NBC/WSJ The Washington Post & the New Poll Math

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NBC/WSJ The Washington Post & the New Poll Math

Ger­man Pro­pa­ganda Offi­cer: It’s the same dull stuff we’ve been doing. I wish we had some­thing dif­fer­ent, some kind of surprise

Leslie Smythe Bedows: What if we told the the truth about the East­ern Front?

Ger­man Pro­pa­ganda Offi­cer: I said sur­prise not shock.

Hogan’s Heroes “Who Stole my Copy of Mein Kampf?” 1969

There are two new polls the MSM is crow­ing about tonight. Well when I say “new” I’m cer­tainly not talk­ing about the method­ol­ogy. Looks like the same old thing to me. Lets start with the NBC WSJ poll:

In the pres­i­den­tial horse race, Obama and Vice Pres­i­dent Joe Biden get the sup­port of 50 per­cent of likely vot­ers, while Rom­ney and run­ning mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.

As you might guess the demo­graph­ics of this poll just hap­pens to be +5 Dem even though as I’ve already men­tioned Democ­rats have trailed in reg­is­tra­tion the entire year with an avg deficit of 2.5 pts.

Such a national sam­ple trans­forms a 5045 Obama lead into a 5243 Rom­ney lead but when you look at the poll results it actu­ally worse than it looks

Let’s look at how the peo­ple who answered voted in 2008

Ok 10% say they didn’t vote so to fig­ure out the per­cent­age these num­bers rep­re­sent we divide the fig­ures by 90 remov­ing the vot­ers who didn’t vote and viola

Barack Obama 4590 = 50%
John McCain 3790 = 41%
Some­one Else 490 = 4%
Not Sure 490 = 4%

Vs Actual Results
Barack Obama 52.9
McCain 45.7
Other 1.4

OK assum­ing these peo­ple are NOT lying not only do they over­sam­ple inde­pen­dents by 6.6 points (I sug­gest there are a lot of Obama vot­ers hid­ing there but I have no proof) but based on 2008 fig­ures Obama is under­sam­pled by 2.9 points while McCain is under­sam­pled by 4.7.

Does any­one seri­ously think the GOP vot­ing sam­ple has dropped 4.7 points from 2008 lev­els. Is any­one ANY­ONE will­ing to make that case?

— — — — — — — -
In Vir­gina the Wash­ing­ton Post man­ages to get even worse

With just seven weeks of cam­paign­ing left before the Novem­ber elec­tion, Pres­i­dent Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Rom­ney in Vir­ginia, buoyed by grow­ing opti­mism about the state of the coun­try and fueled by a big gen­der gap work­ing in his favor, accord­ing to a new Wash­ing­ton Post poll.

Obama leads his Repub­li­can rival 52 per­cent to 44 per­cent among likely vot­ers. Among all reg­is­tered vot­ers, the pres­i­dent leads 50 per­cent to 43 per­cent, a mar­gin iden­ti­cal to that recorded in a sur­vey in early May. That indi­cates that Rom­ney has made up lit­tle ground dur­ing four months of intense adver­tis­ing and cam­paign visits.

Wow an 8 point lead, Rom­ney doesn’t have a chance…until you look at the par­tisian split:

A +8 Dem split in a +3 GOP state would seem­ingly turn a 8 pt dem lead into a 3 pt GOP advan­tage but believe it or not again it’s worse than it looks.

The party split in VA is 3936 in favor of the GOP so that means that while this poll under­sam­ples dems by 4 points (11%) They under sam­ple repub­li­cans by 15 points a full 38% percent

There are a lot of words you can use to describe this kind of poll but if you have an hon­est bone in your body “News” isn’t one of them.

German Propaganda Officer: It’s the same dull stuff we’ve been doing. I wish we had something different, some kind of surprise

Leslie Smythe Bedows: What if we told the the truth about the Eastern Front?

German Propaganda Officer: I said surprise not shock.

Hogan’s Heroes “Who Stole my Copy of Mein Kampf?” 1969

There are two new polls the MSM is crowing about tonight.  Well when I say “new” I’m certainly not talking about the methodology.  Looks like the same old thing to me.  Lets start with the NBC WSJ poll:

In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.

As you might guess the demographics of this poll just happens to be +5 Dem even though as I’ve already mentioned Democrats have trailed in registration the entire year with an avg deficit of 2.5 pts.

Such a national sample transforms a 50-45 Obama lead into a 52-43 Romney lead but when you look at the poll results it actually worse than it looks

Let’s look at how the people who answered voted in 2008

Ok 10% say they didn’t vote so to figure out the percentage these numbers represent we divide the figures by 90 removing the voters who didn’t vote and viola

Barack Obama 45/90 = 50%
John McCain 37/90 = 41%
Someone Else 4/90 = 4%
Not Sure 4/90 = 4%

Vs Actual Results
Barack Obama 52.9
McCain 45.7
Other 1.4

OK assuming these people are NOT lying not only do they oversample independents by 6.6 points (I suggest there are a lot of Obama voters hiding there but I have no proof) but based on 2008 figures Obama is undersampled by 2.9 points while McCain is undersampled by 4.7.

Does anyone seriously think the GOP voting sample has dropped 4.7 points from 2008 levels.  Is anyone ANYONE willing to make that case?

———————-
In Virgina the Washington Post manages to get even worse

With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Obama leads his Republican rival 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Among all registered voters, the president leads 50 percent to 43 percent, a margin identical to that recorded in a survey in early May. That indicates that Romney has made up little ground during four months of intense advertising and campaign visits.

Wow an 8 point lead, Romney doesn’t have a chance…until you look at the partisian split:

A +8 Dem split in a +3 GOP state would seemingly turn a 8 pt dem lead into a 3 pt GOP advantage but believe it or not again it’s worse than it looks.

The party split in VA is 39-36 in favor of the GOP so that means that while this poll undersamples dems by 4 points (11%) They under sample republicans by 15 points a full 38% percent

There are a lot of words you can use to describe this kind of poll but if you have an honest bone in your body “News” isn’t one of them.