I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.

This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:

Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:

Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Romney – 44%
Undecided – 4%

This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an outside chance of winning in Massachusetts he needs big numbers in areas outside of Boston, Worcester & Springfield.

Meanwhile in the Congressional race looks very similar

Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik­ – 45%
Undecided – 3%

Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.

Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.

Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%

At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls

Female – 55%

Male – 45%

Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)

“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”

I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:

Democrat – 31%
Republican – 17%
Independent / Other – 52%

That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:

In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women

Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik

And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!

Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.

While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.

Favorable/Unfavorable

Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.

Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.

This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do

1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.

2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.

3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)

The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.

This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this:  In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample  has an opponent in striking range.

If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?

And it shouts to the right loud and clear:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.

I wanted to write something about the assisted suicide referendum but I could spend an hour on it and I could not do better than what my Pastor Fr. Robert Bruso did this week in my church bulletin:

“The vote in November on Physician Assisted Suicide is not about an individual choice,; it is a threat to all of us. Anyone with a memory can recite time after time when the government introduced an option that became a mandate. Anyone who trust government officials to keep their word is idealistic to a fault.

We all remember when Sunday opening for retail stories was introduced. We were assured that no one would ever be required to work on Sunday if it violated their conscience. Ask anyone in retail what would happen if they said they will not work on Sunday.

We all remember when abortion was legalized. We were assured no doctor would ever be required to perform an abortion. Ask any medical student in gynaecology/obstetrics hat will happen if they say they will not participate or observe an abortion as part of their studies.

“Recently I was speaking to a nurse at Beth Israel Hospital in Boston who had a patient who had a heart procedure there. He was from Europe but his daughter lived in the United States and he came here because in his country, heart procedures are not performed on people over 75. If he didn’t have connections in the US, he would have just died. The pressure on insurance companies to lower the cost of health care is such that, I can guarantee you this: If Physician Assisted Suicide becomes legal in this country we will be in the same position much of Europe is today. The impetus to give people “death with dignity” that is, kill them off when they become a burden, will take over and no one but the wealthiest will be allowed to live if they are ill and elderly. I can envision a kind of “super-premium” on health insurance for those who want continued care after a certain age.

Abortion is more than the thin edge of the wedge. We sit idly by as a million human babies are chopped up into little pieces and flushed away each year. Even Hitler didn’t do that. In any godless society , human life loses its intrinsic value and has only relative value. Being made in the image and likeness of God gives every person worth, value and intrinsic dignity. Without God we are just cogs in a wheel, to be removed when we get rusty.

A baby is precious if the mother wants him or her, otherwise s/he is just a fetus, an unnecessary growth to be removed. A person who is ill is worth of care and compassion unless the money runs out.

My father always said: “If someone tells you ‘it’s not the money it’s the principle,’ trust me it’s the money.” Physician Assisted Suicide is all about death with dignity? Hogwash! It’s all about the cost of care for the elderly and the terminally ill and our generation will pay the price if we’re not willing to stand up now.”

If the right to life goes all other rights are meaningless.

If it’s day ending in “y” we have a poll showing Mitt Romney in terrible shape:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

It’s interesting to note that on TV this split being played up a lot more than in the written story. On Morning Joe this was evidence Mitt Romney DOOM! (no video available yet)

However Dalek Media not withstanding I live in realville and in realville we judge polls by their internals and the internals of this poll have two results that say a lot:

Let’s zoom in on that

So we have a poll with a 43-40 sample D + 3 but lets look even closer at the internals. They asked a really good question:

Which of these statements best describes how you have usually voted in past elections:

Not only do you have a 49-45 split D vs R here but look at the straight/strongly numbers and you have D + 7 split.

Let’s remind everyone where the Electorate actually is:

Ok lets give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and assume that after the DNC convention who’s most memorable moment is needing a phony vote to put God & Jerusalem back in the platform the 4.3 GOP August advantage has gone back to a 0.9 that existed in July. That still means this poll is off +4 to +5

As I’m typing this Chuck Todd is saying in every “legitimate poll” president Obama is ahead (thus he discounts the new PA poll showing a 2 pt gap but as I haven’t seen internals yet I’m still withholding judgement on it.) so I ask this question to Chuck Todd via Twitter?

I submit and suggest that until the media answers that question, all they are doing is spreading Democrat propaganda.

I don’t pretend I am not unbiased but the numbers are the numbers, if you have the numbers to back up what you say, provide them, if you don’t then you are simply an in-kind contribution to the Barack Obama campaign.

BTW I call the MSM the “Dalek Media” because no matter what MSM show you see they all look alike, all sound alike and if you dare speak words that contradict their liberal narrative this is their reaction:

Update: Latest PPP poll in Florida Obama up +4 but unfortunately for those pushing the poll some of us live in realville and want to see the splits:

Not only do we have a D+8 sample on this poll but when it’s known that Democrats do better with women and the GOP with men this poll has a +6 split women over men.

Update 2: Heard back from the reporter who did the initial story on the PA poll, internals go out tomorrow but he directed me to this link which shows a D+6 sample

First, our ratio of interviews conducted with Republicans and Democrats in our recent polls (49D – 43R) gives Democrats a 6-point advantage based on the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in actual registration. However, this ratio is slightly more Republican based on both national and state polling showing that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year given high intensity among Republicans who strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance. Nonetheless, this +6 Democratic advantage is only one point less Democrat than the 7-point advantage these same exit polls gave Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.

Oh and fixed a bad link.