Demoralized as Hell, The poll the media isn't talking about edition

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the nar­ra­tive that Barack Obama is surg­ing at the polls, Mitt Rom­ney is in trou­ble and unless there is a mas­sive change in direc­tion it is all over.

Sim­ply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has got­ten no atten­tion, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spot­ted and pro­moted on his site. It is the Ras­mussen Poll of party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion.

They have party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion results online dat­ing back to 2004. Here are the 2012 num­bers through August

That shows a GOP advan­tage in reg­is­tra­tion this year but you might say: “Hey, Dat­e­chguy, you’ve been hit­ting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good ques­tion, we can answer it by ask­ing another ques­tion: Does this poll of party iden­ti­fi­ca­tion cor­re­spond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-​election

The clos­est the Repub­li­cans come to democ­rats in reg­is­tra­tion is Sept at a .6 in Sep­tem­ber. On elec­tion day Democ­rats had a reg­is­tra­tion advan­tage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-​election with that dis­ad­van­tage but the GOP took 3 sen­ate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In Jan­u­ary the GOP was the clos­est they would be .6 off but by Novem­ber the Mark Foley scan­dal was still big news and on elec­tion day Democ­rats had a spread of 6.1 points. This car­ried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The com­ing of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The clos­est split was 5.6 in Jan­u­ary & in Sep­tem­ber after the Palin Pick but by elec­tion day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had iden­ti­fi­ca­tion over 40%. The Democ­rats kept that num­ber over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reach­ing a high of 41.7% the largest num­ber in this 9 year sam­ple for either party. With these fig­ures it’s should be no sur­prise that Barack Obama win but Democ­rats picked up 8 seats in the Sen­ate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved con­clu­sively that tim­ing is every­thing for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advan­tage in poll reg­is­tra­tion from –2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Addi­tion­ally the 37.0 fig­ure for the GOP was the high­est for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 fig­ure in Decem­ber was the low­est fig­ure for democ­rats EVER.

Cor­re­spond­ingly the GOP gained 6 Sen­ate seats (not count­ing the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democ­rats picked up in 2006 & 2008 com­bined.

These results since 2004 seem to indi­cate the poll is reli­able. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the pres­i­dent and it’s the most inter­est­ing year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times dur­ing the year as the coun­try tries to fig­ure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democ­rats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time dur­ing the year do the Democ­rats have a reg­is­tra­tion advan­tage vs repub­li­cans, the gap closes in July & re-​separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democ­rats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for Novem­ber? It means a lot.

The Democ­rats won 2 elec­tion in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advan­tage in 2006 & a 7.6 advan­tage in 2008.

There is no exam­ple of the Democ­rats win­ning since 2004 with an advan­tage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elec­tions in this period 2004 with a –1.6 dis­ad­van­tage & 2010 with a 1.3 advan­tage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual dis­ad­van­tage. Addi­tion­ally with an advan­tage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these num­ber change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-​Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-​Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democ­rats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the econ­omy in the tank, and the new trou­ble in the Mid­dle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democ­rats hap­pen­ing again right now? More­over even if that record reg­is­tra­tion swing repeated itself right now this would give democ­rats an advan­tage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve cov­ered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a sin­gle one of those polls had a sam­ple with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advan­tage but the clos­est we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every sin­gle poll show­ing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sam­ple is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in his­tory takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the fig­ures I’ve cited are from a source pub­licly avail­able. The Media know these fig­ures, the left knows these fig­ures and the Net­works know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge demo­c­rat sam­ples and rep­re­sent­ing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demor­al­ized as hell”!

The elec­tion of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever per­pet­u­ated on the US Pub­lic, the polls the media is report­ing these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweet­ing this out and had this tweet from a left­ist named Mr. D who made this incred­i­ble assertion:

@dat­e­chguy­blog I love it..most polls skew con­ser­v­a­tive but to hear GOP big­ots cry over polls is hilar­i­ous. #tcot #Wow

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) Sep­tem­ber 17, 2012

Being not only fair-​minded but also sane and ratio­nal I asked for some data, the exchange was.…interesting

@dat­e­chguy­blog Prov­ing the sky is blue, to a bigot, isn’t worth a cold fart in hell. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) Sep­tem­ber 17, 2012

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as prov­ing the sky is blue so who needs data?

@dat­e­chguy­blog I’ve said it. The end. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) Sep­tem­ber 17, 2012

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can pro­duce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great exam­ple of my point in the PPP Vir­gina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50 – 45. Poll Sam­ple +3 Dem

Actual reg­is­tra­tion split in Vir­ginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these fig­ures are an argu­ment to be com­pla­cent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The reg­is­tra­tion trends are in our favor but apa­thy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Insta­lanche Thanks Glenn & Pow­er­line picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hill­buzz, Ace, Neo­neo­con, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipun­dit, Evil Blog­ger Lady and I’m told men­tioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, wel­come to all the new read­ers and check out the site, the radio show (lat­est episode avail­able by click­ing on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been argu­ing all the objec­tive data shows the Democ­rats are not only los­ing but “Demor­al­ized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demor­al­ized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short ver­sion here.

Update 8: My dis­dain for skewed polls is not lim­ited to polls shifted to favor can­di­dates I oppose.

Update bot­tom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morn­ing Joe peo­ple to put out this stuff, my stuff is only pos­si­ble because of you, any help is appreciated