The 4th Doctor: A Lost mine, A phoney map are people still falling for that old guff I mean are they?
Dr. Who The Ribos Operation Episode 2 1978
Last night just before 8 p.m. EST yet another CNN poll came out showing yet another Obama lead (7 pts this time) and yet another batch of hand wringing ensued on twitter..
You know I really hate to be a broken record but Really, we are still falling for this trick, REALLY?
It took under 15 minutes of looking at the internals of this poll to see the problem with this Obama 52 Romney 45 poll….
I Double checked the PDF and yup no break down provided, it’s simply amazing:
Apparently they are because people see these number and start to panic.
Well I took the liberty of re-reading the poll and while they don’t provide the splits they do have an interesting subsection where only Republicans and Republican leaners are asked that tells a story…
BASED ON 419 REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN– SAMPLING
ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
Why is this important? here is the first line of the poll
Interviews with 1,010 adult Americans conducted by telephoneby ORC International on August 7-8, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 911 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentagepoints).
The sample includes 760 interviews among landline respondents and 250 interviews among cell phone respondents
I know math is not a strong suit in the US any more, but lets do some math.
OK here we go. You have a 17 point difference between GOP & GOP leaners and those who do not. 17 pts! Are they serious? “But DaTechGuy…” You say, “…what about the TRUE independents you are lumping them with the learners?”
Well there is a clue that can tell us the reality. We’ve already established that the GOP/leaners are 41.4% of the poll, so how does that compare to how Romney is polling?
So we have a poll where Romney is OVER-PERFORMING among his people growing his pie. THAT is the one indisputable fact that we can see from this poll.
Why is this important, I’ll explain it again: You don’t hide the figures if they favor you. If the breakdowns favored Obama they would be out there and arguing them, we would be seeing people talk about how great the president is doing among both his own side and drawing independents toward him. Instead you have to dig and do long division to establish the one fact that we can be sure of in this poll: Mitt Romney is performing beyond his base.
Don’t let yourself be played for suckers.
Update: Ah HA DaTechGuy, maybe CNN shows a seven point lead but FOX shows a NINE point lead. And they provide splits. That’s right they do, lets look at those splits:
So in a poll where there is a 9 point split between Democrats & Republicans Surprise Democrats lead by 9.
Romney draws 40% according to this poll in a 35% GOP sample, that means he is outperforming his base by over 14% Obama draws 49% on a base of 44% that’s 11% over base not a bad job, the best I’ve seen for him.
I might be encouraged if I was an Obama guy if it wasn’t for two critical facts.
1…For the last month Obama has been outspending Romney HUGE and all that spending hasn’t depressed Romney among his base.
2. In a poll where the number of Democrats polled outnumber Republicans by over 25% Obama STILL can’t get to 50%
If Obama can’t get to 50% with a 9 point spread after spending a fortune what makes you think he will in November?
Update 2: The only discouraging thing I’ve seen from this poll is this post at The Other McCain:
Is anyone else troubled by the evidence that this lie-a-minute strategy by the Obama campaign is working? The CNN poll shows Obama leading by 7 points and the Fox News poll shows him ahead by 9 points, and I’m at a loss to think of anything in the past couple of weeks that could have moved the polls this way except that Democrats are telling a bunch of shameless lies.
No Stacy, I’m troubled that you are actually falling for this garbage, of all people you should have more sense than that.
Update 3: Allahpundit is worried and makes one fair point:
Those people are already wary of reelecting him (that’s why they’re undecided), so they’re essentially Romney persuadables. Romney needs to persuade them, but all Obama needs to do is keep Romney on the defensive and keep the campaign dumb and nasty so that those persuadables stop caring and stay home. It’s incredibly cynical but it’s his best bet. If you believe these two polls, it’s working okay so far.
Yes Obama needs to suppress the Romney vote but he has not only nearly shot his entire wad in terms of cash but he the charges have been so outlandish that even the MSM is calling him on it.
When the people with actual skin in the game start acting like Obama is re-electable then I’ll start to worry, not before.
Update 4: Mike Flynn at Breitbart gets it
Okay, I’m not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it’s going to be a very long campaign.
Thank God SOMEBODY else is saying it.
Update 5: The Lonely Conservative gets it too
The DaTechGuy fundraiser continues.
For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.
Update: Yes I hope you support this blog with your dollars, but here is a blogger that needs help more.