Demoralized as Hell The New MA-3 poll & the Left

by Datechguy | September 24th, 2012

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Demoralized as Hell The New MA-3 poll & the Left

I just received a new poll for Ma-​3 (My con­gres­sional dis­trict) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.

This is a dis­trict that is newly formed so there are not con­crete num­bers avail­able for the party splits (I am sys­tem­at­i­cally call­ing each town in the dis­trict to get the num­bers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the num­bers from the Scott Brown elec­tion for the dis­trict in 2010:

Brown 57% 129521
Coak­ley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:

Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Rom­ney – 44%
Undecided – 4%

This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an out­side chance of win­ning in Mass­a­chu­setts he needs big num­bers in areas out­side of Boston, Worces­ter & Springfield.

Mean­while in the Con­gres­sional race looks very similar

Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik­ – 45%
Undecided – 3%

Tsongas is run­ning even with Obama but Gol­nik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.

Mean­while here is are Scott Brown num­bers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.

Scott Brown – 54%
Eliz­a­beth War­ren – 42%
Undecided – 4%

At first glance this poll might be encour­ag­ing to Eliz­a­beth War­ren, she is still even with Martha Coak­ley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remain­ing 4 pts of unde­cided to match the last go around. But there are sev­eral rea­sons to worry here if I’m War­ren first comes this split in the polls

Female – 55%

Male – 45%

Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that cham­pion of women Liz War­ren by 12 points (and remem­ber this was taken BEFORE the law license rev­e­la­tions of today)

But DaT­e­chGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”

I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:

Demo­c­rat – 31%
Repub­li­can – 17%
Inde­pen­dent /​Other – 52%

That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP com­pared to statewide, unde­clared is the same) This is a much more GOP sec­tion of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to con­firm by how much but lets note the following:

In a sam­ple that is +14 dem & +10 women

Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Rom­ney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik

And Scott Brown leads Eliz­a­beth War­ren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!

Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at win­ning the state he has do to bet­ter but to pull these kind of num­bers with a –14 dis­ad­van­tage if extrap­o­lated statewide & nation­ally says a lot about both War­ren & Obama and none of it good.

While all of that is impor­tant lets look at this con­gres­sional race and the num­bers involved.

Favorable/​Unfavorable

Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favor­a­bil­ity Rat­ings. She has a famous name and is a sit­ting con­gress­woman but more impor­tantly she is a pleas­ant per­son. Addi­tion­ally only 8% of the elec­torate dosn’t have an opin­ion so that’s a real advantage.

Her Oppo­nent Jon Gol­nik has a +16 Favor­a­bil­ity Rat­ings, that’s noth­ing to sneeze at par­tic­u­larly in a –14 poll sam­ple but the big dif­fer­ence here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.

This is his open­ing, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has sev­eral things he can do

1. Oba­macare: Remem­ber Oba­macare was the rea­son Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpop­u­lar law. Gol­nik needs to tie her Oba­macare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flota­tion device.

2. Brown/​Golnik Warren/​Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Gol­nik, he needs to play up, it must be Gol­nik & Brown vs Tsongas & War­ren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas any­where in the Dis­trict Gol­nik needs to sand­ing next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-​3 HAS to be a Gol­nik event mean­while all over Fitch­burg I see Nikki Tsongas & Eliz­a­beth War­ren signs together, great, link them by the hip.

3. Pos­i­tive Pos­i­tive Pos­i­tive: Hit­ting a 66 year old widow of a beloved fig­ure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go neg­a­tive needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Oba­macare is not neg­a­tive adver­tis­ing, that’s the truth)

The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice per­son and an hon­est per­son, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Eliz­a­beth War­ren, wrong on Oba­macare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd Dis­trict. Jon Gol­nik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, end­ing the Man­date of Oba­macare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.

This race is com­pletely winnable by Jon Gol­nik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left con­sider this: In Mass­a­chu­setts with a +14 D sam­ple and a +10 Women sam­ple has an oppo­nent in strik­ing range.

If this is the sit­u­a­tion in Mass­a­chu­setts what must it be nation­wide in states where Obama is not as popular?

And it shouts to the right loud and clear:

“Ride right through them, they’re demor­al­ized as hell”!

If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.

I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.

This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:

Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:

Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Romney – 44%
Undecided – 4%

This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an outside chance of winning in Massachusetts he needs big numbers in areas outside of Boston, Worcester & Springfield.

Meanwhile in the Congressional race looks very similar

Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik­ – 45%
Undecided – 3%

Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.

Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.

Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%

At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls

Female – 55%

Male – 45%

Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)

“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”

I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:

Democrat – 31%
Republican – 17%
Independent / Other – 52%

That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:

In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women

Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik

And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!

Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.

While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.

Favorable/Unfavorable

Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.

Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.

This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do

1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.

2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.

3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)

The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.

This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this:  In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample  has an opponent in striking range.

If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?

And it shouts to the right loud and clear:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.

DaTechGuy on DaRadio Saturday Noon EST. WBNW AM 1120 Concord WPLM 1390 Plymouth, FTR Radio, the 405 Media

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