Today at Concord Carlisle HS Jon Golnik and Nikki Tsongas had the first of four debates on a cold rainy day while the NE Patriots were destroying the Buffalo Bills:

I arrived in the rain

People signed in up front with an area for press I was one of only three people were listed.

There was not a big crowd to start

With the combo of a football game and a rainy sunday a large crowd was unlikely. I stated interviewing people

The debate was only scheduled for an hour, after opening statements from Niki Tsongas

and Jon Golnik

The debate started with an odd format, the moderator posed a general subject with several questions and the candidates picked and choose and then answered

I found it weird way of doing this, it made for less direct contrast

Basically allowing each candidate to go where they wanted

regardless of what the other said

When the final question of that segment was completed

Questions from the audience were asked

They were selected by the moderators

I thought this was also a bad choice

It left the decision of what was acceptable to the people running the debate

I found this was to the advantage of the incumbent both in the choice of questions and the format

When the questions were done closing statements were given, both my Rep Tsongas

And Mr. Golnik

and I spoke to both of them after the debate, only briefly to Rep Tsongas

and slightly longer for Mr. Golnik

While not agreeing with the political sentiment of Mary Ann

I do think Rep Tsongas came out ahead, the format helped her a bit, the one question where Mr. Golnik was delayed due to notes looked poor, he landed a few shots but not effectively enough as a person who is behind in a district that favors the left. Of course there are three more debates and this one was lightly covered so there is plenty of time to change the path. Meanwhile both sides held signs outside

and awaited the next clash, you can see the full gallery below the jump
Continue reading “Jon Golnik & Niki Tsongas Debate #1 Concord Carlisle HS”

I’m sure at least half of the country disagrees with my take on politics but EVERYBODY likes a good meal, so when I was done with covering Chris Christie and Ovide Lamontagne in NH I headed to the Atkinson House of pizza a few paces away for a grinder and picked up a couple of pizza’s to go.

While Gov Christie and the rally was a story I found there was another story right here, the story of a roast beef roasted on the premises:

Mmmm freshly roasted beef

and people running a family business

and a woman who doesn’t look anything like she could be making pizza for 31 years who talked to me

Not only was the food good but the place has xfinity wi-fi and a relaxing place to eat. Perfect for a guy who has videos to upload like me.

She stressed that competition was good because it makes you work harder.

Now 90 minutes after these pizza’s came out of the oven I was at game night with the guys and they tried the pizza, remember that they are tasting this 90 minutes after it comes out of the oven:

If this is the reaction 90 minutes after it comes out of the oven can you imagine what it will be when you pick it up and eat it there fresh?

If you want to find out for yourself, just head on down here is the map.

View Larger Map

Later Today Jon Golnik will be holding his first debate against Nikki Tsongas in the 3rd Mass Race but yesterday he was at the Scott Brown event and spoke to me about the election:

If you want to help send a member of the GOP to congress in Massachusetts in my district click here.

Good Afternoon:

As you may or depending on the state of the public schools where you live, may not know the first Europeans to permanently settle in what is now called the United States were people fleeing religious persecution, people whose ways of worshiping God were different from those around them and suffered for it.

When they came to America the various churches massed in various colonies and based upon their own level of tolerance for other religions, enacted laws restricting the practice of other religions until finally with the adoption of the Bill of Rights in the New constitution (1787) the principle of freedom of religion was firmly established as a national policy.

We’ve had a few bumps as Catholics in Pennsylvania and Joseph Smith could tell you but by and large we’ve done an excellent job allowing people of any and all religions to practice as they please.

Islam has been around for quite a while, as a Roman Catholic I see several things good about it, particularly its devotion to regular prayer which is the basis of any devotion to God.

As an American: I freely welcome you to practice Islam in America. Worship God as you see fit.

As an American: I freely welcome you to make public your practice, hold festivals, have parades, share cultural events, let your culture be part of ours as so many other cultures have before you.

As an American: I freely welcome you to use all the freedoms promised to protect religious belief under the laws of the United States and of the individual states to make sure your right to worship is respected.

As an American: I freely welcome you to make your best case for Islam, explain your religion, proselytize, I invite you to make the finest argument you can that Islam is the best way to get closest to God and to live a better life that you can, both in public and in private.

As an American: I freely welcome you to make the case against my religion, any other religion or no religion at all. If you say Islam is truth explain why other religions are false or have it wrong in print, in media and on the net.

As an American: I freely welcome you to attempt to convert people even a Catholic like me. Convert the entire United States if you can


As an American and as a Catholic in America In return I Demand the following:

As an American: I say you MUST NOT prevent others from Worshiping God as they see fit

As an American: I say you MUST NOT restrict the public practice of other religions, festivals or any other celebration or expression of any other religion.

As an American: I say you MUST NOT violate the laws of the United States nor the individual States where you live in the practice of your religion.

As an American: I say you MUST NOT prevent others from making the best case they can, in public or in private, for their religions or religious denominations, nor prevent others from making their case to follow no religion at all.

As an American: I say you MUST NOT prevent others from making the case against Islam, for explaining the flaws in your belief and declaring that you have it wrong in print, in media or on the net.

As an American: I say you MUST NOT prevent others from converting followers of Islam nor must you harm those who do. Islam must be able to stand on its own two feet

You will note that I do not request these things, I do not entreat of you these things as a courtesy, I do not say you SHOULD NOT do these things. I say you MUST NOT do these things.

This is part of the American compact, America is not just a place where free commerce can get you anywhere economically, it’s a place where everyone competes in the battlefield of ideas and competes freely.

If you do otherwise:

If you choose to practice and excuse things such as Honor Killing

If you attempt to pass laws to restrict critique of Islam.

If you attempt to silence the voices that would argue against you by physical action or vandalism

If you commit violence against those who would preach another creed even in towns where you are the majority,

If you attempt to slay those who would choose to leave Islam.

If actively and material support those who would overthrow this nation and it’s laws or target America & Americans for slaughter.

Then I say you have broken the compact of America, and I will fight you in word or deed to my dying breath.

The choice is entirely yours.

My own Church the Catholic church predates your religion by hundreds of years. In nearly two dozen centuries it has had ups and downs. It has had success and scandal and it has been loved or as we see lately in America despised, attacked and ridiculed by those in power and media.

This doesn’t worry me. The message of Christ and the Church is a true message, it has faced obstacles for centuries and still endures and flourish. It will continue to do so.

I submit that if you truly believe Islam is worth the paper it’s printed on or the Arabic script it’s written in, then it can stand on its own in the marketplace of ideas regardless of it is despised, attacked or ridiculed by those in power or those in media without the need of violence, threat or intimidation to back it up and if it can not, if you can not allow it do to so, that tells me you have neither faith in the truth of your own religion nor in “Allah” himself?

We can either be friendly rivals both honestly arguing for he best for ourselves, our families, our neighbors and our country, or we can be enemies.

Your call.

I was able to Briefly speak to Senator Brown after an event at the Leominser Elks Club before the Johnny Appleseed festival in Leominster:

One of the things you simply have to love about Scott Brown is he’s so NORMAL. Consider the end of his answer to my question on his appeal:

“Last time I got votes from the Democratic party the independent party the republican party and quite frankly people who just like to party”

Can you imagine, Elizabeth Warren saying this? Can you imagine her even thinking this. She would be Dean Wormer making deals with the Mafia guy. Even worse she would be Neidermeyer.

The left is going to spend a lot of money in the Massachusetts Senate Race, they are going to say a lot of stuff and they are going to be very desperate in the end (Mika from Morning Joe not withstanding) but they simply can’t beat Scott Brown with a candidate like Elizabeth Warren.

And that’s not even touching on the Law License business

Update: I guess Sen Brown has this guys’ vote tied down:

For those too humorless to get it, listen to Senator Brown’s answers, he takes his job seriously as he should but he also doesn’t take himself seriously which he shouldn’t, that is the ticket to detachment not only from reality but from the people you represent.

It’s the 100th DaTechGuy on DaRadio show on WCRM and YOU are invited.

On Oct 20th DaTechGuy on DaRadio will come to you LIVE from the very delicious Lago Ristorante on Mill Street in Leominster where we will not only give you two hours of the best Conservative Talk radio in Massachusetts but Chef Joseph will be providing a brunch for our guests and fans celebrating nearly two full years of the man in the Fedora.

(Sorry guys no open bar that you’ll have to pay for drinks)

Seating is limited so reserve your spot today via this link at Everbrite and thanks again for being part of the success of DaTechguy on DaRadio. Here is to another 100 shows and beyond.

At 10 a.m. join me for DaTechGuy on DaRadio as we slowly but surely move closer to our 100th show.

I’ll talk a little NH and play a few clips from my coverage of Ovide Lamontagne and Chris Christie in NH, we’ll also talk more polls and the declaration of “poll deniers” by the left and in the second hour I’m going to read and talk about the best single argument I’ve heard yet against the assisted suicide law ballot question

And we have an announcement concerning our 100th show as well

Join us on WCRN AM 830 Worcester Mass and don’t forget if you are somehow outside our 50,000 Watt Range you have a lot of streaming options.

You can listen live using the three different links for the WCRN live stream
If you are using Windows media player click here
If you are using Winamp clip here
If you are using real player click here

If you are using something else, then go to Tune-in.

And of course WCRN has a full conservative morning lineup on Saturday starting with your Wake-Up call at 5 a.m., Conservatively Speaking at 7 and Carol Ann Browne at 9 ending with me DaTechGuy on DaRadio, you can listen to ALL of them with the same streaming options.

And yes you can be part of the conversation call 508-438-0965 or toll-free during MY show at 10 a.m. at 888-9-fedora that’s 888-933=3672

Hope to hear you there

(oh and remember we will be broadcasting LIVE from the American Products Store in Cherry Valley next week!)

Today’s subscription commentary for Subscribers and Tip Jar hitters talks about Hall of Fame Pitcher Rube Waddell and how the same tactics opposing players used to defeat him are being used by the left and the media today.

The full commentary is available to subscribers and hitters of DaTipJar is here, if you would like to see it hit DaTipJar below

and I’ll send you the code as soon as I see the confirmation e-mail. If you don’t want to worry about ever missing a single video choose any subscription level

and I will e-mail you the codes every week as soon as the videos are uploaded and the posts are ready.

Well NBC has a new poll out and Morning Joe is simply salivating:

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)

I hate to put a damper on our friends on the left, even those who consider us “Poll deniers” or “Poll truthers” but as a resident of Realville I look at reality and here is what I see in this NBC/Marist poll, lets start with New Hampshire:

That’s a 46-40 split in a state where just two years ago Kelly Ayotte won a senate seat by 23 points.

And supposedly this is the case even though this very same poll show the right track wrong track numbers thus:

Because when people think the country is going in the wrong direction by 7 pts 51-44 their reaction is ALWAYS “stay the course”.

Last NH thought, before you start screaming how Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 lets take a look at what happened in 2010:

Yeah that’s a state where the 2008 paradigm is in play

Now lets try North Carolina that supposedly has a +2 Obama figure:

Here is the right track/wrong track

Yeah 41-54 right track wrong track SURE these guys are winning, here is the partisan split:

48-42 plus 6 Dem sample in North Carolina, now lets look at what happened in NC in 2010

Yeah that is another state that is going all 2008 in November:

Now lets look at Nevada, again lets start with Right Track / Wrong Track:

14 points, Obama is up 2 with a right track/wrong track deficit of 14 points.

Lets look at the partisan split:

47-42 plus 5 dem. now lets see what Nevada did in 2010

The GOP picked up two seats in 2010 enough and the Governor’s mansion enough to sustain any veto during the election where Harry Reid managed a massive turnout to save his seat. Interestingly enough while 52% of the vote was cast by the GOP the Democrats kept a majority.

But hey the still held the legislature in a GOP wave election, does that mean Obama is actually going to do well in the statewide vote. I’m glad you asked. Interestingly there was another election in Nevada on September 13th 2011. An election for the Nevada 2nd district surely this would show the power of Barack Obama…

…or not.

But this STILL doesn’t mean that these polls are off after all we have a record of polling accurate polling in Nevada right? PPP did a poll just the day before the election and it showed Amodei winning:

Ok Sure we showed a 13 point margin when the election had a 22 pt spread but we had the winner right and THAT means our polling is accurate!


This is what we in Realville call “Math” if Eugene Robinson wants to call it a conspiracy theory and Morning Joe wants to make fun of it, bless their hearts as they say down south.

The data is the data and all the pretending otherwise from people who didn’t see 2010 coming and insisted the GOP were fools to support Pat Toomey or Marco Rubio doesn’t change it.

Update: Yup the focus on registration in samples is a conspiracy theory, it’s so ridiculous so foolish and so delusional that Gallup finds it necessary to reassure folks:

The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I’ve been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.

There are several reasons why this is a faulty approach to evaluating a poll’s results.

He makes his case and I encourage you all to read it and make up your own minds, but there was one bit that jumped out at me that really gives away the game:

Now if a given poll in Ohio in this election shows Obama with a 10-percentage-point lead, one should just ask, “How likely is it that Obama would be ahead by 10 points if he won by five points in 2008?” — forgetting party identification, which we assume is going to be higher for the Democratic Party if Obama is ahead, anyway.

It’s totally backwards, people join or leave a party based on changes in what they think or believe, that the cause of a voting pattern, this gentleman treats it as an effect.

Now I don’t claim to be a professional poll guy. I don’t work at Gallup and the only people paying me are my advertisers and tip jar hitters. I trust my readers. If you decide he’s right and I’m all wet, that’s fine, if you think I’m right that’s fine too. I’m more than happy to see what happens when the votes are counted and we find out who is right.

But the math is the math and no computer model can change it.

The MSM or your own eyes?

OK, if you believe the polls, Mitt Romney’s 10 points behind in Ohio. But then there are those people — THOUSANDS of people — who stood in line in the rain to get in to see Mitt this afternoon in downtown Toledo:

OK so it’s Stacy McCain’s eyes but you get the point:

Because people in losing campaigns ALWAYS generate giant lines to see candidates who have tanked in your state and hear them speak:

“The world need the example of America”
That’s something that’s been missing for a while.

I would remind you I’ve seen the same kind of crowds in New Hampshire. But the MSM knows better after all winning campaigns ALWAYS give out free phones to get people to vote for them:

And that Libya stuff as reminded by this video at Ace of Spades HQ our Ambassador likely had it coming:

Meanwhile Stacy McCain still residing in realville writes in his American Spectator piece about the doom & gloomers making an important point:

It is easy for cynical pundits and dyspeptic critics to minimize what this election means. Whatever the results on November 6, the TV talking heads will still have their network sinecures on November 7. David Brooks won’t forfeit any book contracts and Peggy Noonan won’t lose any lecture fees, just because Obama wins the election. Such members of the GOP’s professional intelligentsia have never cast their lot with the Tea Party, nor have they shown any empathy for the grassroots activists who are manning phone banks and distributing yard signs, the volunteers motivated by a sincere belief that defeating Obama is essential to the preservation of the American Republic.

They don’t need an Obama Phone they just need to be told how smart they are. As for the rest of us

Remarkable irony: Many of those conservative now working hardest to elect Mitt Romney are conservatives who spent the primary campaign supporting other candidates in an effort to prevent Romney’s nomination as the “It’s His Turn” choice of the party establishment. Meanwhile, the elite pundits who spent the primary season nitpicking every fault of Romney’s rivals are now the first to raise the white flag of surrender, abandoning hope in the candidate that they insisted was the only one in the GOP field with any realistic chance to win in November.

Our problem isn’t our candidate, it’s our media more interested in looking smart to the elites they hang with.

I’ve written a lot about the skew in the polls but today in the hot air green room Matt Vespa in the process of debunking Chris “The sky is falling for the GOP” Cilliza brings up a point that almost nobody is talking about:

This leads us to the next poll: the direction of the country. What “jolt of optimism” is Cillizza talking about? Rasmussen has 36% of Americans believing the nation is on the right track.

Now while we give our friends on the left a few minutes to scream how: “Rasmussen can’t be trusted” business lets take a look at the overall numbers in this poll since Jan 2009 the month Barack Obama Took office:

When you look at that chart remember this is an AVERAGE of every single polls that is measured not a single poll that skews one way or the other.

Right now the MSM is running a ton of polls with huge Democrat skews yet take a look at the results at the end of the chart for today:

56.3 vs 37.6 Wrong track over right track that’s a spread of 18.7 and consider this: The CBS/NYT poll and the NBC/WSJ poll, the two polls that are the most skewed have a wrong track/right track numbers of -19 & -16 respectively.

Think about that: Even with a sample that couldn’t favor Obama more if they were paid employees of the white house they can’t even get a gap of less that 10 pts let alone a favorable number.

More importantly consider the historical perspective:

You have to go to June 13th 2009 to find a day during the last 4 years where the right track/wrong track numbers were equal.

On Jan 20th 2010 the national spread was 56.9 to 36.6 just 2.4 off today’s number yet the day before Massachusetts, a state that nobody contends is a state where the president has a chance of losing in 2012 elected a Republican senator to replace the late Ted Kennedy.

On Election day 2010 the spread of 63.8 to 31.2 A 32.6 points gap, just under double what it is today and the GOP won nationwide in an election so historic it reached into statehouses all over the country.

On September 13th 2011 the spread was 73.6 to 20.8 a gap of 52.8 and for the first time since Woodrow Wilson was president a republican won an election in the 9th district of NY right in the heart of New York City.

What does that mean for today?

On Election day 2012, It is unlikely the right direction/ wrong direction spread will be 52.8. That suggest Mitt Romney isn’t going to manage to win the State of New York.

On Election day 2012 It is unlikely the right/wrong spread will be 32.6. That suggests Mitt Romney isn’t going to manage a victory of historic proportions all over the country.

But with just over 40 days to the election with polls so skewed it’s a wonder the computers they are tabulated on don’t tip over the right/wrong track is 18.7 pretty close to the numbers on the Day Scott Brown was first elected, does that mean Mitt is going to do well enough to take a state as blue as Massachusetts?

I think not, but unfortunately for the left, he doesn’t have to take Massachusetts, or New York or any other deep blue state. He has to take the states in the middle, the ones that once voted for the GOP but went to Obama in the heady days of Nov 2008 for the left.

And a with a right track / wrong track number of 18.7 that’s not only doable that’s practically inevitable.

I’m sure there are people who might not like Mitt Romney, I’m sure there are those who don’t like he is a Mormon, those who don’t like he is rich and those who think he’s kind of stiff.

But unless you live in the land of deep blue delusion nobody in their right mind would suggest he is unqualified to be president.

This election isn’t going to be about: “Do I like Mitt Romney?” This election isn’t even going to be about “Has Barack Obama done a good job” the polling shows the verdict is already in on it.

The people are dying to vote against Barack Obama, all Mitt Romney has to do is convince them he can do the job, because Barack Obama has already convinced them he can’t.

VDH notes how few votes it would have taken to make 1980 a Carter victory

In other words, until the very last week of the campaign, Reagan had an uphill fight. True, he eventually won a landslide victory in the Electoral College (489 to 49) and beat Carter handily in the popular vote. Yet Reagan only received a 51-percent majority.

What had saved Reagan from a perfect storm of negative factors — gaffes, additional conservative candidates on the ballot, a single debate, and a biased media — was not just the debate. Voter turnout was relatively low at only 53 percent. If Reagan’s conservative base was united and energized, Carter’s proved divided and indifferent.

Mitt doesn’t have a John Anderson but he also doesn’t have Reagan’s charisma, his conclusion:

The winner probably won’t be decided by old video clips, gaffes, or even campaign money, but by turnout and the October debates — depending on whether incumbent Obama comes across as a petulant Carter and challenger Romney appears an upbeat Reagan. As in 1980, voters want a better president — but they first have to be assured he’s on the ballot.

If you are anything resembling a regular reader you know I’m Catholic, VERY Catholic, my last Subscription only commentary was done in front of my church after mass. I will happily debate and defend Christianity in general and Catholicism in particular against any person of any religion or no religion.

I’m also an American, an American who believes in free speech so my first instinct when I see this story is outrage:

The case against Ahmed Mohammed Abdullah is a rare example of Egypt’s blasphemy laws – often condemned by rights groups as restrictive of freedom – used against someone who allegedly insulted a religion other than Islam.

Abdullah, also known as Abu Islam, was filmed during a protest outside the embassy two weeks ago as he stood before the crowd and tore an English version of the Bible. “Next time I will urinate on it,” he says in another video in an apparent reference to the holy book. Both videos were posted online.

I don’t like people insulting my religion and in one sense this is progress for Egypt that the “blasphemy laws” are being enforced against those who insult Christianity, but that doesn’t matter.

You can not have a free society without free speech, you just can’t. For an American free speech is the backbone of our culture, the first freedom mentioned in the first Amendment in our constitution. The Statue of Liberty refers to people “yearning to breathe free”.

I’m outraged by “Piss Christ” but as long as tax dollars are not spent on it, while I might protest it, I acknowledge the right of the “artist” to produce it, (the day he produces “piss Koran” then I’ll know how brave he is). I am outraged by PZ Myers and insist his employer enforce their own standards concerning his actions desecrating the Eucharist, but I don’t dispute for a single moment his right to do this or even encourage others to do so. I laugh at the Blasphemy challenge and point out their premise if false, but I don’t want their videos taken down. As a Christian I pray for these folks and would encourage others to do so, as an AMERICAN even if it angers me their rights are vital to preserve my own right to say something like this:

That’s why I think we should be loud in saying this is wrong. And that’s also why I think this person should be ashamed of herself for trying to restrict Pam Geller free speech because she doesn’t like it.

This is America 101, if you don’t get it then you haven’t learned anything in a lifetime being here.

Update: We have reached a point in NYC where if a vandal defaces a legal ad we now ban that ad? in AMERICA?

Just one day after an Islamic activist attempted to cover over private property in spray paint (and a woman who got in her way), the Metropolitan Transit Authority in New York has announced they will amend their rules to prohibit the types of advertisements that offended her.

The New York Times reports the MTA will prohibit any advertisements that it “reasonably foresees would imminently incite or provoke violence or other immediate breach of the peace.” Those “viewpoint” ads that do not meet this criteria will be allowed, so long as a disclaimer is included saying the MTA does not endorse them. The MTA met on Thursday to discuss the rules, which were approved unanimously 8-0.

I am a Catholic, and my belief system doesn’t allow a violent veto of speech or opinions I disagree with but I suspect people who don’t share my beliefs will rightfully conclude that all it takes is a little push, a touch of vandalism or violence and NYC will fold like a wet blanket.

The cultural left is damn lucky Christians are not what they portray us to be.

If you told me this was possible four years ago I would have called you mad.

Update 2: Hey a Jewish Community Center is Sweden has been bombed, obviously NYC will advise the Swedes that the proper response is to ban Jewish Community Centers since they obviously provoke bombers.

Update 3: Instalanche and Glenn puts it well

My advice to the Religious Right: Deface anything you find offensive. That’s clearly how to get your way.

All this is going to do is empower a bunch of 21st century John Browns who think they are the only people who can save the country. In case you haven’t figured this out yet, this is a very bad thing.

Today I have a column at Examiner on the Ovide Lamontagne event in Atkinson NH (Sunday I’ll talk about the great pizza place there as well) and I talk about what Chris Christie said:

Governor Christie gave a rousing 18 minute speech that gave a message well-tailored to New Hampshire

If you let a liberal politician in the door and give them permission to give you a new tax, they only know one direction for that tax to go and that’s up

He game a specific example from his home state:

“35 years ago we didn’t have an income tax in NJ no income tax like right here in NH, we had no income tax and Governor Brendon Byrne, a democrat said: If you just give me a small income tax, a little one, I will lower your property taxes, we had the highest property taxes in America back in 1977 so 35 years later, what have we got? We’ve STILL got the highest property taxes in America and the income tax that started at 2% under governor Byrne is now 9%”

By all means click on the story as I’m paid by the click, but even better that the article is this except of the Christie speech I’ve already posted.

As a rule I don’t excerpt my videos and the full speech is awesome but this closing section is one of the best arguments I’ve ever heard vs liberalism. If it was played in every single household of parents with children or grandparents they would never elect another tax & spend liberal again.

“God damn you, don’t cheer me. Fight!”

General Phil Sheridan

Yesterday while he was campaigning in NY for GOP candidate Ovide Lamontagne I asked NJ Governor Chris Christie  about the poll skews and media dishonesty.  His answer was pure Christie:

“I don’t think you win races by complaining about and whining about the media you bring your message out and then you know what to do.”

This is a very important point, While it is important for us in the New Media to call out the MSM and the dishonest CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll the worst thing the Romney campaign can do is go off message.

As the Washington times put it months ago:

If voters decide the 2012 election based on Obama’s economic record, he will lose. And so the liberal media, as in love with him as ever, is helping him parade shiny objects to distract voters from that record.

and this is what these polls are all about, the goal is to take Romney off the current game that has him according to this same CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll AHEAD with independents in both Ohio & Florida (they didn’t provide figures for Pennsylvania).

If Romney is taking 90%+ from GOP voters and wins independents in these states he wins, PERIOD. Whatever he is doing seems to be having that effect. This means he needs to keep doing what he is doing and MORE of it, the Examiner again from the same editorial:

If he wishes to be president, Romney must not take the bait.

This doesn’t worry me Mitt Romney’s strengths, he is a “realville” numbers guy, one glance at these internals and he will under stand it and is unlikely to take the bait and change course from a message that is winning among independents.

The MSM will do it’s best to try to make him do otherwise and some of the pseudo “professional” GOP talking heads the network hires will agree but Mitt Romney knows what he is doing and that is this

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

and let me tell you Mitt Romney knows about horses.

Many years ago there were only the major papers and the three big networks, so when a poll like the current CBS/NYT Quinnipiac poll that Morning Joe is reporting as the doom of the Romney Campaign would never be questioned. Instead you would only see these results:

but those days are gone and the new media is alive so while the Morning Joe table continues to do their victory dance I took a look at these polls from Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania and on the very last line of the very last page Found the following:

So with a sample that is D+9 in Florida, Barack Obama has a +9 lead on Mitt Romney! In Ohio with a D+9 Sample Obama has a +10 Lead and in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample he has +12 lead.

Now I have absolutely no trouble believing these states are close nor to I disagree that Mitt Romney should be more aggressive but come ON guys?

By an odd coincidence the last time this poll came out Hugh Hewett questioned Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls and asked him about this (emphasis mine):

Hugh Hewett: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?

Peter Brown: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.

HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?

PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.

HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…

PB: Well, I mean…

HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?

PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.

HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?

PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.

HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Mind you this is the guy who actually does the poll saying this

Let me close with this bit from the American Spectator and an exchange between Ben Bradlee and Ed Rollins from 2004

A few weeks later, the Washington Post ran a story that confirmed Rollins’ initial beliefs. The Post confessed that… well… oops… it had made a mistake with those California polling numbers. Shortly afterward came the November election, with California once again giving Reagan a more than 16 point victory. In fact, Reagan carried 49 states, winning the greatest landslide victory in presidential history while losing Minnesota in — yes — a close race. Mondale had 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54%, a difference of .18% that might have been changed by all that money that went into California. Making Reagan the first president in history to win all fifty states.

After the [2004] election, Ed Rollins ran into the Washington Post’s blunt-speaking editor Ben Bradlee and “harassed” Bradlee “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology.”

Bradlee’s “unrepentant” response?

“Tough sh…t, Rollins, I’m glad it cost you plenty. It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

Got that?

Now that election wasn’t close, this election will be a lot closer. Is this an in-kind contribution for The One? You tell me.

This is why the MSM will always hate the New Media, in Ben Bradlee’s day they would never be called on this. Today we will call them on it every single day.

Update: I can’t believe I forgot to check the numbers with independents but it’s make this poll even MORE of a joke:

Here is the split among independents in Florida according to the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll

In Ohio

They don’t provide figures in Pa which I found strange but lets ask the obvious question

How do you reconcile +9 point Obama leads if Romney leads with BOTH independents & Republicans? And do you REALLY believe that Obama is doing better among democrats than Romney is among republicans by enough to make up for that difference. Do you REALLY?

John Nolte puts it best:


In 2004 the vote was R+4.
In 2008 the vote was D+3
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

In 2004 the vote was R+5
In 2008 the vote was D+8
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9


In 2010 the vote was D+3
In 2008 the vote was D+7
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

Again, why won’t the media report the dramatic news that Democrats are expected to turnout in record numbers against Republicans?

Because the media doesn’t believe it.

This isn’t reporting, this is propaganda and frankly after Romney wins should be treated as an in-kind contribution to the DNC, these are also not the tactics of a side that is winning.

Update 2:
Stacy McCain is less diplomatic than me

journalism is also my profession, and the fact that I’m pursuing it on a blog doesn’t change my astonishment at the utter shamelessness of these people. As usual this morning, I’ve been watching MSNBC and I think this would be an accurate headline:


It’s really that bad. I watch MSNBC so you don’t have to, and their crew is practically breaking out the champagne to celebrate these poll numbers. Their smug self-satisfied glee makes me want Romney to stomp Obama so bad that Chuck Todd is crying like a little girl on Election Night.

Is that a Neutral and Objective urge?

Perhaps not, but at least I’m honest about it, and there’s that old thing about “afflicting the comfortable.” Keep in mind that Chuck Todd is not just a partisan talking-head MSNBC commentator; he is political director of NBC News.

I can’t wait to see the explanations come election day.

Update 4: Neo Neocon notes that Quinnipiac has a different defination of Big Red Flag than I do

From what Brown says, Quinnipiac doesn’t stratify its polls unless there’s a huge red flag staring them in the face. But Gallup does. Its accuracy would depend on what parameters it uses for stratification, and how well they reflect reality.

Or maybe a dem skew is considered a “huge blue flag” so that’s OK.

I scooted up to Atkinson NH to cover Ovide Lamontage & Chris Christie doing an event together in the small town of Atkinson NH at the Freshwater Far

I arrived an hour and scoped out the area

Sign wavers were already in evidence:

I spoke to several people here before the event couples


and Young Republicans

I also talked to don who runs a the Valley Patriot:

the area were they were assembled was aside of the store:

and the view from the “stage”

I sat myself on the ground in front of the makeshift stage and waited,

before I did I counted just over 200 people but they continued to come

When things were ready it started with a local state senator:

Followed by Steve Merrill the former governor

Ovide Lamontagne spoke and the crowd was very receptive. It was a smart move, although as the candidate he understood he wasn’t the primary attraction

I remember the Bill Clinton event I covered during the first Brown race Martha Coakley foolishly came after Clinton and like that day Chris Christie gave one of the most memorable speeches I’ve heard

I thought Gov Christie’s speech was the single best speech I’ve heard in the entire election season to this point

When all was done I asked Mr. Lamontagne about the event, he was understandably happy

While Chris Christie answered my question in a way that fit in perfectly with his “ride right through them” persona.

While I have some issues with Christie, one can’t help but like his direct ways. If people think he will not be a contender in the future they have another think coming

The entire gallery follows:

The latest in our Subscription only videos deals with the Church and the left and why there are in conflict:

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This commentary builds on this post

By the standards of the Democrat party just about every president, every member of congress, and every governor who served in the 20th century and before is a racist, bigot homophobe.

If you are not already a subscriber simply click the subscribe button on the left and as for as little as the price of a Starbucks coffee you can get the commentaries twice a week every week.

I’m going to be in NH covering an event so I might be a tad late getting the codes to you but as soon as I get my notification you will get the password for this weeks videos.

In a sane and normal world this video would not make a single bit of difference in the Senate Election in Massachusetts:

However the odds of this not going viral is the same as Lindsay Lohan & Amanda Bynes deciding to become Amish so it is going to have to be dealt with. So here is my advice to the Brown campaign:

Best choice: Put out a statement saying something along the lines of this:

Although I agree with the sentiments concerning the NY Yankees this behavior is not acceptable, I condemn it and ask my supporters to conduct themselves with decorum. We are a campaign that believes in doing the right thing

At the same time I would ask the Elizabeth campaign to also do the right thing and release the info concerning her hiring. Professor Warren has claimed she did not use her “native American” to get these positions. The right thing would be to release this information and let the public see for themselves.

Acceptable choice:

I would like to come out and officially say I do not agree with or condone the actions of those chanting at this event. We expect all of our supporters to carry themselves properly and will not tolerate actions to the contrary.

Get a statement out before noon so it plays at once, this needs to be an old story by the time 5 p.m. comes around. After the statement is made, don’t go there again, if the media presses use the first statement to bring up Warren’s lack of transparency & contrast it to you “doing the right thing”

Above all let the Warren Campaign and the MSM overplay it.

Do not: Downplay or Ignore, Why, because the media will not ignore this and will run with it as long as you ignore it (and beyond).

There is a smart and foolish response for the Warren Campaign too, but as she’s not paying me and I’m on the other side so I’ll let her figure that our herself, my guess she will play it dead wrong.

I’ve been very careful not to play that game (also not to sue anybody or to file any criminal complaint), leaving them with nothing else to do except recycle old smears. And my “much higher income”? Yeah, armagnac and decolletage!

What I am paid to do is cover the news. These distractions from Rauhauser aren’t going to stop me from earning my pay, and so I’m off to Ohio to cover the Romney-Ryan bus tour,

Robert Stacy McCain The Best Revenge Ohio Bound 9-24-12

A few days ago I got a call from Robert Stacy McCain asking me if I could join drive down to his undisclosed location (that he offered to disclose) pick him up and head for Ohio.

My situation did not allow it, so Stacy was able (with some effort apparently) to change Ali Akbar’s mind to join him for yet another trip to cover the Mitt Romney Bus Trip in Ohio.

Stacy has photos here and a piece in the Spectator here but this really isn’t so much about this particular trip nor the idea of Stacy & Ali on the road.

It’s about stuff like this:

NC Chairman Reince Priebus just held an impromptu press gaggle and said, “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-to-1 for the next six weeks.” Asked about polls showing Romney-Ryan trailing in Ohio, Priebus said “we’re within a field goal and we’re going to crush [the Democrats] on the ground.”

I’m watching Morning Joe right now and I haven’t seen a word about this declaration by the chairman of the GOP. I don’t pretend to have been doing this long or having been trained in this business (BS CSC minor US History) but the blunt statement that: “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-1 for six weeks” from the GOP chairman is what we call “News!”

Now the new Mitt Romney ad “No we can’t” is devastating

but although I can give informed opinion on it, ANYONE can see it and give opinion on it.

But today Chris Christie the Governor of NJ is going to be in NH trying to help Ovide Lamontagne put the corner office of a swing state back in the hands of the GOP and I intend to cover it.

It won’t be as long a drive as Ohio and I’ll still have a chance to drop my youngest off for his classes but there will be first hand photos and video from the scene.

This is the real strength of the new media, granted Stacy McCain is a Hybrid as a longtime reporter who uses new media as to some degree am I since I’ve had 50,000 watts of radio power to back me up but consider. This message that Mr. Priebus will be out to tens of thousands of people who will share it will tens of thousands more regardless of what the MSM tells you.

While Morning Joe insists Scott Brown is “desperate” William Jacobson informs you of Elizabeth Warren “missing” law license.

While the MSM doesn’t look toward NH (where the Democrat candidate for governor Maggie Hassan is careful to avoid the words “Barack Obama” & “Democrat” in her ads). I and other blogs such as Granite Grok will cover it.

This is what the new media does, this is what it is. If you go to a political event, shoot video and ask questions you are doing what media was designed to do and with the Internet, facebook, twitter et/al if you cover something significant or even small, you have the chance to fill the void that the MSM leaves when it doesn’t suit their agendas.

There is no substitute for being there. Be there make the difference and watch the MSM howl!

I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.

This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:

Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:

Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Romney – 44%
Undecided – 4%

This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an outside chance of winning in Massachusetts he needs big numbers in areas outside of Boston, Worcester & Springfield.

Meanwhile in the Congressional race looks very similar

Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik­ – 45%
Undecided – 3%

Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.

Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.

Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%

At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls

Female – 55%

Male – 45%

Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)

“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”

I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:

Democrat – 31%
Republican – 17%
Independent / Other – 52%

That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:

In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women

Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik

And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!

Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.

While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.


Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.

Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.

This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do

1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.

2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.

3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)

The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.

This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this:  In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample  has an opponent in striking range.

If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?

And it shouts to the right loud and clear:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.

I wanted to write something about the assisted suicide referendum but I could spend an hour on it and I could not do better than what my Pastor Fr. Robert Bruso did this week in my church bulletin:

“The vote in November on Physician Assisted Suicide is not about an individual choice,; it is a threat to all of us. Anyone with a memory can recite time after time when the government introduced an option that became a mandate. Anyone who trust government officials to keep their word is idealistic to a fault.

We all remember when Sunday opening for retail stories was introduced. We were assured that no one would ever be required to work on Sunday if it violated their conscience. Ask anyone in retail what would happen if they said they will not work on Sunday.

We all remember when abortion was legalized. We were assured no doctor would ever be required to perform an abortion. Ask any medical student in gynaecology/obstetrics hat will happen if they say they will not participate or observe an abortion as part of their studies.

“Recently I was speaking to a nurse at Beth Israel Hospital in Boston who had a patient who had a heart procedure there. He was from Europe but his daughter lived in the United States and he came here because in his country, heart procedures are not performed on people over 75. If he didn’t have connections in the US, he would have just died. The pressure on insurance companies to lower the cost of health care is such that, I can guarantee you this: If Physician Assisted Suicide becomes legal in this country we will be in the same position much of Europe is today. The impetus to give people “death with dignity” that is, kill them off when they become a burden, will take over and no one but the wealthiest will be allowed to live if they are ill and elderly. I can envision a kind of “super-premium” on health insurance for those who want continued care after a certain age.

Abortion is more than the thin edge of the wedge. We sit idly by as a million human babies are chopped up into little pieces and flushed away each year. Even Hitler didn’t do that. In any godless society , human life loses its intrinsic value and has only relative value. Being made in the image and likeness of God gives every person worth, value and intrinsic dignity. Without God we are just cogs in a wheel, to be removed when we get rusty.

A baby is precious if the mother wants him or her, otherwise s/he is just a fetus, an unnecessary growth to be removed. A person who is ill is worth of care and compassion unless the money runs out.

My father always said: “If someone tells you ‘it’s not the money it’s the principle,’ trust me it’s the money.” Physician Assisted Suicide is all about death with dignity? Hogwash! It’s all about the cost of care for the elderly and the terminally ill and our generation will pay the price if we’re not willing to stand up now.”

If the right to life goes all other rights are meaningless.

If it’s day ending in “y” we have a poll showing Mitt Romney in terrible shape:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

It’s interesting to note that on TV this split being played up a lot more than in the written story. On Morning Joe this was evidence Mitt Romney DOOM! (no video available yet)

However Dalek Media not withstanding I live in realville and in realville we judge polls by their internals and the internals of this poll have two results that say a lot:

Let’s zoom in on that

So we have a poll with a 43-40 sample D + 3 but lets look even closer at the internals. They asked a really good question:

Which of these statements best describes how you have usually voted in past elections:

Not only do you have a 49-45 split D vs R here but look at the straight/strongly numbers and you have D + 7 split.

Let’s remind everyone where the Electorate actually is:

Ok lets give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and assume that after the DNC convention who’s most memorable moment is needing a phony vote to put God & Jerusalem back in the platform the 4.3 GOP August advantage has gone back to a 0.9 that existed in July. That still means this poll is off +4 to +5

As I’m typing this Chuck Todd is saying in every “legitimate poll” president Obama is ahead (thus he discounts the new PA poll showing a 2 pt gap but as I haven’t seen internals yet I’m still withholding judgement on it.) so I ask this question to Chuck Todd via Twitter?

I submit and suggest that until the media answers that question, all they are doing is spreading Democrat propaganda.

I don’t pretend I am not unbiased but the numbers are the numbers, if you have the numbers to back up what you say, provide them, if you don’t then you are simply an in-kind contribution to the Barack Obama campaign.

BTW I call the MSM the “Dalek Media” because no matter what MSM show you see they all look alike, all sound alike and if you dare speak words that contradict their liberal narrative this is their reaction:

Update: Latest PPP poll in Florida Obama up +4 but unfortunately for those pushing the poll some of us live in realville and want to see the splits:

Not only do we have a D+8 sample on this poll but when it’s known that Democrats do better with women and the GOP with men this poll has a +6 split women over men.

Update 2: Heard back from the reporter who did the initial story on the PA poll, internals go out tomorrow but he directed me to this link which shows a D+6 sample

First, our ratio of interviews conducted with Republicans and Democrats in our recent polls (49D – 43R) gives Democrats a 6-point advantage based on the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in actual registration. However, this ratio is slightly more Republican based on both national and state polling showing that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year given high intensity among Republicans who strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance. Nonetheless, this +6 Democratic advantage is only one point less Democrat than the 7-point advantage these same exit polls gave Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.

Oh and fixed a bad link.

Did you Miss Saturday’s show? For SHAME.

But no worry you can listen to it here

And remember if you want to get access to this week’s Subscription/Tip Jar only videos (Tuesday’s and Fridays) hit DaTipJar and I’ll send you the codes this week or Subscribe at any level and you’ll get the passwords as long as your subscription is maintained.

Update btw if you missed Rush quoting me on his show, it’s available here (thanks to Daily Rushbo)

He doesn’t do the name of the blog very well:

but I’ll take it!

You might recall that at the end of my interview with Fr. Peter West we were heading in to do a Rosary.

Here is the full Rosary of the Luminous Mysteries for you to pray along with one decade at a time via Youtube

Opening Prayers & The Baptism of Christ

The Miracle of Cana

The Proclamation of the Kingdom of Heaven

The Transfiguration

The Institution of the Eucharist & Closing Prayers (Had to change cards at the start)

My personal intention is the health of my co-Host John, but I also offer this Rosary for the intentions of all the readers of come to this post.

Two years ago at my very first CPAC in Washington DC after interviewing a bunch of Republicans (which one might expect to meet at CPAC) I walked down to the McDonalds at the bottom of the hill for a cheap lunch and noted some transit workers. I decided to interview them and asked one “Why are you a Democrat” they turned it around and asked me why I was a Republican and I answered thus:

“What made me be a Republican was because of, well Catholicism. I’m anti-abortion, and when it came to abortion & gay marriage in my state of Massachusetts it came to be that if I agreed with my church, I’m a Catholic and I’m very Catholic and I’ve been all my life, that people were calling me a racist and a bigot for believing my beliefs and that, that was the final straw for me. ‘Cause I had been a democrat all my life and my mother the same way and I felt I wasn’t welcome.”

Well it took a few years but via Stacy McCain, it looks like some Christians in the Black Community have finally caught up with me.

My friends the Democrat party and their progressive coalition have become anti God, anti Bible, anti church anti family, anti marriage, and anti-life. They have turned their backs on Christians, it’s time for us to turn our backs on them.

By the standards of the Democrat party just about every president, every member of congress, and every governor who served in the 20th century and before is a racist, bigot homophobe.

I really think the party made this shift this year by design. If there was a white candidate at the top of the ticket it would not be all that hard for Black Pastors to rebel but with Barack Obama Black Americans on the spot between their loyalty to the first black president and their God.

This is what the democrat party has come to, If you had told me this would be the case in the 70’s or early 80’s I would have laughed at you.

With apologies to Kipling

It is always a temptation;
when you live on agitation
To call upon a business and to say; —
“We protested you last night
 — back with media tonight
“Unless you pay us cash to go away”

Once that was called the Dane-geld
And the leftists who ask for it explain
That you’ve only to pay ’em modern Dane-Gled
And you’ll be rid of protests that very day

It is always a temptation
for a company that’s craven,
To puff and look important and to say: —
“Though we don’t support your actions
 , we don’t want the press distraction
So we’ll pay you guys to simply go away.

Once that was called paying the Dane-geld
And Al Sharpton & Jess Jackson did explain:
That ’til you come across with modern Dane-Geld
The cry of “racist” never goes away.

It’s always a Temptation,
To a pol, for Vindication
To feed supporters and an Angry base
Chick-Fil-A, its Christian leanings,
Kept the Left, it kept them seething:
So the Mayor of old Beantown was to say:

“Chick-Fil-A I demand a Dane-Geld
Maybe call it Gay-Geld coin a phrase
To open you here you must pay this Gay-Geld
And toss those Christian principles away

It is always a Temptation,
when the media it shakes ’em
To avoid a cry: “You guys are anti-gay”
But Chick’s customers objected
and one Wednesday they came venting
And blew all sales records, just to say:

“Chick-Fil-A you must not pay this Gay-Geld
Don’t act to feed a pandering pols ways
We’ll stand in line to save you from that Gay-Geld
For Christ and for our Free speech we will pay

And as promised they kept coming,
making registers a hummin
Saying you don’t have to give in on this day
Yet Chicago is attractive,
Hungry People it’s not lackin’
So a power tripping Alderman did say:

Chick-Fil-A pay unto me this Gay-Geld
Don’t let those Christian principles hold sway
There’s lots of chicken lovers in Chicago
And our deal don’t have to see da light of day

It is always a temptation
To employ some obfuscation
Advancing your agenda just that way
So the Alderman went crowing
On the media unloading
That he had brought around ole Chick-Fil-A

So the media reported on the Gay-Geld
That Chick-Fil-a seemingly had paid
A great win with the payment of this Gay-Geld
And all the left did shout “Hip Hip hooray!”

It is always a temptation
To vent your great frustration
When you feel you have been horribly betrayed
So the people started tweeting
Or on Facebook it was wreaking
Massive havoc as in one voice they proclaimed

“So you decided to go and pay the Gay Geld,
Just To sell some extra chicken in one place
And for a single new Restaurant location
We thousand thousand folks will go away

It is always a temptation
To give some clarification
When the news reports aren’t right in what they say
But words too diplomatic
Can turn all parties frantic
And double all your trouble right away

Till everyone cries “did you pay the Dane Geld
Or did you not? don’t play these silly games
Just tell us strait did you pay that dane-geld
‘for we all think that we are being played

So if temptation comes a wisperin’,
take the lesson Fil-A missin’
No deal, no talk just don’t negotiate
When the left it comes a callin’
threatening protest at the mails in
Your Business will find it better just to say: —

“We’ll neither pay a Dane-Geld nor a Gay-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
‘Cause the price is our oppression
or confusion never endin’
So you and yours can simply just get lost”

This is Largely as I predicted except the Silly Party won. I think this was due to the number of votes cast.

Michael Palin Monty Python’s Flying Circus 1970

Today on PJ Media Roger Kimball has a post answering those who are convinced that Mitt Romney might as well send themselves home because Barack Obama The One™ has this race in a walk and it’s all over but the shouting. He reminds them of two words: “President Dukakis”

I ran into an old Yale friend the other night who told me about a party he attended among what he called the bien pensant elite of New Haven. The conversation drifted to the election, and that febrile sense of grateful certainty asserted itself into the proceedings. My friend quietly demurred, breaking the mood of self-congratulation. Could it be that he had a different opinion? He didn’t really think, did he, that anything other than an overwhelming victory for Obama was possible? He simply smiled and suggested that they ask President Dukakis what he thought. I think the party dispersed soon thereafter.

“President Dukakis.” Remember him? He had it “in the bag,” too. He was a shoo in, a cert, the hands-down favorite, even the Republicans acknowledged it — right up until the moment he lost.

I read this piece after the show and it struck me. I remember 1998 1988, I was much younger, less experienced and still a Democrat working at Raytheon while running a small business at the same time (I left to run my business full time around July of that year) I remember being 25 and full of myself and was talking to a Union Steward about the impending Dukakis victory. He was a man in his forties and of some experience to me and he explained to me concisely why I was totally wrong going over Dukakis’ record and how people would react to various things. Although I really respected the fellow and would listen to him talk about all kinds of subjects I dismissed him at the time thinking the I was MUCH more familiar with history and the news. I had read all I could on the election and was sure he was wrong.

When George Bush won I was dumbfounded, how could all I read and all that I saw be so wrong?

The answer never occurred to me until today.

On DaTechGuy on DaRadio with Tom White of I made the point that no matter what the media is saying the new media, talk radio, facebook and the internet were getting the word out to people. For example The internet provided the data that I used to make the post on Polling.

The MSM has ignored the analysis but the new media has not, thanks to the net, blogs and Rush Limbaugh that argument of mine has been viewed by over 33,000 people in under a week.

Now think of 1998 1988 for a moment: In 1998 1988 there was no internet, there was no Drudge. No Fox News and Rush Limbaugh would only become national in August of that year and not the force of nature he is today.

Picture for a second if there were people attending rallies, writing articles, analyzing polls, recording what is actually being said and putting that information out to the entire world. If that was taking place in 1988 do you think for one moment the mask on the actual state of the Dukakis campaign would not have been torn off long before election day?

This is the state that we are in now. The left is playing the same function as they did that year, trying their best to create the illusion of a winning campaign for Obama when none exists, but today while the MSM attempts to hide the unpleasant realities from liberal, an Army of Davids behind keyboards & cameras are spreading the word (That would be a great title for a book).

24 years ago Roger Kimball would have sat confident but alone, today tens of thousands will read his words and march forward.

Be afraid leftists, be very afraid.

Update: For some reason typed 1998 when I meant 1988 several times, fixed thanks to Pretzel_logic for the catch

Today on DaTechGuy on DaRadio 10 AM EST we are talking the Polls and the so interesting samples that the media is Ignoring

At 10:30 we’ll be talking to Tom of VA-Right who did the work the MSM doesn’t want to do on the Polls in Virginia

And if two hours of DaTechGuy on DaRadio are just not enough Tune in from 7-10 AM EST today. I’ll be joining Mike Wade on Conservatively Speaking as we talk Conservatism with a Massachusetts based focus as we fight the good fight in this bluest of states.

At 9 a.m. Mike will be guest hosting the Carol Ann Brown Show we’ll be talking the economy with a conservative bent

and then at 10 a.m DaTechGuy on DaRadio for two hours of the best talk there is

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“You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means”

Indgo Montoya The Princess Bride

There are now reports that Chick-Fil-A has not in fact changed their charitable positions, Michelle Malkin:

When I first saw reports on Twitter that Chick-fil-A had caved to the tolerance mob, I despaired. Corporation after corporation has given in to the free speech-squelching agitators on the Left who demand political conformity.

Turns out the information was coming from progressive activists trying to shape a false narrative.

She is referring to this statement that is pretty long winded to say something that shouldn’t take so many words:

In response to media reports that Chick-fil-A has agreed to stop making charitable donations to groups like Focus on the Family, the company today released a statement to set the record straight.

Contrary to reports first made by the gay-activist group The Civil Rights Agenda (TCRA) on Tuesday and later picked up by mainstream media outlets, Chick-fil-A and its charitable-giving arm, the WinShape Foundation, did not agree to stop making donations to groups that support the biblical definition of marriage in exchange for being allowed to open a franchise in Chicago.

“For many months now, Chick-fil-A’s corporate giving has been mischaracterized,” executives said in today’s statement. “And while our sincere intent has been to remain out of this political and social debate, events from Chicago this week have once again resulted in questions around our giving. For that reason, we want to provide some context and clarity around who we are, what we believe and our priorities in relation to corporate giving.

and this on the Huckabee site:

I talked earlier today personally with Dan Cathy, CEO of Chick Fil-A about the new reports that Chick Fil-A had capitulated to demands of the supporters of same sex marriage. This is not true. The company continues to focus on the fair treatment of all of its customers and employees, but to end confusion gave me this statement:

“There continues to be erroneous implications in the media that Chick-fil-A changed our practices and priorities in order to obtain permission for a new restaurant in Chicago. That is incorrect. Chick-fil-A made no such concessions, and we remain true to who we are and who we have been.”

The Baptist press had more to say:

Chick-fil-A’s base of support remains largely in conservative states, and those customers hardly consider Focus on the Family and other groups “anti-gay.” Many felt Chick-fil-A had caved.

Earlier this summer, hundreds of thousands of customers took part in Chick-fil-A Appreciation after company president Dan Cathy was criticized for comments supporting the biblical definition of marriage. Chick-fil-A’s stance on values is well-known: It is closed on Sundays, and its corporate statement includes the desire to “glorify God.”

In the 24 hours after the story out of Chicago broke, Chick-fil-A’s Facebook page was flooded with criticism of the new policy.

NBC’s story further clouded the issue:

Chick-fil-A tried to keep the agreement under wraps, said Rick Garcia, TCRA senior policy advisor. “My perspective is they want to have it both ways,” he said. “They’re getting opposition all over major metropolitan areas particularly in the north… The dilemma for them is will this hurt them with the right wingers?”

The problem here is semantics, to the left if you do not support Gay Marriage you are “Anti-Gay” under that definition the percentage of “anti-gay” people in the US was in the high 90% until just a few years ago

Garcia is now upset

“I am angry and disgusted,” said Rick Garcia, senior policy advisor at advocacy group The Civil Rights Agenda. “Chick-fil-A lied to us and lied to the alderman so that they could open their store in Chicago.”

He should not be if this is true it means a lot less trouble for left than the right since they can still fundraise on it and no longer have to worry about retaliation in the vast majority of the country that doesn’t back them.

As Sister Toldja said

I saw this article from Focus on the Family yesterday, and it has chopped up quotes from a new statement ChickfilA apparently released yesterday (which I have not seen in full) in response to their alleged caving. I don’t think this article clears much up at all, but you can decide for yourself:

She’s right, the whole “You can decide for yourself” business mean there is confusion. Now while the idea of a Chicago Pol lying through their teeth would not surprise me all that much it me re-iterate the biblical quote that was at the top of my previous post on the subject:

Let your ‘Yes’ mean ‘Yes,’ and your ‘No’ mean ‘No.’ Anything more is from the evil one. (Matthew 5:37)

This is unfair not only to people like me, but to people on the other side. So lets just ask the yes or no questions to Chick-Fil-A directly:

1. Have you in the past or have you not in the past given money to groups that are fighting to preserve Marriage?

2. If you have, did you or did you not make any promise to any group to no longer support groups fighting to preserve marriage?

3. If you did, have you decided to revoke that promise?

4. If you did not, did you deceive said groups into thinking you made such a promise?

If all of this was a false attempt by the Chicago Alderman to safe face and from Gay Marriage groups to compromise you a different way, no one will be more delighted than me although it means I will have to re-write the words to my updated version of Kipling’s The Dane Geld that I have scheduled to go up tomorrow night.

Either way we need to know, not guess, remember the commandment about false witness? I understand that you don’t want to be in this mess, but you claim an affinity of Christ and as Robert Stacy McCain put it when talking about a different subject:


And if you are worried about the flack, remember the words from all those centuries ago:

“If the world hates you, realize that it hated me first. If you belonged to the world, the world would love its own; but because you do not belong to the world, and I have chosen you out of the world, the world hates you. Remember the word I spoke to you, ‘No slave is greater than his master.’ If they persecuted me, they will also persecute you. If they kept my word, they will also keep yours. And they will do all these things to you on account of my name, because they do not know the one who sent me. If I had not come and spoken to them, they would have no sin; but as it is they have no excuse for their sin. Whoever hates me also hates my Father. John 15:18-23

If you claim Christianity the idea that people will hate you and go after you isn’t a problem to be solved, it’s part of the job description.

Update: Protean wisdom finds more clarity than I did in the statements but makes a fair case here:

Me, I believe the real “compromise” was this: the Alderman secured the right to declare public victory; and in exchange, Chick-fil-A retained its own status quo, and received the licensing to open its franchise. For them, it was a business decision, and its principles remained unchanged. While for the Alderman, it was a PR victory, even though nothing at all changed.

It’s Chicago politics. And its long past due for that place to be evacuated, burned to the ground, the earth beneath salted, and marigold seeds planted atop the ruins.

As for Chick-fil-A, they are under no obligation to make some sort of national public stance and become the retail crucible for culture war battles; having said that, it’s comforting to know that they didn’t compromise, and that — as is the left’s wont — they were forced to declare victory while securing no such thing, then using that declaration to shore up their identity politics bona fides with activists who, like the Alderman, care more about optics than they do about the actual fallout from their policy proposals.

I hope he’s right

Update 3: Paying the Gay-Geld?

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I was at the Benedictine Abby in Harvard (Still River) Ma yesterday covering the Prayers for life event.

This event was the first day of three consisting of a series of talks and prayers for life and for our country.

The main event is Father Peter West who I first met while at CPAC. He talked about this event and Mary Ann Harold of WQPH Fitchburg Catholic Radio gave us a rundown of the events:

Before this interview I attended his speech.

He talked about the events of today as a spiritual battle and the historical significance of Prayer in major events.

“WE are in need of serious prayer with the same furor as the polish people prayed at our lady of Częstochowa.

He stated many don’t understand the full gravity of the current situation and the fate of our country will be hanging on events that will happen very soon.

He cited the following
• 40 yrs of abortion on demand
• Threat to constitutional liberties
• The threat to Marriage
• Catholic institutions forced out of the adoption business
• God pushed out of schools & the public square
• Christians persecuted worldwide while Militant Islam rises

“There is no problem no matter how difficult it is that can’t be resolved by praying the rosary”

When finished he took Questions:

On Civil Disobedience:

And direct vs indirect aid to evil

I actually was not aware of Our Mother of Kibeho

These apparitions in Rwanda from the eighties calling for prayer & fasting in anticipation of the War & Slaughter that would come to that land.

He took questions on the:Media Blackout

And the importance of Fasting along with Prayer:

I recorded the Rosary decade by decade. It is on Youtube now, and will be on the blog this Sunday.

Update: That should of course have said, “Prayers for life” The flyer is here

Here is what people discovered:

  • Scott Brown stands by his good record.
  • Scott Brown’s stands by his awful record
  • Everybody loves the troops
  • Everybody loves women.
  • Scott Brown wants to protect Millionaires & Billionaires
  • Elizabeth Warren wants to turn your wallet into her personal piggy bank.

What you really learned, this style debate is fun and it’s not about the moderator which is good, but it got old really fast.

Good thing for Brown: The “I stand by my record” is appealing.  It’s always good when a person doesn’t duck

Bad thing for Brown: He is a likable person, you didn’t like ether of these folks much by the end.

Good thing for Warren: The stress of her family in the military. It de-elites her which is her biggest weakness

Bad Thing for Warren: If there was ever a week to NOT stress how much you want Barack Obama as the Commander-in-Chief, this was it.

My take:  Tacitly:  This debate was pretty much a wash, I think that helps Warren because of her slight lead. When a great part of your appeal is likability a debate that makes you want to throw rocks at the screen is bad, that could hurt, Scott Brown.


Strategically:  Brown established a big meme last night.  “Elizabeth Warren wants to turn your wallet into her piggy bank” was a memorable line.  If he has planted that meme in the heads of people it can be the basis of attacks for the rest of the campaign.  Additionally Warren took a big risk stressing not just she support for Barack Obama (which helps in MA)  but her support for him as Commander in Chief.

As the details of a successful Terrorist attack on  9/11  continue to come out the “I want to keep Barack Obama” as commander in Chief.” just might come back to haunt her.

Warren people might be happy tonight but if the Brown Campaign is smart (and I think they are) they will hang the repetitive narratives of this debate around Elizabeth Warren’s neck and make her slowly choke her on it.

This could be VERY Interesting

Update: I should have mentioned we also found out that Scott Brown in not an incumbent, because the debate moderator refused to call him “Senator” he was Mr. Brown. In my life I have never seen that. Was there a single debate where Ted Kennedy was not referred to as “Senator”?

What will you give me if I hand him over to you, they gave him 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 26:15)

Let your ‘Yes’ mean ‘Yes,’ and your ‘No’ mean ‘No.’ Anything more is from the evil one. (Matthew 5:37)

Apparently Chick-Fil-A ‘s Christian principles died with Dan CaddyDon Perry

The Christian-rooted fast food restaurant agreed to stop funding groups such as Focus on the Family that oppose same-sex marriage in a meeting with the Chicago politician who had been blocking the company’s move there. Chick-fil-A wrote a letter to Alderman Joe Moreno affirming this, according to his spokesman, Matt Bailey, but the company initially wouldn’t allow his office to release the letter to the public. Three weeks later they relented.

We’ll deal with the Christianity angle at the end of this post for now let’s talk strictly business.

You have built a successful business model based on not only good food but principle, when pressed on the matter not only did national protests against you prove a massive flop, but the counter Chick-Fil-A day was the biggest day in your history. You had a group of hundreds of thousands of people nationwide who went out on a limb despite what the media and the left might say about them to make a statement on your behalf and you not only betray them for the sake of a single location but you attempt to hide your efforts from your loyal customers.

This is called stupid, really stupid! Insulting your customer base is a poor business model in the restaurant business. You are not a monopoly, there are plenty of other choices for the customers you played for fools to support and believe me it will stick in their craw for years.

And really Chick-Fil-A do you think this is going to be the last time someone decided to lean on you now that it’s known you will fold? Allah pundit who supports gay marriage says:

Still depressing to see them cave, though, and I say that as someone who supports gay marriage. Letting this cretin bully them into withholding money from their favorite political causes as a condition of doing business sets a terrible precedent.

And Brandon Darby notes how the left rolls:


Don’t think for a second this isn’t going to be repeated at other locations and thanks to you these guys will happily shake down other business’ too.

Oh and to the left who is now cheering, I wouldn’t cheer too loudly, if it’s established the rules have changed than we on the right are perfectly capable of playing by them, as Allahpundit puts it:

But oh well. Note to red-staters: Feel free to start making zoning permits contingent on local liberal business-owners taking a solemn vow not to give money to the left anymore.

If that’s the game you want there are plenty of officials in red states who will be happy to play it, in fact they might even consider it a religious duty.

Finally Chick-Fil-A , you have given away your identify for a song. You were always known as a Christian Company now no matter what good you do or what you profess you will always be the people who tossed your Christian principles away for one store in Chicago. Are you really so short sighted demographically to understand what throwing that away means in the long term? Or has since the death of the original owners your identity simply a facade that was an excellent marketing device that has run it’s course?

Unless this report is false or you decide to reverse yourself, fast I suggest you go public and sell, if you are going to be just another fast food company let it be run by people who don’t pretend to hold Christian faith & values as its core belief.


Update:  Now we are hearing this isn’t true, or at least not clear. Suggestion, when you want to clarify a potion use clarity. Speaking of clarity I meant to write Don Perry the Chick-Fil-A exec who died during the controversy not Dan Caddy, now corrected

Yesterday I put up a post saying I believed the WBUR poll showing Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren leading over the Herald poll showing Senator Scott Brown ahead, I mentioned in passing anecdotal evidence that supported my data based conclusions but didn’t detail it. If you were wondering what I saw that favors Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren, wonder no more!

1. Visibility:

Two months ago you couldn’t find a house with a sign for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren sign in my driving area with a magnifying glass, today they are everywhere I go and not just on open land but at private houses. Signage doesn’t win elections as Joe Solomito discovered last year but a total lack of signage doesn’t help.

2. The Silent Woman:

Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has shifted her TV ads. Instead of her talking you have other people talking for her. That helps, When she talks you instantly think “Elitist” (unlike say Stacy McCain) Having regular people talk for her instead hides who she is and that’s smart.

3. The Brown Pivot:

Senator Scott Brown’s TV ad have shifted a bit, he was doing great with the TV ads in the truck and with Democrats talking about why they support Brown but three ads in particular don’t help;

a. The “Good Job” ad:

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This is one of the “Truck” ads, for most of the at it works, talking about how he opposed members of congress using inside info for stock deals but the bit with Obama telling him “Good Job” doesn’t play as well as he might think. It is no coincidence that Obama visited the weekend before his election victory in 2010

b. The “I’m pro-choice” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

There are a lot A LOT of people who are in the GOP strictly over Abortion. While they understand that Brown is not with them (and Warren is worse) they don’t need to be reminded on the air.   Even worse the tone of the ads suggest that if you don’t support Abortion you are not for women.  That is an insult to the ladies who fight tirelessly against the murder of unborn life.  Take that first 5 seconds off that ad and it would work. For myself this ads and his appeal to the GOP to drop the abortion plank is why although I’ve voting Brown and will urge others to do so, I can’t put his sign in my yard.

c. The “Elizabeth Warren” is lying ad:

As a rule you don’t put up an ad like this unless you are worried and you certainly don’t appear in that ad yourself. You have a woman voice over the ad or have either your wife or one of your daughters do the TV ad but NOT YOU. A man who complains that a woman is picking on him becomes the butt of jokes for guys and turns off women no matter what any metrosexuals tell you otherwise.

Now the debates will help because it is impossible for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren to not speak for herself there but if you are playing duck dodge and hide it won’t wash. Never forget this rule: Never try to out liberal a liberal it won’t win you a single vote among actual liberals and it just turns off conservatives & independents.

You are an appealing candidate and a pretty good senator, people like you, I like you. Just be yourself and say what you’ve done and what you believe.   Be proactive not reactive and you will win, be reactive and you give your opponent an opening she doesn’t deserve.

As everyone knows I’ve been hitting the polls lately for their simply outrageous attempts to create a false narrative by playing games with Demographic results.

In the last 48 hours two polls have come out concerning the Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts with diametrically different results, one by the liberal leaning WBUR a public radio Station out of Boston and once by the Boston Herald the right leaning Newspaper of the city.

WBUR puts Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren up by 5, The Herald puts Senator Scott Brown up by 6. That is fully a 11 point different in two polls released a day apart. Obviously they BOTH can’t be reflective of the State as a whole so lets look at them one at a time:

WBUR: This is a real difference from the last poll I looked at that showed a dead heat so when this poll came out I was ready for the worst and went straight for the party splits.

The Good news is finally FINALLY I’m seeing a poll where the splits match the demographics of the state.  The unweighed poll numbers were as follows:

Total 507 voters

Democrats polled 185 37%
GOP  60 12%
Unenrolled or other 262 51%

That’s a D+25 split which if this was a national poll would be a complete joke (and not quite unexpected considering the Whoppers we’ve seen lately) but in Massachusetts a state with under 5 GOP members in it’s senate and where getting to 25% representation in the House was an ACHIEVEMENT that’s not a joke, that’s the reality It matches up with the population based on the official state numbers from earlier this year.

WBUR’s poll gets Warren up 5 by the following results:

Sen Scott Brown:

With Unenrolleds (Independents):   51% electorate Brown up 49-35 (ind) Brown gets 24.99 vote

With the GOP:   12% electorate Brown up 85-9 (r)  10.2 vote

With Democrats:  37% electorate Warren up 71-15 (D) 5.55 vote

That adds up to 40.5 % of the vote for Scott Brown

On the other end Former Obama Administration Official Warren breakdown adds up to 17.85 (Ind) + 1.08 (GOP) + 26.27 (DEM)

That adds up to 45.2%

These numbers match the polling and demographics so I find this poll:   Credible


Boston Herald:

Now lets look at the Herald poll that has Brown up by 6 numbers

This poll shows Sen Brown up Buy 6 points among registered voters & 4 points among likely voters. It’s the first poll I’ve ever seen showing a Republican doing WORSE among likely voters than registered ones.

Sen Scott Brown takes:   93% of GOP & Leaners 58% of Independents & 20% of Democrats.
Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren takes:   7% of Republicans & Leaners, 35% of Independents & 73% of Democrats

The results are dramatically different vs the WBUR poll Brown’s share of the GOP vote is 8pts higher Warren’s 2 pts lower, With independents Brown is +9 in the Herald with Warren flat & with Dems Brown’s Share jumps +5 pts while Warren’s is +2

That accounts for part of the difference but lets look at the all important demographic split

lets focus on that highlighted area

This represents a split of +17 Dems without leaners and +20 with people who lean one way or the other. This however doesn’t match the latest demographics of the state. While the GOP figure is about right the Democrat figure is of 28% among likely voters is a full 9 points lower than it should be.

The Herald poll indicates Sen Brown winning one in five democrats so that under-sampling has a lesser effect but even so under-sampling by 9 points?   It just won’t do. If you adjust based on that under-sampling that Turns the Sen Brown 4-6 pt lead into a Warren 1-3 pt lead.

Thus I must dub the Herald poll:  Not Credible

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one. Moreover several anecdotal bits of evidence have cropped up lately that suggest Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has improved her standing which makes the WBUR poll more believable to me (more on that tomorrow).

But “DaTechGuy” you Might say, “You’re a Republican, you want Brown to win.  It’s your duty to back up the poll to help swing the momentum.”

That may be the MSM way but I say balderdash! The way to win a campaign is to look at it honestly and base your actions accordingly.  If I am winning I want to know it so I can keep exploiting my success, if I’m not I want to know it so I can correct any problems or mistakes.

Self delusion is no way to win an election, a lesson the MSM will learn nationally in November.

Update:  Sharp eyed readers will notice the original name for this post was “WBUR shows how it’s done”.  I started writing it yesterday but crashed on the couch exhausted before I finished it.  When I woke up at 2:30 AM the Herald poll was out and decided to shift the focus to a comparison and simply forgot to rename the internal title.

Update 2:  Today new fox poll that is supposedly “devastating” to the Romney Campaign Parisian splits Ohio D +6  Virginia D +5 Florida D +5 Ho Hum, more of the same.

Update 3:  it is spelled Pew but perhaps it should be spelled PU.  Pew reports Obama +8 Sample D +9 the biggest joke of the poll is this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86.  if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008.  Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

One of the advertisers on my Radio show is the American Products Store. It’s a small place that sell products made in the USA, they have a Crafts event coming up this Saturday (Sept 22nd) and two in October the 6th & 20th.

If you want a chance to support American Manufacturing here it is, you can find their website here.

Major Heyward: Well that’s the devil you know, what about the devil you don’t know but think you do?

Hawkeye: I’ve known Chingachgook since we both were young. I knew Uncas’ mother. I’ve known Uncas since he was born. Major Heyward. I don’t know you. If we have to fight back to back, it’s possible that you might run. I don’t think you will, but you might. I’ve fought back to back with these Mohicans father and son, and they didn’t run

Last of the Mohicans BBC production 1971

If there is one thing in life that I have been blessed with its been an ability to make friends and keep them.  I have met a plethora of people who have treated me very well and have come through for me when the chips are down.

One of these people is Robert Stacy McCain.

I’ve eaten with him, traveled with him, reported with him, he has slept in my house I have slept in his, we have shared long road trips, tight situations and the only car chase I’ve ever been involved in.

He was the first man to wear one of my fedoras, it was he who got me on the Tea Party Express bus, it was he who helped me raise the money for my first CPAC and it is he who has been at my side.

I would trust him with my life, and the lives of my family and that is something a Sicilian does not say lightly

Stacy McCain is also fiercely loyal to his friends, and because of his unbending loyalty to one of them who has stood by his side he has gotten some grief.

Stacy is a grown man who can fight his own battles I’ve stayed out of it, but now the question has been called before me and I can not in honor stay silent.

Stacy, described as an “Elitist”? I’m sorry that’s funny.

There are many adjectives that people might use to describe Stacy, when behind the wheel said adjectives might become increasingly colorful but elitist, “Elitist?” Really?

Now I like Jerry from Goldfish and Clowns he’s been on the show and we’ve talked a bit, I’ve met Larry Sinclar and we’ve had a few pleasant conversations on the phone. I’ve spoken on the phone to Paul Lemmen, I fully intend after the election to book him to promote his book and he has graciously offered to try to promote the radio show. I don’t intend to discard any of these people nor does anything I’ve said or will say imply their inquiries on certain subjects are not legit, I’ve posed some of those same questions myself. The net is a big place if people want to make their cases to the masses they have the perfect right to do so and if they can sell said case, fine, that’s how it works. May the best argument win.

But in a fight with Stacy McCain there is only one side I can take, in fact how dishonorable, how unworthy would I be if during the week where I had my most positive national exposure EVAH I turned my back on my closest friend on the net in his hour of need?

Stacy is the best reporter I’ve ever met, period! He had done the best shoe leather reporting I’ve ever seen, period! He has done the most when it comes to raw footwork to advance conservationism that I’ve seen, period!

But most important Robert Stacy McCain is my friend. He is my friend now and will be till the day I die and I will stand by his side PERIOD!

That is all.