Demoralized as Hell, The poll the media isn’t talking about edition

by Datechguy | September 17th, 2012

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Demoralized as Hell, The poll the media isn't talking about edition

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the nar­ra­tive that Barack Obama is surg­ing at the polls, Mitt Rom­ney is in trou­ble and unless there is a mas­sive change in direc­tion it is all over.

Sim­ply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has got­ten no atten­tion, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spot­ted and pro­moted on his site. It is the Ras­mussen Poll of party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion.

They have party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion results online dat­ing back to 2004. Here are the 2012 num­bers through August

That shows a GOP advan­tage in reg­is­tra­tion this year but you might say: “Hey, Dat­e­chguy, you’ve been hit­ting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good ques­tion, we can answer it by ask­ing another ques­tion: Does this poll of party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion cor­re­spond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-​election

The clos­est the Repub­li­cans come to democ­rats in reg­is­tra­tion is Sept at a .6 in Sep­tem­ber. On elec­tion day Democ­rats had a reg­is­tra­tion advan­tage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-​election with that dis­ad­van­tage but the GOP took 3 sen­ate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In Jan­u­ary the GOP was the clos­est they would be .6 off but by Novem­ber the Mark Foley scan­dal was still big news and on elec­tion day Democ­rats had a spread of 6.1 points. This car­ried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The com­ing of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The clos­est split was 5.6 in Jan­u­ary & in Sep­tem­ber after the Palin Pick but by elec­tion day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had iden­ti­fi­ca­tion over 40%. The Democ­rats kept that num­ber over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reach­ing a high of 41.7% the largest num­ber in this 9 year sam­ple for either party. With these fig­ures it’s should be no sur­prise that Barack Obama win but Democ­rats picked up 8 seats in the Sen­ate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved con­clu­sively that tim­ing is every­thing for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advan­tage in poll reg­is­tra­tion from –2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Addi­tion­ally the 37.0 fig­ure for the GOP was the high­est for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 fig­ure in Decem­ber was the low­est fig­ure for democ­rats EVER.

Cor­re­spond­ingly the GOP gained 6 Sen­ate seats (not count­ing the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democ­rats picked up in 2006 & 2008 com­bined.

These results since 2004 seem to indi­cate the poll is reli­able. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the pres­i­dent and it’s the most inter­est­ing year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times dur­ing the year as the coun­try tries to fig­ure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democ­rats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time dur­ing the year do the Democ­rats have a reg­is­tra­tion advan­tage vs repub­li­cans, the gap closes in July & re-​separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democ­rats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for Novem­ber? It means a lot.

The Democ­rats won 2 elec­tion in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advan­tage in 2006 &7.6 advan­tage in 2008.

There is no exam­ple of the Democ­rats win­ning since 2004 with an advan­tage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elec­tions in this period 2004 with a –1.6 dis­ad­van­tage & 2010 with a 1.3 advan­tage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual dis­ad­van­tage. Addi­tion­ally with an advan­tage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these num­ber change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-​Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-​Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democ­rats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the econ­omy in the tank, and the new trou­ble in the Mid­dle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democ­rats hap­pen­ing again right now? More­over even if that record reg­is­tra­tion swing repeated itself right now this would give democ­rats an advan­tage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve cov­ered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a sin­gle one of those polls had a sam­ple with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advan­tage but the clos­est we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every sin­gle poll show­ing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sam­ple is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in his­tory takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the fig­ures I’ve cited are from a source pub­licly avail­able. The Media know these fig­ures, the left knows these fig­ures and the Net­works know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge demo­c­rat sam­ples and rep­re­sent­ing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demor­al­ized as hell”!

The elec­tion of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever per­pet­u­ated on the US Pub­lic, the polls the media is report­ing these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweet­ing this out and had this tweet from a left­ist named Mr. D who made this incred­i­ble assertion:

Being not only fair-​minded but also sane and ratio­nal I asked for some data, the exchange was.…interesting

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as prov­ing the sky is blue so who needs data?

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can pro­duce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great exam­ple of my point in the PPP Vir­gina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50 – 45. Poll Sam­ple +3 Dem

Actual reg­is­tra­tion split in Vir­ginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these fig­ures are an argu­ment to be com­pla­cent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The reg­is­tra­tion trends are in our favor but apa­thy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Insta­lanche Thanks Glenn & Pow­er­line picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hill­buzz, Ace, Neo­neo­con, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipun­dit, Evil Blog­ger Lady and I’m told men­tioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, wel­come to all the new read­ers and check out the site, the radio show (lat­est episode avail­able by click­ing on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been argu­ing all the objec­tive data shows the Democ­rats are not only los­ing but “Demor­al­ized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demor­al­ized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short ver­sion here.

Update 8: My dis­dain for skewed polls is not lim­ited to polls shifted to favor can­di­dates I oppose.

Update bot­tom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morn­ing Joe peo­ple to put out this stuff, my stuff is only pos­si­ble because of you, any help is appreciated




For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:

 

Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting

 

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?

 

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.

Update 8:  My disdain for skewed polls is not limited to polls shifted to favor candidates I oppose.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated




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