Right now a lot of pundits are giving a lot of reasons why Mitt Romney won tonight.

President Obama didn’t attack enough

Jim Lehrer didn’t control the debate

Romney dodged his base

etc etc etc

These are all important points, but people are forgetting something.

In every poll even the ones so skewed that it you would guess they were taken at the SEIU vs NAACP charity softball game the Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers are upside down for the President.

The American People want an excuse to replace this president, Mitt Romney needed do to one basic thing, show the American People that he is an acceptable and competent alternative.

That’s a very low threshold and he didn’t just clear it, he pole vaulted over it having numbers and details at his fingertips, as befits his nature

The people are dying to vote against President Obama, they just needed a reason to do so, Mitt Romney gave them that.

My advice to my friends on the right?

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Now is the time to finish this guy off.

Update: Late night Instalanche Hi all, Three things:

1. I have a special edition of DaTechGuy on DaRadio coming up 1 p.m. EST on WCRN AM 830 listen live at wcrnradio.com

2. Saturday I will be doing my show live from the American Products Store’s American Crafts show. The Crafts event is from 9-3 I’ll be broadcasting from 10-noon 187 Main Street – that’s Route 9- in Cherry Valley

3. On Saturday Oct 20th we will have our 100th show, we are broadcasting live from Lago’s Ristorante Mill Street Worcester, we will be broadcasting 10 to noon and staying till two meeting with listeners and providing a free brunch. If you would like to go just click the ticket below and reserve a spot because seating is limited

And don’t forget I have subscription commentaries now available, if you want to see a teaser of the latest one click here.

Update 2: Consider this from Jonah:

David Freddoso who said on Twitter that if all you knew about Romney was what you saw in Obama’s TV ads, you’d get the sense that Obama’s been lying to you all this time. Romney helped himself tonight — possibly a lot.

At first I wouldn’t believe, because I was a Norman I wouldn’t let myself believe…

Olivia DeHavilland The Adventures of Robin Hood 1938

JOURNALIST: Public opinion-made to order.

DIZ*: Yeah, Taylor-made.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington 1938

This morning I briefly linked to Ann Althouse’s piece as an update to my bit on polling and narratives, but the more I think about it the more I see real significance in her blog post that deserves attention.

Let’s start with the title:

What’s the birther/truther word for those who think political polls have become, basically, propaganda?

Right off we see an equivalence between “birthers” (those who think President Obama was not born in Hawaii) and Truthers (Those who believe we attacked ourselves on 9/11 as part of a grand conspiracy) and those who doubt the polls,  A person not reading the rest of this would naturally think this post was dismissive of those who question the pollsters

Pollers? Pollemicists? Poller bears? The Poller Opposites? Help me out.

It sounds like she is going to have some fun with those rubes who doubt, Johnathan Chait would be happy

I need a good coinage for the condition I’ve found myself lapsing into.

…right up until the point when it becomes apparent that she is one of those people

Here’s the latest symptom.

Note the use of the word, “symptom” she is describing a disease, a problem something that must be cured

I think I saw somewhere this morning — on Drudge? — that CNN had the presidential race suddenly tightening up, in advance of the polls.  And my first thought — I just blurted it out loud

Again, note the phrase:  “Just blurted it out loud“, no careful consideration, no weighing of evidence she just reacted .

— was: They’re saying it’s close right in advance of the debate so they can say, after the debate, that Obama went up. He won the debate.

Ann Althouse is a prominent law professor, an academic, she’s not just some Cheetos eating blogger.  Law professors just don’t do this kind of thing.  She continues:

I went over to Drudge to look for what I’d seen, and I didn’t find that but I found:

Under oath, Edwards pollster admits polls were ‘propaganda’…

POLL: Plurality of Americans believe POLLS biased for Obama…

Althouse is a lawyer, he understand the difference between circumstantial evidence and admissible evidence.

And here’s what I remember seeing this morning that brought on my pollemic

Again pollemic a word signifying something unreasonable.

: “New CNN/ORC poll less skewed for Barack Obama than the previous one.”
The survey, that includes a smaller eight percent over-sample of Democratic voters, has Obama leading by a 49 percent to 47 percent edge….

The news here is not that this poll is slightly skewed, but compared to the 15.4 percent skewed in favor of the Democrats in the controversial September 10 CNN/ORC poll, this latest one is based on a far less skewed sample.

Note she states as fact that the previous poll was badly skewed, (and yes it was) and she points out that the subsequent poll is skewed “far less”

And then comes the full Maid Marian, the moment of realization

See? I think they adjust the skew to get the result that suits the propaganda purpose, and they’re temporarily making the race look tight to make the debate seem super-important. (That’s good for CNN’s ratings, so there’s a commercial, nonpolitical reason too for poll fakery.) Then they can make a show of breaking the news that Obama got big debate bounce.

Now why is this any more important than any other, take a look at the language here, Ann Althouse is an Obama voter from 2008 who insists that given the same information at the time she still would have voted for him, but month after month she has seen what she has seen, in fact during the entire Scott Walker business she was in the middle of it. Being a reasonable person she didn’t want to believe, she didn’t want to think that we had reached this point in our political and media discourse, but she saw first had the difference between reality as it is and reality as our media present it, till finally at an instinctive level when exposed to it she can’t restrain herself anymore. No matter how much she would rather it not be so, she finds herself crying aloud like the child in the farie tale: “The Emperor has no Clothes”

I think there are millions of Ann Althouse/Maid Marions who have come to realizations that they would rather have not over the last few years. And I think the media has only itself to blame.

Ann Welcome to realville.

As we get ready for tonight debate here is my examiner piece contrasting the two debates in Massachusetts I covered this week, Brown v Warren & Tsongas V Golnik:

On Sunday afternoon incumbent Niki Tsongas running to retain her seat in the newly redrawn 3rd Massachusetts district faced Jon Golnik in the first debate of their rematch of the 2010 race at the Concord Carlisle High School.

On Monday Evening incumbent Scott Brown running to retain his seat in the US senate faced Elizabeth Warren in their second debate at the Tsongas Center in Lowell.

Both debates where an hour long and both featured the respective nominees of the Republican and Democrat Parties but there the similarities ended.

We focus on the big races, Romney vs Obama, Brown vs Warren but there are hundreds of house races flying under the radar that the future of the next president’s terms will depend on.

Please click and read the whole thing, it’s the easiest way to put 3/4 of a cent in my pocket short of hitting DaTipJar

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

It not important for them to know, it’s important for me to know

Patton 1970

The chips are down. I want you to keep everything that Smith says out of all our newspapers and all the others you can line up in the state. As for those broken-down opposition papers who don’t want to play ball with us. I want you to tie them up for 24 hours.

Mr Smith Goes to Washington 1039

I’ve been under the weather since my returning colleges kindly Saturday’s show and last night so as soon as the Obama tape came out I watched the short version and crashed totally ignoring the debate over the tape.

Before I hit the sack our friends on the left were busying saying there was nothing to see here and trying to dismiss it even before the tape was seen

At about 7:30 p.m. ET, the DNC Rapid Response team sent an email to reporters titled “That was Lame,” listing “instant reaction to the latest lame Drudge/Hannity desperation tactics.”

The email merely included tweets from journalists — before the story was published — expressing skepticism and disinterest and the mistaken claim that the video had been published before.

The tweets used by the Democratic National Committee came from reporters at organizations including Politico, BuzzFeed, The Huffington Post, The New York Times, New York Magazine and the Atlantic.

Because it’s always the best practice to report on items before they are released.

Then the video was released:

and we saw things like this:

All forgetting that a joke isn’t old if you haven’t heard it

And then came the race accusations:

Because nothing is more racist than showing Barack Obama an unedited and unfiltered.

And of course then the left showed their own sensitivity toward certain groups like Gays and Jews:

Mind you this isn’t just some guy, this is a regular at Huffington post and a player, a man who has been in Washington for years and one who has served democrat members of congress and now a senior media matters fellow. I was half expecting a line about ladyparts but I digress.

When that didn’t stop the conversation the left decided to produce a video of their own at where else, the Huffington Post:

Mitt Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan, share a similarly dim view of a very large portion of Americans, according to previously unreported remarks by Ryan. Both believe that many of their fellow citizens are dependent on government and have no motivation to improve their lives — but they disagree over the precise number.

Romney’s estimate, famously, is 47 percent. For Ryan, it’s 30 percent.

The idea being those not paying attention oh there is a video or there is another video And MSNBC being MSNBC played them side by side, only problem is a Politico pointed out on Morning Joe the Ryan Video actually helps Romney the quote:

Today 70% of Americans get more benefits from the Federal Government in dollar value then they pay back in taxes, so you can argue that we are already past that tipping point. The good news is. survey after survey, poll after poll still shows we are still a center right 70-30 country. 70% of Americans want the American dream they believe in the American idea only 30% want the welfare state. What that tells us is that at least half of those people in that category are there not of their wish or their will. They believe in that horizon that they’re shooting for, they’re down on their luck, they’re out of their job they’re back in school. They want the American idea and they want their kids to be better off. emphasis mine

But the left is correctly thinking it is less damaging to have attention drawn to an exculpatory video for Romney (and perhaps those not paying attention will just take it as described by the left) then for people to pay attention to the President in his own words.

What our friends on the left and the media have not figured out concerning the Obama video as they cry “race” is the target. It is not Barack Obama as much as it is the media that has protected him as Glenn Reynolds put it:

SO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW OBAMA VIDEO DROP, one establishment political journalist tells me it’s no big deal because everyone knows Obama’s a big lefty, talks blacker when with black audiences, etc., etc.

But the thing is, in 2004-2008, Obama sold himself as a black guy who wasn’t in the mold of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. So when he sounds like that, it’s a contradiction. You know, the kind of hypocrisy the press usually goes after in politicians. Unless, as with Obama, the press is trying to drag them across the finish line. Because there’s no way they’re going to let Obama be a one-term, when the hated W got two. . . .

And that is the point, the Media knew Barack Obama for who he was in 2008 but that person might not have won, and that could not be allowed (particularly with the hated Sarah Palin on the GOP ticket) so they hid it.

Why do you think the movie 2016 continues to rock the box office? This movie has no business making the money it is, but the MSM decided that it wasn’t going to fill in the blanks on Barack Obama because it would tend to incriminate him. So when D’Sousa’s film came out and told the story the media would not, people rushed to see it.

The media decided to be Journo-listers, rather than Journalists and this is not the first time as Ed Driscol reminds us:

A presidential candidate calls for bankrupting an entire industry? Let’s ignore it in plain sight.

A presidential candidate calls for higher energy prices for all Americans, especially the poor? Capital idea, we agree! But on the whole, let’s ignore it in plain sight.

A presidential candidate has spent years marinating in a radical chic background? Let’s ignore it in plain sight.

The Middle East is in tatters as a result of an administration asleep at the wheel? Let’s ignore it in plain sight.

A border agent killed and guns in the hands of Mexican criminals? Let’s ignore it in plain sight.

An incendiary racially charged speech involving the man who is now the president of the United States emerges that 99 percent of the general public hasn’t seen? Old news. Let’s ignore it in plain sight.

There are those who have taken exception to my critiques of polls, and to the suggestion that the media is in the tank for this president. They might ask how I can say such a thing like this:

It is my nature to believe the best of people but if anyone ANYONE actually believes that this media is not collectively trying to give this race to Barack Obama they are suckers.

It’s because we saw it in 2007, we saw it in 2008, we saw it in 2010 and we continue to see it. Think about it for a second we actually saw the media after America was successfully attacked on 9/11’s anniversary killing our Ambassador focus on…blaming Mitt Romney for supposedly bad words.

The question isn’t why we distrust the MSM, the question is why any sane person would?

Update: BTW here is what that same media thinks of you

And that was retweeted by no less than John Harwood of CNBC