The Obamacare Quagmire for Nikki Tsongas

Yes­ter­day I com­mented on Nikki Tsongas’ sup­port for Oba­macare and how it might be a prob­lem in Fitch­burg. I’ve been tak­ing a closer look at the fig­ures and frankly this could be a big­ger prob­lem than any­one real­izes the Congresswoman.

Con­sider: In Jan­u­ary 2010 the spe­cial elec­tion was in effect a ref­er­en­dum on Oba­macare. Scott Brown cam­paigned against it and vowed to be the 41^st vote to block it.

Brown won that race (the first Sen­ate vic­tory for a mem­ber of the GOP since the 1972 Nixon Land­slide) by five points statewide. The totals were as follows:

Brown 51.8% 1,168,178
Coak­ley 47.1% 1,060,861
Kennedy 1% 22,388

Ok that’s actu­ally 4.7% unrounded, not much of a margin.

But in the cities and town that now con­sti­tute the Mass­a­chu­setts 3^rd dis­trict the mar­gin was more impressive:

Brown 57% 129521
Coak­ley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

That’s a 15 point dif­fer­ence in an elec­tion that Brown won by less than 5 points over­all. And if you look at the top ten cities in the dis­trict based on votes cast in 2010 it gets worse for the left…

Brown 58% 76097
Coak­ley 41% 54018
Kennedy 1% 1284

Larger cities are usu­ally Demo­c­rat strong­holds. In the state over­all Coak­ley won 9 out of the 10 largest cities. Unfor­tu­nately for the left none of those cities are in this dis­trict. In this dis­trict only Lawrence went against Brown (by a 2 – 1 mar­gin). Brown won the other 9 largest cities in the dis­trict and actu­ally did a point bet­ter than the dis­trict overall.

In short in an elec­tion all about Oba­macare Scott Brown dom­i­nated the vote in what is now the Mass­a­chu­setts 3^rd Dis­trict and that same Scott Brown is going to be on the bal­lot this fall.

“But DaT­e­chGuy” you argue, “Nikki Tsongas has won re-​election right along with­out trou­ble and this time Pres­i­dent Obama will be on the ticket too!”

I’m glad you brought that up. Let’s con­sider four impor­tant points:

1. Thanks but no Thanks Mr. Pres­i­dent: Let’s remem­ber that Pres­i­dent Obama made it a point to cam­paign with Martha Coak­ley in Boston just before the elec­tion and it didn’t help her win a seat that the Democ­rats won since 1978. There is a rea­son why Ohio union lead­ers kept Obama out of the state dur­ing their spe­cial elec­tion.

2. A Done Deal: In fall 2010 Oba­macare was already passed. A vote for Nikki Tsongas would have no bear­ing on if Oba­macare remained the law of the land or no. In 2012 that isn’t going to be the case.

3. The Obama “Recov­ery”: Let me quote a post you might have read a few days ago.

What the pub­lic IS pay­ing atten­tion to every day is their own lives. Unfor­tu­nately for Mr. Hope and change and his re-​election team, the worst econ­omy since before World War 2 has been the daily real­ity of those lives since he has been elected.

You can spin this, you can ratio­nal­ize this, you can give excuses for this, but you can’t pre­tend this isn’t true.

And remem­ber there is absolutely no day­light between Nikki Tsongas and Barack Obama.

4. My name is Weaver/​Golnik & I’m with Scott Brown:

Just as there is no day­light between Nikki Tsongas and Barack Obama there is no day­light between either Jon Gol­nik or Tom Weaver and Scott Brown on Oba­macare. The ads just write them­selves. Do you want to be with Scott Brown & Tom Weaver/​Jon Gol­nik or Barack Obama & Nikki Tsongas?

MA-​3 may not be on a lot of people’s maps right now, but after look­ing at these fig­ures, paybe the GOP might decide to pump in even more than the 2.2 mil into TV ads around here.

Be afraid Democ­rats, be VERY afraid!

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