InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot

by Datechguy | September 3rd, 2012

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InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot

This Morn­ing Glenn Reynolds in a post about trends noted the fol­low­ing:

InTrade still has Obama ahead, but I’m not sure why infor­ma­tion like this doesn’t have a big­ger impact.

That’s a good point but some­thing hit me.

Let’s say I’m a per­son who wants to influ­ence the nar­ra­tive but can’t con­tribute legally or has already reached the legal limit, how can I make a dif­fer­ence financially?

InTrade is an easy choice.

Let’s take a look at InTrade today in terms of the president’s re-​election:

Let’s do the math, $5.69 a share 223 shares $5.79223 = $1291.71

So it would cost $1291.71 to buy up every share at the low­est price available.

To put this in per­spec­tive Sarah Jes­sica Parker put on a $40,000 per plate fundraiser for the pres­i­dent in June. All those shares can be pur­chased by 3.2% of a sin­gle plate:

[cap­tion id=“attachment_39990” align=“aligncenter” width=“450”] This is one $40,000 Sarah Jes­sica Parker fundrais­ing plate[/caption]

That’s how much it would cost to move Intrade for a day. less than a car­rot on a fundrais­ing plate.

But DaT­e­chGuy” you say, “Why would peo­ple just throw money away on InTrade when they can use it else­where in the campaign?”

Au con­traire, first of all. it’s no more throw­ing away money than any other polit­i­cal cam­paign dona­tion and sec­ondly if they man­age to pull off the win, then not only will the reward be the same as any other polit­i­cal con­tri­bu­tion, but you might even get a direct cash return that might not oth­er­wise be possible.

If I was the Obama Cam­paign I’d make sure those InTrade futures didn’t drop below 50% till the very end of the elec­tion, it’s short money for a vital talk­ing point par­tic­u­larly when soon it will be the only mea­sure that can be manip­u­lated in her favor.

This Morning Glenn Reynolds in a post about trends noted the following:

InTrade still has Obama ahead, but I’m not sure why information like this doesn’t have a bigger impact.

That’s a good point but something hit me.

Let’s say I’m a person who wants to influence the narrative but can’t contribute legally or has already reached the legal limit, how can I make a difference financially?

InTrade is an easy choice.

Let’s take a look at InTrade today in terms of the president’s re-election:

Let’s do the math, $5.69 a share 223 shares $5.79 x 223 = $1291.71

So it would cost $1291.71 to buy up every share at the lowest price available.

To put this in perspective Sarah Jessica Parker put on a $40,000 per plate fundraiser for the president in June. All those shares can be purchased by 3.2% of a single plate:

This is one $40,000 Sarah Jessica Parker fundraising plate

That’s how much it would cost to move Intrade for a day. less than a carrot on a fundraising plate.

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “Why would people just throw money away on InTrade when they can use it elsewhere in the campaign?”

Au contraire, first of all. it’s no more throwing away money than any other political campaign donation and secondly if they manage to pull off the win, then not only will the reward be the same as any other political contribution, but you might even get a direct cash return that might not otherwise be possible.

If I was the Obama Campaign I’d make sure those InTrade futures didn’t drop below 50% till the very end of the election, it’s short money for a vital talking point particularly when soon it will be the only measure that can be manipulated in her favor.

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