I understand that an Iman has put a death sentence for any person who makes a film insulting Islam. Well let me be the first to offer an entry in his contest.

I am an American, too many people have died for the sake of my first Amendment Rights for me to abandon them over a threat. If I did I would be unworthy of them.

This American of Sicilian Ancestry will not submit and I invite any other American to submit to join me in this. Yes you are risking your life, but our troops are doing so every day to secure us our rights, the least we can do is back them up.

Update: I fell asleep on my couch around 11 dead tired, I woke up at 4:30 to discover my video was suddenly private.

I’m positive I didn’t set it that way, I don’t know if Youtube did that or if my son worried I’m gonna get myself killed did it but it ain’t private anymore.

As a great sailor one said “Cringing to these fellows will never do.”

Update 2Talk about working in mysterious ways, Got an e-mail from Jim asking for the link to the private video after subscribing, I e-mailed back offering a refund saying this video wasn’t private but that’s bloody brilliant! What if I produce two or three special video commentaries a week for subscribers only? That would generate revenue and be a value added for people who subscribe?

Obviously this once can’t be private as it defeats the entire purpose of the point I was making but I think I might give this a shot starting later this week

It’s bloody brilliant! Jim thanks for the idea and whoever set that video to private on me thanks a lot for the idea.

Something occurred to me on Sunday that I have not seen mentioned.

It is axiomatic that a video so poorly viewed is not the cause of the events of the Middle East since 9/11 the question becomes. If that is the case, then there has to be another reason.

It is true of course that our Islamic foes don’t need an excuse to attack but one other puzzle is this. The foreign policy of Barack Obama has led to advances for our foes why on earth would they try an event that might affect his re-elections chances & four more years of the same.

The answer unlike “The Innocence of Muslims” may have over 500,000 views.

During the Democrat convention the Arab Left won a notable victory. On Tuesday the Democrat Party adopted a platform that removed Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Now as a person who disagrees with this, I was one of many on the right who pointed this out, we objected and hit the Obama administration over this change, but there is one critique that was present in none of our objections.

Nobody claimed that the decision made was not the legitimate will of the delegates.

For example, I’m an opponent of Gay Marriage, but when it passed in NY it was by a vote of the legislators. I objected strongly but these were the people’s representatives and the people have the right to be wrong.

There are Millions of Americans who do not support Israel, millions of the Muslim Arab Americans in particular. Regardless of how right or wrong we think they are as citizens they have the right to vote and contribute money to candidates and causes who agree with this premise. Even non citizens have a perfect right to make their opinions known and attempt to change minds in every legal way allowed.

Imagine if you are such an Arab American, you live here, you have no ties to terror, you arbor violence but you passionately believe the policy on Israel is wrong. As an American you fight to advance that opinion to the point where you rise to the level of a delegate at the convention of a major political party.

On Tuesday you win the platform vote and you are glowing, all that hard work, all that argument, time and expense has paid off. Yes platforms are the least read documents in history but it is the first step you have hope! Your voice counted! You played by the rules and YOU WON!

You go on-line to facebook and twitter you tell your friend and your cousins about what happens, you tell them “See you guys don’t get it back in the old country. You think America is owned by the Jews & infidels but look here I am, an Arab American who got involved and I won, and not a drop of blood had to be spilled and nobody had to get hurt.”

Then 24 hours later it all changes at the order of the party heads all you worked for is taken away. The platform is reversed and not only is it reversed but it is reversed by a dishonest method where your vote is specifically ignored on national TV. CNN’s camera’s focus on a person wearing an “Arab American Democrat” t-shirt so not only is the humiliation public, but it is specifically directed at Arabs.

And to put the icing on the cake the media insists that the change was by direct order of Barack Obama, the man who had supposedly been the best friend your position ever had.

What do you think the reaction might be at home to this? What might happen the next day when online you are informed “I told you so.” What if the hope for change becomes no hope at all?

Now imagine you are the Muslim Brotherhood, you consider Obama a “useful idiot” and you see all this unfold. You’ve told your followers to tread carefully to protect the useful idiot in the white house. What happens if you decide that the useful idiot is not useful anymore?

What might you do to remind that leader who betrayed you, who made you lose face before your followers that such betrayal comes with a price? Might it be a demonstration of your power, and his weakness?

Again this complete speculation, but given Arab culture, this would not surprise me one bit.

Of course it could be as Glenn Reynolds suggests all the by Obama bragging about scoring four touchdowns in one game killing Bin Laden.

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:

 

Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting

 

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?

 

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.

Update 8:  My disdain for skewed polls is not limited to polls shifted to favor candidates I oppose.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated