The Black Voter Dam Breaks

My suspicions from August have now been confirmed, in a big way

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today,

Now one could look at this in several ways:

1. The Black Community, thanks to the election of President Obama “breaking the dam” have now gone beyond “Race” as the only factor for picking a president and it’s about time too. (If polls showed only 20% of whites willing to vote for a non-white candidate it would be a considered a sign of racism).

2. The economy is so bad that the Black Community is willing to make an exception in this case (think of Norway & Quisling on a much less serious scale).

3. Gay Marriage has changed the equation. Maggie Gallagher at NRO looks at the numbers and says:

One in five black voters in North Carolina actually say they will vote for Romney. The economy? Maybe, but few Republicans have ever won that share of the black vote even when times were tough. A lot of black pastors are pretty upset with President Obama for endorsing gay marriage (see the Coalition for African-American Pastors new petition), and it looks like some of their flocks are as well.

I think everybody is missing the real blockbuster nature of these numbers.

I have long thought that there is an undercurrent of discontent in the black community with the performance of this administration. I felt the Gay Marriage decision was a watershed because it provided an excuse for those who wanted to stay home:

imagine you are a Black voter disgusted with the president’s record but getting pressure over racial solidarity. The Gay Marriage suddenly makes staying home a matter of sticking with your Pastor and your God.

I expected such a thing to take place quietly within the black community and not break into the general conversation. This is far more than that. One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll..

It is that public nature that makes all the difference because it reinforces what other Black Americans may be thinking in other states but are hesitant to say aloud.

It is a paradigm shift and if it repeats itself beyond North Carolina then this election over.

Exit question: What do Democrats on the ballot in 2012 seeking state and federal level do when asked if they support Barack Obama?

Update: And it’s not just Black Americans

I’ve resisted polling showing Jewish support for Obama slipping as contrary to my life experiences, but it is so bad on so many fronts that even the Jews seem to be coming around to reality

Barack Obama has done what no republican has been able to do, break the hold of the democratic party on groups. Michael Graham said it in 2010, “The greatest maker of Republican voters since Ronald Reagan is Barack Obama”

The Lord certainly works in mysterious ways.

Update 2: Instalanche thanks Glenn, but I still think there is nothing wrong with cocky, as long as it doesn’t mean lazy.

Vodka Pundit at PJ Media also links but I think he slightly misunderstands me. Granted I think Gay Marriage is a big issue faithful black Christians have broken with the administration over it. but I suspect if the Black Community was doing better in this economy a lot of people might have rationalized it away.

What I think Gay Marriage issue did was allow the Black Community to express feelings they already had without being marked as “Race traitors” or “Uncle Toms”. It is that cover more than the issue itself which makes all the difference.

Update 3: Doug Matacoins disagrees with my conclusions in these two posts.

Check out his argument, I sure hope the Democrats buy it.