Realville: Two bad GOP polls I like WBUR in MA Time in Ohio

There are two polls I checked out before leav­ing the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is noth­ing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown War­ren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward War­ren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the inter­nals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mis­takes in the air war (more on that tomor­row) and hope­fully this poll will cause him to pivot to a bet­ter strat­egy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t cor­rect a prob­lem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown cam­paign of a prob­lem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Mag­a­zine poll in Ohio show­ing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaT­e­chGuy have you gone road­trip crazy? Why would you love a poll show­ing Rom­ney los­ing Ohio?”

Sim­ple I looked at the inter­nals of this poll. Unlike most polls the par­ti­san splits are not as obvi­ous, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 peo­ple in the unweighed sam­ple 290 Democ­rats, 220 Repub­li­cans and 224 inde­pen­dent. That comes out to a sam­ple that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respon­dents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 inde­pen­dents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on reg­is­tra­tion this indi­cates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” busi­ness to keep their peo­ple on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama cam­paign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these num­bers short of sim­ple pro­pa­ganda, this means they will not change their strat­egy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Clos­ing note. In the stu­dio on Morn­ing Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hang­ing their hats on the Time Mag­a­zine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opin­ion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Rom­ney is going to win this elec­tion and it’s not going to be close.