by Datechguy | October 7th, 2012
Earlier this week I got an E-mail from the great Fausta.
I gave her a call and we talked about a poll she wanted my opinion on. It is the Latino Decisions polls and she thought the numbers were kind of weird.
I took a look at the poll and it didn’t take long to notice some ….interesting issues to wit:
This is the sixth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross-section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Battleground interviewers are combined across all six weeks and are 267 completed interviews, with Florida accounting for the largest share of battleground states.
So the battle ground figures in this poll are actually mini samples taken over six weeks while opinions might be changing. That’s bad enough but consider one more thing:
Battleground states: FL, NV, CO, AZ, OH, NH, NC, VA, IA, MO (all 7 points or smaller margin in current presidential polls)
Forget the insanity of trying to extrapolate the latino vote over fifty states based on a 300 person sample. Lets look at the 10 battleground states 267 answers over 10 states.
I would just say the numbers but I think I can explain this with a visual much more effectively:
And yes people are actually falling for this stuff.
Update: Welcome Green Room & Faustina readers. Don’t forget there are still free tickets available for my 100th show extravaganza (we’ll feed you) My analysis of what has really been going on overall (quoted by Rush) is available here and don’t forget for as little as the price of a single Starbucks coffee you can get access to my subscriber/tip jar hitter only commentaries. A teaser here.