I predict Tim Pawlenty will be Mitt Romney’s VP pick

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I predict Tim Pawlenty will be Mitt Romney's VP pick

I don’t usu­ally do this but I pre­dict Gov Mitt Rom­ney will select Gov Tim Paw­lenty as his VP on the GOP ticket.

Here is why it will not be Paul Ryan

The only chance Obama has is a base elec­tion. He needs to depress an ener­gized GOP base and ener­gize the Demo­c­rat base, Paul Ryan would do so, thus he is off the table.

This is also why you won’t see an Allen West, or a Bach­mann, or a Palin or etc etc etc. Any strong con­ser­v­a­tive that the base likes and the left hates will not be the pick.

(BTW: In the long-​term Ryan is more valu­able in the con­gress sell­ing a Rom­ney budget/​tax plan)

Here is why it will not be Chris Christie:

Christie has served only two yeas as gov­er­nor. This brings the same expe­ri­ence issue as Obama. While he has per­formed well, it takes away an easy attack on Obama. Plus while Christie’s plain talk is appeal­ing it would also ener­gize the left, although not as much as the other choices above, and his clashes with the NRA and the right could be problematic.

Here is why it will not be Rob Portman:

Portman’s con­nec­tion with the Bush admin­is­tra­tion gives the pres­i­dent the abil­ity to link Rom­ney to pres­i­dent Bush addi­tion­ally his polit­i­cal oper­a­tion will be more effec­tive to turn out the vote if he is still in the Gov Man­sion
where he will have the levers of power to use as a tool of persuasion.

Also Ohio is not going to be as close as some think.

Here is why it will NOT be Bobby Jindel

On first glance Jin­del might seem the obvi­ous choice, an excel­lent com­bi­na­tion of a guy the right likes who doesn’t ener­gize the left. He is also incred­i­bly competent.

But what he brings to the table doesn’t change that Jin­dal didn’t endorse Rom­ney till April after San­to­rum pulled out of the race. If he had endorsed him before the March Pri­mary it might have been dif­fer­ent but that is the type of thing that the Rom­ney Cam­paign, which val­ues loy­alty, won’t forget.

Addi­tion­ally the south and Louisiana is not in ques­tion for Rom­ney, I don’t think Jin­dal brings a lot of extra votes (unless there is a large block of Indian-​Americans in key swing states that I’m not aware of would would be excited by the first Indian Amer­i­can in the white house.)

Here is why it will NOT be Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte at first glance would be a per­fect pick for many rea­sons: An early endorser of Mitt Rom­ney, from a small swing state, Endorsed by Sarah Palin so liked by the right, and as any­one who has talked to her can tell you, a smart dynamic woman who has a huge future ahead of her in the party. So why would she not be picked? A few reasons.

1. Her expe­ri­ence is not exec­u­tive experience.

2. She has served in the Sen­ate around the same amount of time that Barack Obama did before he ran.

3. She comes from the same region as Rom­ney (NH vs Mass)

4. The MSM will “Palin­ize” her in an attempt to destroy her.

This last point is rather sad and will not affect her in NH in terms of re-​election but she has a very strong future before her. Once that first term is done it will be much harder to hit her in this fash­ion. I think if she has ambi­tions for higher office I think fin­ish­ing that first term would be the best long-​term move for her.

BTW for all the rea­sons above except for #3 It will not be Rubio

BTW Keep an eye on Kelly Ayotte, if she is not on the ticket this time (and there is an out­side chance she will be) you can bet your bot­tom dol­lar she will be in my life­time. This woman has a spec­tac­u­lar future ahead of her.

And here is why it WILL be Tim Paw­lenty

Tim Paw­lenty has been a gov­er­nor he has the exec­u­tive expe­ri­ence that sup­ple­ments Romney

He comes from Min­nesota and can draw votes from the region.

When he pulled out he endorsed Rom­ney early and has been a loyal, effec­tive sur­ro­gate for him.

He does not ener­gize the left to any degree.

and here is the clincher.

Mitt Rom­ney has plenty of oppo­si­tion research on Tim Paw­lenty from his own cam­paign. Rom­ney knows Paw­lenty and knows what the left has on him because he had it first.

For all of these rea­sons: I pre­dict Mitt Rom­ney will be select­ing Tim Paw­lenty as his VP pick.

— — — — — — — –

The DaT­e­chGuy fundraiser con­tin­ues. Mitt Rom­ney had a record fundrais­ing month I’m just $100 mil­lion or so behind him but if I can man­age to get to that $7500 level I can pick up that used 15-​year-​old Mer­cury and have wheels again.

For details click here for the progress check the ther­mome­ter to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.




And this is the clin

I don’t usually do this but I predict Gov Mitt Romney will select Gov Tim Pawlenty as his VP on the GOP ticket.

Here is why it will not be Paul Ryan

The only chance Obama has is a base election. He needs to depress an energized GOP base and energize the Democrat base, Paul Ryan would do so, thus he is off the table.

This is also why you won’t see an Allen West, or a Bachmann, or a Palin or etc etc etc. Any strong conservative that the base likes and the left hates will not be the pick.

(BTW: In the long-term Ryan is more valuable in the congress selling a Romney budget/tax plan)

Here is why it will not be Chris Christie:

Christie has served only two yeas as governor. This brings the same experience issue as Obama. While he has performed well, it takes away an easy attack on Obama. Plus while Christie’s plain talk is appealing it would also energize the left, although not as much as the other choices above, and his clashes with the NRA and the right could be problematic.

Here is why it will not be Rob Portman:

Portman’s connection with the Bush administration gives the president the ability to link Romney to president Bush additionally his political operation will be more effective to turn out the vote if he is still in the Gov Mansion
where he will have the levers of power to use as a tool of persuasion.

Also Ohio is not going to be as close as some think.

Here is why it will NOT be Bobby Jindel

On first glance Jindel might seem the obvious choice, an excellent combination of a guy the right likes who doesn’t energize the left. He is also incredibly competent.

But what he brings to the table doesn’t change that Jindal didn’t endorse Romney till April after Santorum pulled out of the race. If he had endorsed him before the March Primary it might have been different but that is the type of thing that the Romney Campaign, which values loyalty, won’t forget.

Additionally the south and Louisiana is not in question for Romney, I don’t think Jindal brings a lot of extra votes (unless there is a large block of Indian-Americans in key swing states that I’m not aware of would would be excited by the first Indian American in the white house.)

Here is why it will NOT be Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte at first glance would be a perfect pick for many reasons: An early endorser of Mitt Romney, from a small swing state, Endorsed by Sarah Palin so liked by the right, and as anyone who has talked to her can tell you, a smart dynamic woman who has a huge future ahead of her in the party. So why would she not be picked? A few reasons.

1. Her experience is not executive experience.

2. She has served in the Senate around the same amount of time that Barack Obama did before he ran.

3. She comes from the same region as Romney (NH vs Mass)

4. The MSM will “Palinize” her in an attempt to destroy her.

This last point is rather sad and will not affect her in NH in terms of re-election but she has a very strong future before her. Once that first term is done it will be much harder to hit her in this fashion. I think if she has ambitions for higher office I think finishing that first term would be the best long-term move for her.

BTW for all the reasons above except for #3 It will not be Rubio

BTW Keep an eye on Kelly Ayotte, if she is not on the ticket this time (and there is an outside chance she will be) you can bet your bottom dollar she will be in my lifetime. This woman has a spectacular future ahead of her.

And here is why it WILL be Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty has been a governor he has the executive experience that supplements Romney

He comes from Minnesota and can draw votes from the region.

When he pulled out he endorsed Romney early and has been a loyal, effective surrogate for him.

He does not energize the left to any degree.

and here is the clincher.

Mitt Romney has plenty of opposition research on Tim Pawlenty from his own campaign. Romney knows Pawlenty and knows what the left has on him because he had it first.

For all of these reasons: I predict Mitt Romney will be selecting Tim Pawlenty as his VP pick.

———————–

The DaTechGuy fundraiser continues. Mitt Romney had a record fundraising month I’m just $100 million or so behind him but if I can manage to get to that $7500 level I can pick up that used 15-year-old Mercury and have wheels again.

For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.




And this is the clin