama might be the last straw, and the Democrat coalition has no room for error.

But in the end I think its all smoke, the Democrats will be the smart thing and take the hit now with Obama and rebuild counting on Romney’s lack of personality to bake the difference in 2016. Elections come and go and losing one is part of the game, but any effort that risks detaching the black vote from the Democrat party is simply a bridge too far.

My suspicions from August have now been confirmed, in a big way

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today,

Now one could look at this in several ways:

1. The Black Community, thanks to the election of President Obama “breaking the dam” have now gone beyond “Race” as the only factor for picking a president and it’s about time too. (If polls showed only 20% of whites willing to vote for a non-white candidate it would be a considered a sign of racism).

2. The economy is so bad that the Black Community is willing to make an exception in this case (think of Norway & Quisling on a much less serious scale).

3. Gay Marriage has changed the equation. Maggie Gallagher at NRO looks at the numbers and says:

One in five black voters in North Carolina actually say they will vote for Romney. The economy? Maybe, but few Republicans have ever won that share of the black vote even when times were tough. A lot of black pastors are pretty upset with President Obama for endorsing gay marriage (see the Coalition for African-American Pastors new petition), and it looks like some of their flocks are as well.

I think everybody is missing the real blockbuster nature of these numbers.

I have long thought that there is an undercurrent of discontent in the black community with the performance of this administration. I felt the Gay Marriage decision was a watershed because it provided an excuse for those who wanted to stay home:

imagine you are a Black voter disgusted with the president’s record but getting pressure over racial solidarity. The Gay Marriage suddenly makes staying home a matter of sticking with your Pastor and your God.

I expected such a thing to take place quietly within the black community and not break into the general conversation. This is far more than that. One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll..

It is that public nature that makes all the difference because it reinforces what other Black Americans may be thinking in other states but are hesitant to say aloud.

It is a paradigm shift and if it repeats itself beyond North Carolina then this election over.

Exit question: What do Democrats on the ballot in 2012 seeking state and federal level do when asked if they support Barack Obama?

Update: And it’s not just Black Americans

I’ve resisted polling showing Jewish support for Obama slipping as contrary to my life experiences, but it is so bad on so many fronts that even the Jews seem to be coming around to reality

Barack Obama has done what no republican has been able to do, break the hold of the democratic party on groups. Michael Graham said it in 2010, “The greatest maker of Republican voters since Ronald Reagan is Barack Obama”

The Lord certainly works in mysterious ways.

Update 2: Instalanche thanks Glenn, but I still think there is nothing wrong with cocky, as long as it doesn’t mean lazy.

Vodka Pundit at PJ Media also links but I think he slightly misunderstands me. Granted I think Gay Marriage is a big issue faithful black Christians have broken with the administration over it. but I suspect if the Black Community was doing better in this economy a lot of people might have rationalized it away.

What I think Gay Marriage issue did was allow the Black Community to express feelings they already had without being marked as “Race traitors” or “Uncle Toms”. It is that cover more than the issue itself which makes all the difference.

Update 3: Doug Matacoins disagrees with my conclusions in these two posts.

Check out his argument, I sure hope the Democrats buy it.