by Datechguy | September 24th, 2012
I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.
This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:
Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:
Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Romney – 44%
Undecided – 4%
This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an outside chance of winning in Massachusetts he needs big numbers in areas outside of Boston, Worcester & Springfield.
Meanwhile in the Congressional race looks very similar
Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik – 45%
Undecided – 3%
Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.
Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.
Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%
At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls
Female – 55%
Male – 45%
Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)
“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”
I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:
Democrat – 31%
Republican – 17%
Independent / Other – 52%
That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:
In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women
Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik
And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!
Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.
While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.
Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.
Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.
This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do
1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.
2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.
3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)
The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.
This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this: In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample has an opponent in striking range.
If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?
And it shouts to the right loud and clear:
If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.