Welcome to Realville: Media reality vs Reality Reality

The Simpsons have been on TV for a very long time. A lot of people have seen this scene of Homer voting for Obama:

But registering for McCain

And while 29 Million plus have seen this fictional account there is a little bit of reality that has not gotten the same attention:

For some reason this video hasn’t gone viral. Funny I would think this would be of interest to the news media, but then again there are a lot of interesting things that don’t get a lot of play like this interesting tidbit of information:

You read that correctly: In any attempted poll or survey, only 9% of attempted contacts come back with an actual response.

That means 91% of sampled households are NOT having their opinions recorded by pollsters.

Now personally I think not answering polls are foolish but the math is the math and reality is reality, so when I see polls the the Washington Post poll that says this:

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling. The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

The big gap on swing states makes less sense, though. The biggest non-swing states should favor Obama — California, New York, and Illinois, with Texas being the only large non-swing state that is firmly in the Republican column. Romney will win the South easily, but Obama gets the whole West Coast and most of New England, too. Without a chance to see the samples in each state and the demographic breakout, I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

If you are going to make a declaration in your poll you need to provide at least the cross tabs to be checked, like the Boston Globe poll.

I crunched the numbers and found the sample split thus D-36.5% R-14.2 Other -48.3%.

The Democrat numbers match registration but the GOP numbers are up 3 points from the latest state figures, while it is certainly possible that the GOP has gained a bit (after all when you are as low as the party is you can only go up) this poll certainly has not played games with registration numbers to get Liz Warren ahead. If that is the case Scott Brown might need to do some tweaking (I’m suggested some already)

Reality reality involves looking at things as they are, for example the one commodity that neither campaign can get more of before election day is Time and that time has to be spent where support is needed, thus the question.

Why is Obama postponing a trip to Columbus, Ohio to come to Madison, Wisconsin the day after the first debate?

This is for all the marbles, does a candidate really waste a day that he can’t replace in this way?

If you want to dispute my take on the polls, fine make your case, but the math is the math and the reality is the reality and don’t think for one moment that either the Obama campaign or the Romney Campaign doesn’t know where this race is.

Don’t watch what they say, watch what they DO. That is the only way you can afford a home in realville.

Update: And Stacy McCain tells you, there are papers in Realville too.

Update 2: Speaking of realville, Brian Preston finds PPP doesn’t have an apartment in that town in North Carolina.

How does PPP arrive at this 48-48 tie? Looking at page three, we find the answer: Democrats make up 48% of the respondents, while Republicans only make up 34%.

Is it possible that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14%, and will vote that way on November 6, in North Carolina?

Sure, it’s possible. It’s also possible that space monkeys will descend from their base on one of Jupiter’s moons to declare a cheese war on the US Virgin Islands tomorrow.

Well that would explain the lack of security in Libya, the administration is preparing for the Virgin Islands Cheese wars.