by Datechguy | September 27th, 2012
I’ve written a lot about the skew in the polls but today in the hot air green room Matt Vespa in the process of debunking Chris “The sky is falling for the GOP” Cilliza brings up a point that almost nobody is talking about:
This leads us to the next poll: the direction of the country. What “jolt of optimism” is Cillizza talking about? Rasmussen has 36% of Americans believing the nation is on the right track.
Now while we give our friends on the left a few minutes to scream how: “Rasmussen can’t be trusted” business lets take a look at the overall numbers in this poll since Jan 2009 the month Barack Obama Took office:
When you look at that chart remember this is an AVERAGE of every single polls that is measured not a single poll that skews one way or the other.
Right now the MSM is running a ton of polls with huge Democrat skews yet take a look at the results at the end of the chart for today:
56.3 vs 37.6 Wrong track over right track that’s a spread of 18.7 and consider this: The CBS/NYT poll and the NBC/WSJ poll, the two polls that are the most skewed have a wrong track/right track numbers of -19 & -16 respectively.
Think about that: Even with a sample that couldn’t favor Obama more if they were paid employees of the white house they can’t even get a gap of less that 10 pts let alone a favorable number.
More importantly consider the historical perspective:
You have to go to June 13th 2009 to find a day during the last 4 years where the right track/wrong track numbers were equal.
On Jan 20th 2010 the national spread was 56.9 to 36.6 just 2.4 off today’s number yet the day before Massachusetts, a state that nobody contends is a state where the president has a chance of losing in 2012 elected a Republican senator to replace the late Ted Kennedy.
On Election day 2010 the spread of 63.8 to 31.2 A 32.6 points gap, just under double what it is today and the GOP won nationwide in an election so historic it reached into statehouses all over the country.
On September 13th 2011 the spread was 73.6 to 20.8 a gap of 52.8 and for the first time since Woodrow Wilson was president a republican won an election in the 9th district of NY right in the heart of New York City.
What does that mean for today?
On Election day 2012, It is unlikely the right direction/ wrong direction spread will be 52.8. That suggest Mitt Romney isn’t going to manage to win the State of New York.
On Election day 2012 It is unlikely the right/wrong spread will be 32.6. That suggests Mitt Romney isn’t going to manage a victory of historic proportions all over the country.
But with just over 40 days to the election with polls so skewed it’s a wonder the computers they are tabulated on don’t tip over the right/wrong track is 18.7 pretty close to the numbers on the Day Scott Brown was first elected, does that mean Mitt is going to do well enough to take a state as blue as Massachusetts?
I think not, but unfortunately for the left, he doesn’t have to take Massachusetts, or New York or any other deep blue state. He has to take the states in the middle, the ones that once voted for the GOP but went to Obama in the heady days of Nov 2008 for the left.
And a with a right track / wrong track number of 18.7 that’s not only doable that’s practically inevitable.
I’m sure there are people who might not like Mitt Romney, I’m sure there are those who don’t like he is a Mormon, those who don’t like he is rich and those who think he’s kind of stiff.
But unless you live in the land of deep blue delusion nobody in their right mind would suggest he is unqualified to be president.
This election isn’t going to be about: “Do I like Mitt Romney?” This election isn’t even going to be about “Has Barack Obama done a good job” the polling shows the verdict is already in on it.
The people are dying to vote against Barack Obama, all Mitt Romney has to do is convince them he can do the job, because Barack Obama has already convinced them he can’t.
Update: VDH notes how few votes it would have taken to make 1980 a Carter victory
In other words, until the very last week of the campaign, Reagan had an uphill fight. True, he eventually won a landslide victory in the Electoral College (489 to 49) and beat Carter handily in the popular vote. Yet Reagan only received a 51-percent majority.
What had saved Reagan from a perfect storm of negative factors — gaffes, additional conservative candidates on the ballot, a single debate, and a biased media — was not just the debate. Voter turnout was relatively low at only 53 percent. If Reagan’s conservative base was united and energized, Carter’s proved divided and indifferent.
Mitt doesn’t have a John Anderson but he also doesn’t have Reagan’s charisma, his conclusion:
The winner probably won’t be decided by old video clips, gaffes, or even campaign money, but by turnout and the October debates — depending on whether incumbent Obama comes across as a petulant Carter and challenger Romney appears an upbeat Reagan. As in 1980, voters want a better president — but they first have to be assured he’s on the ballot.