Be Vewy Vewy Quiet. I’m hunting Crosstabs

by Datechguy | August 8th, 2012

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Be Vewy Vewy Quiet. I'm hunting Crosstabs

This Morn­ing on Morn­ing Joe they are quot­ing NYT/​CBS polls con­cern­ing swing states. The claim is that Rom­ney is trail­ing in Wis­con­sin & Va but ahead in Colorado.

Hear­ing the report I went straight to the story at the times and looked for the crosstabs.

They weren’t there.

Then I went to the “how the polls were con­ducted” page. They had a link to NY Times polls and clicked there next.

There are a lot of charts and a lot of fancy graph­ics, and even a video or two. It sure looks pretty.

What isn’t there is the following

The Demo­c­rat vs GOP split on the polls

The Split of how the vot­ers polled voted in 2008

or if it’s there it’s hid­ing REALLY good.

We’ve already seen polls skewed far­ther and far­ther in order to show the pres­i­dent keep­ing pace with Mitt Rom­ney, now appar­ently we’ve reached the point where we either are not going to put up the cross tabs (at worst) or at best will wait until after the morn­ing shows so the nar­ra­tive is estab­lished before cross tabs are there.

If your goal is to advance the president’s cam­paign, this is a smart move, but if you as a “news” orga­ni­za­tion have a goal of inform­ing the pub­lic then it’s BS.

Dick Mor­ris (who I usu­ally don’t have a lot of time for) put it well:

The media is try­ing to cre­ate a sense of momen­tum and inevitabil­ity about the Obama can­di­dacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even spec­u­lated about a pos­si­ble Demo­c­ra­tic landslide.

On Fri­day, I saw the real num­bers. These state-​by-​state polls, taken by an orga­ni­za­tion I trust (after 40 years of polling), show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely-​voter inter­views in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is dis­tinctly pro-​Romney.

In 2010 it wasn’t until the fail­ure of the John Stew­art Rally the week­end before the elec­tion that the media decided to report on what was actu­ally going on.

It’s been my opin­ion they will be forced to do oth­er­wise before that, but if we’ve reached the point where they are hid­ing or delay­ing cross tabs on Aug 8th God knows what they will be doing in October.

Bot­tom line, they assume you are idiots.

Update: A new page but still no over­all break­downs. I won­der why?
— — — — — — — — — — -

DaT­e­chGuy Fundraiser is still in progress, it’s been flat the last few days. I should be get­ting a quote on that car this week (if it’s lower than I expect I’ll lower my goal accord­ingly) If you think this blog and cov­er­age is worth your time and money I’d appre­ci­ate your support.

For details click here for the progress check the ther­mome­ter to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.




This Morning on Morning Joe they are quoting NYT/CBS polls concerning swing states. The claim is that Romney is trailing in Wisconsin & Va but ahead in Colorado.

Hearing the report I went straight to the story at the times and looked for the crosstabs.

They weren’t there.

Then I went to the “how the polls were conducted” page. They had a link to NY Times polls and clicked there next.

There are a lot of charts and a lot of fancy graphics, and even a video or two. It sure looks pretty.

What isn’t there is the following

The Democrat vs GOP split on the polls

The Split of how the voters polled voted in 2008

or if it’s there it’s hiding REALLY good.

We’ve already seen polls skewed farther and farther in order to show the president keeping pace with Mitt Romney, now apparently we’ve reached the point where we either are not going to put up the cross tabs (at worst) or at best will wait until after the morning shows so the narrative is established before cross tabs are there.

If your goal is to advance the president’s campaign, this is a smart move, but if you as a “news” organization have a goal of informing the public then it’s BS.

Dick Morris (who I usually don’t have a lot of time for) put it well:

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after 40 years of polling), show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely-voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney.

In 2010 it wasn’t until the failure of the John Stewart Rally the weekend before the election that the media decided to report on what was actually going on.

It’s been my opinion they will be forced to do otherwise before that, but if we’ve reached the point where they are hiding or delaying cross tabs on Aug 8th God knows what they will be doing in October.

Bottom line, they assume you are idiots.

Update: A new page but still no overall breakdowns. I wonder why?
——————————-

DaTechGuy Fundraiser is still in progress, it’s been flat the last few days. I should be getting a quote on that car this week (if it’s lower than I expect I’ll lower my goal accordingly) If you think this blog and coverage is worth your time and money I’d appreciate your support.

For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.




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