How to figure out a Latino poll is BS from quite a long way away

by Datechguy | October 7th, 2012

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How to figure out a Latino poll is BS from quite a long way away

Ear­lier this week I got an E-​mail from the great Fausta.

I gave her a call and we talked about a poll she wanted my opin­ion on. It is the Latino Deci­sions polls and she thought the num­bers were kind of weird.

I took a look at the poll and it didn’t take long to notice some .…inter­est­ing issues to wit:

This is the sixth release of an 11-​week track­ing poll of Latino reg­is­tered vot­ers. Each week impre­Me­dia and Latino Deci­sions will release a new rolling cross-​section of 300 com­pleted inter­views with Latino reg­is­tered vot­ers across all 50 states. Bat­tle­ground inter­view­ers are com­bined across all six weeks and are 267 com­pleted inter­views, with Florida account­ing for the largest share of bat­tle­ground states.

So the bat­tle ground fig­ures in this poll are actu­ally mini sam­ples taken over six weeks while opin­ions might be chang­ing. That’s bad enough but con­sider one more thing:

Bat­tle­ground states: FL, NV, CO, AZ, OH, NH, NC, VA, IA, MO (all 7 points or smaller mar­gin in cur­rent pres­i­den­tial polls)

For­get the insan­ity of try­ing to extrap­o­late the latino vote over fifty states based on a 300 per­son sam­ple. Lets look at the 10 bat­tle­ground states 267 answers over 10 states.

I would just say the num­bers but I think I can explain this with a visual much more effectively:

And yes peo­ple are actu­ally falling for this stuff.

Update: Wel­come Green Room & Faustina read­ers. Don’t for­get there are still free tick­ets avail­able for my 100th show extrav­a­ganza (we’ll feed you) My analy­sis of what has really been going on over­all (quoted by Rush) is avail­able here and don’t for­get for as lit­tle as the price of a sin­gle Star­bucks cof­fee you can get access to my subscriber/​tip jar hit­ter only com­men­taries. A teaser here.

Earlier this week I got an E-mail from the great Fausta.

I gave her a call and we talked about a poll she wanted my opinion on. It is the Latino Decisions polls and she thought the numbers were kind of weird.

I took a look at the poll and it didn’t take long to notice some ….interesting issues to wit:

This is the sixth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross-section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Battleground interviewers are combined across all six weeks and are 267 completed interviews, with Florida accounting for the largest share of battleground states.

So the battle ground figures in this poll are actually mini samples taken over six weeks while opinions might be changing. That’s bad enough but consider one more thing:

Battleground states: FL, NV, CO, AZ, OH, NH, NC, VA, IA, MO (all 7 points or smaller margin in current presidential polls)

Forget the insanity of trying to extrapolate the latino vote over fifty states based on a 300 person sample. Lets look at the 10 battleground states 267 answers over 10 states.

I would just say the numbers but I think I can explain this with a visual much more effectively:

And yes people are actually falling for this stuff.

Update: Welcome Green Room & Faustina readers. Don’t forget there are still free tickets available for my 100th show extravaganza (we’ll feed you) My analysis of what has really been going on overall (quoted by Rush) is available here and don’t forget for as little as the price of a single Starbucks coffee you can get access to my subscriber/tip jar hitter only commentaries. A teaser here.

DaTechGuy on DaRadio Saturday Noon EST. WBNW AM 1120 Concord WPLM 1390 Plymouth WESO 970 Southbridge, FTR Radio, the 405 Media

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