German Propaganda Officer: It’s the same dull stuff we’ve been doing. I wish we had something different, some kind of surprise
Leslie Smythe Bedows: What if we told the the truth about the Eastern Front?
German Propaganda Officer: I said surprise not shock.
Hogan’s Heroes “Who Stole my Copy of Mein Kampf?” 1969
There are two new polls the MSM is crowing about tonight. Well when I say “new” I’m certainly not talking about the methodology. Looks like the same old thing to me. Lets start with the NBC WSJ poll:
In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.
As you might guess the demographics of this poll just happens to be +5 Dem even though as I’ve already mentioned Democrats have trailed in registration the entire year with an avg deficit of 2.5 pts.
Such a national sample transforms a 50-45 Obama lead into a 52-43 Romney lead but when you look at the poll results it actually worse than it looks …
Let’s look at how the people who answered voted in 2008
Ok 10% say they didn’t vote so to figure out the percentage these numbers represent we divide the figures by 90 removing the voters who didn’t vote and viola
Barack Obama 45/90 = 50%
John McCain 37/90 = 41%
Someone Else 4/90 = 4%
Not Sure 4/90 = 4%
Vs Actual Results
Barack Obama 52.9
OK assuming these people are NOT lying not only do they oversample independents by 6.6 points (I suggest there are a lot of Obama voters hiding there but I have no proof) but based on 2008 figures Obama is undersampled by 2.9 points while McCain is undersampled by 4.7.
Does anyone seriously think the GOP voting sample has dropped 4.7 points from 2008 levels. Is anyone ANYONE willing to make that case?
In Virgina the Washington Post manages to get even worse
With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Obama leads his Republican rival 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Among all registered voters, the president leads 50 percent to 43 percent, a margin identical to that recorded in a survey in early May. That indicates that Romney has made up little ground during four months of intense advertising and campaign visits.
Wow an 8 point lead, Romney doesn’t have a chance…until you look at the partisian split:
A +8 Dem split in a +3 GOP state would seemingly turn a 8 pt dem lead into a 3 pt GOP advantage but believe it or not again it’s worse than it looks.
The party split in VA is 39-36 in favor of the GOP so that means that while this poll undersamples dems by 4 points (11%) They under sample republicans by 15 points a full 38% percent
There are a lot of words you can use to describe this kind of poll but if you have an honest bone in your body “News” isn’t one of them.