The Black Voter Dam Breaks

Readability

The Black Voter Dam Breaks

My sus­pi­cions from August have now been con­firmed, in a big way

Pres­i­dent Barack Obama is rapidly los­ing sup­port among African-​American vot­ers in North Car­olina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-​leaning Pub­lic Pol­icy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Rom­ney would get 20 per­cent of the African-​American vote if the elec­tion were held today,

Now one could look at this in sev­eral ways:

1. The Black Com­mu­nity, thanks to the elec­tion of Pres­i­dent Obama “break­ing the dam” have now gone beyond “Race” as the only fac­tor for pick­ing a pres­i­dent and it’s about time too. (If polls showed only 20% of whites will­ing to vote for a non-​white can­di­date it would be a con­sid­ered a sign of racism).

2. The econ­omy is so bad that the Black Com­mu­nity is will­ing to make an excep­tion in this case (think of Nor­way & Quis­ling on a much less seri­ous scale).

3. Gay Mar­riage has changed the equa­tion. Mag­gie Gal­lagher at NRO looks at the num­bers and says:

One in five black vot­ers in North Car­olina actu­ally say they will vote for Rom­ney. The econ­omy? Maybe, but few Repub­li­cans have ever won that share of the black vote even when times were tough. A lot of black pas­tors are pretty upset with Pres­i­dent Obama for endors­ing gay mar­riage (see the Coali­tion for African-​American Pas­tors new peti­tion), and it looks like some of their flocks are as well.

I think every­body is miss­ing the real block­buster nature of these numbers.

I have long thought that there is an under­cur­rent of dis­con­tent in the black com­mu­nity with the per­for­mance of this admin­is­tra­tion. I felt the Gay Mar­riage deci­sion was a water­shed because it pro­vided an excuse for those who wanted to stay home:

imag­ine you are a Black voter dis­gusted with the president’s record but get­ting pres­sure over racial sol­i­dar­ity. The Gay Mar­riage sud­denly makes stay­ing home a mat­ter of stick­ing with your Pas­tor and your God.

I expected such a thing to take place qui­etly within the black com­mu­nity and not break into the gen­eral con­ver­sa­tion. This is far more than that. One out of five Black Amer­i­cans in a state where the pres­i­dent won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explic­itly told strangers they will not sup­port the first black pres­i­dent for re-​election and they have expressed that deci­sion in a pub­lic poll..

It is that pub­lic nature that makes all the dif­fer­ence because it rein­forces what other Black Amer­i­cans may be think­ing in other states but are hes­i­tant to say aloud.

It is a par­a­digm shift and if it repeats itself beyond North Car­olina then this elec­tion over.

Exit ques­tion: What do Democ­rats on the bal­lot in 2012 seek­ing state and fed­eral level do when asked if they sup­port Barack Obama?

Update: And it’s not just Black Americans

I’ve resisted polling show­ing Jew­ish sup­port for Obama slip­ping as con­trary to my life expe­ri­ences, but it is so bad on so many fronts that even the Jews seem to be com­ing around to reality

Barack Obama has done what no repub­li­can has been able to do, break the hold of the demo­c­ra­tic party on groups. Michael Gra­ham said it in 2010, “The great­est maker of Repub­li­can vot­ers since Ronald Rea­gan is Barack Obama”

The Lord cer­tainly works in mys­te­ri­ous ways.

Update 2: Insta­lanche thanks Glenn, but I still think there is noth­ing wrong with cocky, as long as it doesn’t mean lazy.

Vodka Pun­dit at PJ Media also linksbut I think he slightly mis­un­der­stands me. Granted I think Gay Mar­riage is a big issue faith­ful black Chris­tians have bro­ken with the admin­is­tra­tion over it. but I sus­pect if the Black Com­mu­nity was doing bet­ter in this econ­omy a lot of peo­ple might have ratio­nal­ized it away.

What I think Gay Mar­riage issue did was allow the Black Com­mu­nity to express feel­ings they already had with­out being marked as “Race trai­tors” or “Uncle Toms”. It is that cover more than the issue itself which makes all the difference.

Update 3: Doug Mat­a­coins dis­agrees with my con­clu­sions in these two posts.

Check out his argu­ment, I sure hope the Democ­rats buy it.

My suspicions from August have now been confirmed, in a big way

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today,

Now one could look at this in several ways:

1. The Black Community, thanks to the election of President Obama “breaking the dam” have now gone beyond “Race” as the only factor for picking a president and it’s about time too. (If polls showed only 20% of whites willing to vote for a non-white candidate it would be a considered a sign of racism).

2. The economy is so bad that the Black Community is willing to make an exception in this case (think of Norway & Quisling on a much less serious scale).

3. Gay Marriage has changed the equation. Maggie Gallagher at NRO looks at the numbers and says:

One in five black voters in North Carolina actually say they will vote for Romney. The economy? Maybe, but few Republicans have ever won that share of the black vote even when times were tough. A lot of black pastors are pretty upset with President Obama for endorsing gay marriage (see the Coalition for African-American Pastors new petition), and it looks like some of their flocks are as well.

I think everybody is missing the real blockbuster nature of these numbers.

I have long thought that there is an undercurrent of discontent in the black community with the performance of this administration. I felt the Gay Marriage decision was a watershed because it provided an excuse for those who wanted to stay home:

imagine you are a Black voter disgusted with the president’s record but getting pressure over racial solidarity. The Gay Marriage suddenly makes staying home a matter of sticking with your Pastor and your God.

I expected such a thing to take place quietly within the black community and not break into the general conversation. This is far more than that. One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll..

It is that public nature that makes all the difference because it reinforces what other Black Americans may be thinking in other states but are hesitant to say aloud.

It is a paradigm shift and if it repeats itself beyond North Carolina then this election over.

Exit question: What do Democrats on the ballot in 2012 seeking state and federal level do when asked if they support Barack Obama?

Update: And it’s not just Black Americans

I’ve resisted polling showing Jewish support for Obama slipping as contrary to my life experiences, but it is so bad on so many fronts that even the Jews seem to be coming around to reality

Barack Obama has done what no republican has been able to do, break the hold of the democratic party on groups. Michael Graham said it in 2010, “The greatest maker of Republican voters since Ronald Reagan is Barack Obama”

The Lord certainly works in mysterious ways.

Update 2: Instalanche thanks Glenn, but I still think there is nothing wrong with cocky, as long as it doesn’t mean lazy.

Vodka Pundit at PJ Media also links but I think he slightly misunderstands me. Granted I think Gay Marriage is a big issue faithful black Christians have broken with the administration over it. but I suspect if the Black Community was doing better in this economy a lot of people might have rationalized it away.

What I think Gay Marriage issue did was allow the Black Community to express feelings they already had without being marked as “Race traitors” or “Uncle Toms”. It is that cover more than the issue itself which makes all the difference.

Update 3: Doug Matacoins disagrees with my conclusions in these two posts.

Check out his argument, I sure hope the Democrats buy it.