What will you give me if I hand him over to you, they gave him 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 26:15)

Let your ‘Yes’ mean ‘Yes,’ and your ‘No’ mean ‘No.’ Anything more is from the evil one. (Matthew 5:37)

Apparently Chick-Fil-A ‘s Christian principles died with Dan CaddyDon Perry

The Christian-rooted fast food restaurant agreed to stop funding groups such as Focus on the Family that oppose same-sex marriage in a meeting with the Chicago politician who had been blocking the company’s move there. Chick-fil-A wrote a letter to Alderman Joe Moreno affirming this, according to his spokesman, Matt Bailey, but the company initially wouldn’t allow his office to release the letter to the public. Three weeks later they relented.

We’ll deal with the Christianity angle at the end of this post for now let’s talk strictly business.

You have built a successful business model based on not only good food but principle, when pressed on the matter not only did national protests against you prove a massive flop, but the counter Chick-Fil-A day was the biggest day in your history. You had a group of hundreds of thousands of people nationwide who went out on a limb despite what the media and the left might say about them to make a statement on your behalf and you not only betray them for the sake of a single location but you attempt to hide your efforts from your loyal customers.

This is called stupid, really stupid! Insulting your customer base is a poor business model in the restaurant business. You are not a monopoly, there are plenty of other choices for the customers you played for fools to support and believe me it will stick in their craw for years.

And really Chick-Fil-A do you think this is going to be the last time someone decided to lean on you now that it’s known you will fold? Allah pundit who supports gay marriage says:

Still depressing to see them cave, though, and I say that as someone who supports gay marriage. Letting this cretin bully them into withholding money from their favorite political causes as a condition of doing business sets a terrible precedent.

And Brandon Darby notes how the left rolls:

 

Don’t think for a second this isn’t going to be repeated at other locations and thanks to you these guys will happily shake down other business’ too.

Oh and to the left who is now cheering, I wouldn’t cheer too loudly, if it’s established the rules have changed than we on the right are perfectly capable of playing by them, as Allahpundit puts it:

But oh well. Note to red-staters: Feel free to start making zoning permits contingent on local liberal business-owners taking a solemn vow not to give money to the left anymore.

If that’s the game you want there are plenty of officials in red states who will be happy to play it, in fact they might even consider it a religious duty.

Finally Chick-Fil-A , you have given away your identify for a song. You were always known as a Christian Company now no matter what good you do or what you profess you will always be the people who tossed your Christian principles away for one store in Chicago. Are you really so short sighted demographically to understand what throwing that away means in the long term? Or has since the death of the original owners your identity simply a facade that was an excellent marketing device that has run it’s course?

Unless this report is false or you decide to reverse yourself, fast I suggest you go public and sell, if you are going to be just another fast food company let it be run by people who don’t pretend to hold Christian faith & values as its core belief.

 

Update:  Now we are hearing this isn’t true, or at least not clear. Suggestion, when you want to clarify a potion use clarity. Speaking of clarity I meant to write Don Perry the Chick-Fil-A exec who died during the controversy not Dan Caddy, now corrected

Yesterday I put up a post saying I believed the WBUR poll showing Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren leading over the Herald poll showing Senator Scott Brown ahead, I mentioned in passing anecdotal evidence that supported my data based conclusions but didn’t detail it. If you were wondering what I saw that favors Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren, wonder no more!

1. Visibility:

Two months ago you couldn’t find a house with a sign for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren sign in my driving area with a magnifying glass, today they are everywhere I go and not just on open land but at private houses. Signage doesn’t win elections as Joe Solomito discovered last year but a total lack of signage doesn’t help.

2. The Silent Woman:

Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has shifted her TV ads. Instead of her talking you have other people talking for her. That helps, When she talks you instantly think “Elitist” (unlike say Stacy McCain) Having regular people talk for her instead hides who she is and that’s smart.

3. The Brown Pivot:

Senator Scott Brown’s TV ad have shifted a bit, he was doing great with the TV ads in the truck and with Democrats talking about why they support Brown but three ads in particular don’t help;

a. The “Good Job” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/2dlDrSVrIio” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

This is one of the “Truck” ads, for most of the at it works, talking about how he opposed members of congress using inside info for stock deals but the bit with Obama telling him “Good Job” doesn’t play as well as he might think. It is no coincidence that Obama visited the weekend before his election victory in 2010

b. The “I’m pro-choice” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/5kUdnLx5n5Y” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

There are a lot A LOT of people who are in the GOP strictly over Abortion. While they understand that Brown is not with them (and Warren is worse) they don’t need to be reminded on the air.   Even worse the tone of the ads suggest that if you don’t support Abortion you are not for women.  That is an insult to the ladies who fight tirelessly against the murder of unborn life.  Take that first 5 seconds off that ad and it would work. For myself this ads and his appeal to the GOP to drop the abortion plank is why although I’ve voting Brown and will urge others to do so, I can’t put his sign in my yard.

c. The “Elizabeth Warren” is lying ad:

As a rule you don’t put up an ad like this unless you are worried and you certainly don’t appear in that ad yourself. You have a woman voice over the ad or have either your wife or one of your daughters do the TV ad but NOT YOU. A man who complains that a woman is picking on him becomes the butt of jokes for guys and turns off women no matter what any metrosexuals tell you otherwise.

Now the debates will help because it is impossible for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren to not speak for herself there but if you are playing duck dodge and hide it won’t wash. Never forget this rule: Never try to out liberal a liberal it won’t win you a single vote among actual liberals and it just turns off conservatives & independents.

You are an appealing candidate and a pretty good senator, people like you, I like you. Just be yourself and say what you’ve done and what you believe.   Be proactive not reactive and you will win, be reactive and you give your opponent an opening she doesn’t deserve.

As everyone knows I’ve been hitting the polls lately for their simply outrageous attempts to create a false narrative by playing games with Demographic results.

In the last 48 hours two polls have come out concerning the Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts with diametrically different results, one by the liberal leaning WBUR a public radio Station out of Boston and once by the Boston Herald the right leaning Newspaper of the city.

WBUR puts Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren up by 5, The Herald puts Senator Scott Brown up by 6. That is fully a 11 point different in two polls released a day apart. Obviously they BOTH can’t be reflective of the State as a whole so lets look at them one at a time:

WBUR: This is a real difference from the last poll I looked at that showed a dead heat so when this poll came out I was ready for the worst and went straight for the party splits.

The Good news is finally FINALLY I’m seeing a poll where the splits match the demographics of the state.  The unweighed poll numbers were as follows:

Total 507 voters

Democrats polled 185 37%
GOP  60 12%
Unenrolled or other 262 51%

That’s a D+25 split which if this was a national poll would be a complete joke (and not quite unexpected considering the Whoppers we’ve seen lately) but in Massachusetts a state with under 5 GOP members in it’s senate and where getting to 25% representation in the House was an ACHIEVEMENT that’s not a joke, that’s the reality It matches up with the population based on the official state numbers from earlier this year.

WBUR’s poll gets Warren up 5 by the following results:

Sen Scott Brown:

With Unenrolleds (Independents):   51% electorate Brown up 49-35 (ind) Brown gets 24.99 vote

With the GOP:   12% electorate Brown up 85-9 (r)  10.2 vote

With Democrats:  37% electorate Warren up 71-15 (D) 5.55 vote

That adds up to 40.5 % of the vote for Scott Brown

On the other end Former Obama Administration Official Warren breakdown adds up to 17.85 (Ind) + 1.08 (GOP) + 26.27 (DEM)

That adds up to 45.2%

These numbers match the polling and demographics so I find this poll:   Credible

———————-

Boston Herald:

Now lets look at the Herald poll that has Brown up by 6 numbers

This poll shows Sen Brown up Buy 6 points among registered voters & 4 points among likely voters. It’s the first poll I’ve ever seen showing a Republican doing WORSE among likely voters than registered ones.

Sen Scott Brown takes:   93% of GOP & Leaners 58% of Independents & 20% of Democrats.
Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren takes:   7% of Republicans & Leaners, 35% of Independents & 73% of Democrats

The results are dramatically different vs the WBUR poll Brown’s share of the GOP vote is 8pts higher Warren’s 2 pts lower, With independents Brown is +9 in the Herald with Warren flat & with Dems Brown’s Share jumps +5 pts while Warren’s is +2

That accounts for part of the difference but lets look at the all important demographic split

lets focus on that highlighted area

This represents a split of +17 Dems without leaners and +20 with people who lean one way or the other. This however doesn’t match the latest demographics of the state. While the GOP figure is about right the Democrat figure is of 28% among likely voters is a full 9 points lower than it should be.

The Herald poll indicates Sen Brown winning one in five democrats so that under-sampling has a lesser effect but even so under-sampling by 9 points?   It just won’t do. If you adjust based on that under-sampling that Turns the Sen Brown 4-6 pt lead into a Warren 1-3 pt lead.

Thus I must dub the Herald poll:  Not Credible

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one. Moreover several anecdotal bits of evidence have cropped up lately that suggest Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has improved her standing which makes the WBUR poll more believable to me (more on that tomorrow).

But “DaTechGuy” you Might say, “You’re a Republican, you want Brown to win.  It’s your duty to back up the poll to help swing the momentum.”

That may be the MSM way but I say balderdash! The way to win a campaign is to look at it honestly and base your actions accordingly.  If I am winning I want to know it so I can keep exploiting my success, if I’m not I want to know it so I can correct any problems or mistakes.

Self delusion is no way to win an election, a lesson the MSM will learn nationally in November.

Update:  Sharp eyed readers will notice the original name for this post was “WBUR shows how it’s done”.  I started writing it yesterday but crashed on the couch exhausted before I finished it.  When I woke up at 2:30 AM the Herald poll was out and decided to shift the focus to a comparison and simply forgot to rename the internal title.

Update 2:  Today new fox poll that is supposedly “devastating” to the Romney Campaign Parisian splits Ohio D +6  Virginia D +5 Florida D +5 Ho Hum, more of the same.

Update 3:  it is spelled Pew but perhaps it should be spelled PU.  Pew reports Obama +8 Sample D +9 the biggest joke of the poll is this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86.  if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008.  Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

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