As everyone knows I’ve been hitting the polls lately for their simply outrageous attempts to create a false narrative by playing games with Demographic results.
In the last 48 hours two polls have come out concerning the Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts with diametrically different results, one by the liberal leaning WBUR a public radio Station out of Boston and once by the Boston Herald the right leaning Newspaper of the city.
WBUR puts Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren up by 5, The Herald puts Senator Scott Brown up by 6. That is fully a 11 point different in two polls released a day apart. Obviously they BOTH can’t be reflective of the State as a whole so lets look at them one at a time:
WBUR: This is a real difference from the last poll I looked at that showed a dead heat so when this poll came out I was ready for the worst and went straight for the party splits.
The Good news is finally FINALLY I’m seeing a poll where the splits match the demographics of the state. The unweighed poll numbers were as follows:
Total 507 voters
Democrats polled 185 37%
GOP 60 12%
Unenrolled or other 262 51%
That’s a D+25 split which if this was a national poll would be a complete joke (and not quite unexpected considering the Whoppers we’ve seen lately) but in Massachusetts a state with under 5 GOP members in it’s senate and where getting to 25% representation in the House was an ACHIEVEMENT that’s not a joke, that’s the reality It matches up with the population based on the official state numbers from earlier this year.
WBUR’s poll gets Warren up 5 by the following results:
Sen Scott Brown:
With Unenrolleds (Independents): 51% electorate Brown up 49-35 (ind) Brown gets 24.99 vote
With the GOP: 12% electorate Brown up 85-9 (r) 10.2 vote
With Democrats: 37% electorate Warren up 71-15 (D) 5.55 vote
That adds up to 40.5 % of the vote for Scott Brown
On the other end Former Obama Administration Official Warren breakdown adds up to 17.85 (Ind) + 1.08 (GOP) + 26.27 (DEM)
That adds up to 45.2%
These numbers match the polling and demographics so I find this poll: Credible
Now lets look at the Herald poll that has Brown up by 6 numbers
This poll shows Sen Brown up Buy 6 points among registered voters & 4 points among likely voters. It’s the first poll I’ve ever seen showing a Republican doing WORSE among likely voters than registered ones.
Sen Scott Brown takes: 93% of GOP & Leaners 58% of Independents & 20% of Democrats.
Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren takes: 7% of Republicans & Leaners, 35% of Independents & 73% of Democrats
The results are dramatically different vs the WBUR poll Brown’s share of the GOP vote is 8pts higher Warren’s 2 pts lower, With independents Brown is +9 in the Herald with Warren flat & with Dems Brown’s Share jumps +5 pts while Warren’s is +2
That accounts for part of the difference but lets look at the all important demographic split
lets focus on that highlighted area
This represents a split of +17 Dems without leaners and +20 with people who lean one way or the other. This however doesn’t match the latest demographics of the state. While the GOP figure is about right the Democrat figure is of 28% among likely voters is a full 9 points lower than it should be.
The Herald poll indicates Sen Brown winning one in five democrats so that under-sampling has a lesser effect but even so under-sampling by 9 points? It just won’t do. If you adjust based on that under-sampling that Turns the Sen Brown 4-6 pt lead into a Warren 1-3 pt lead.
Thus I must dub the Herald poll: Not Credible
I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one. Moreover several anecdotal bits of evidence have cropped up lately that suggest Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has improved her standing which makes the WBUR poll more believable to me (more on that tomorrow).
But “DaTechGuy” you Might say, “You’re a Republican, you want Brown to win. It’s your duty to back up the poll to help swing the momentum.”
That may be the MSM way but I say balderdash! The way to win a campaign is to look at it honestly and base your actions accordingly. If I am winning I want to know it so I can keep exploiting my success, if I’m not I want to know it so I can correct any problems or mistakes.
Self delusion is no way to win an election, a lesson the MSM will learn nationally in November.
Update: Sharp eyed readers will notice the original name for this post was “WBUR shows how it’s done”. I started writing it yesterday but crashed on the couch exhausted before I finished it. When I woke up at 2:30 AM the Herald poll was out and decided to shift the focus to a comparison and simply forgot to rename the internal title.
That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86. if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.
Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008. Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?