Realville: Two bad GOP polls I like WBUR in MA Time in Ohio

Readability

Realville: Two bad GOP polls I like WBUR in MA Time in Ohio

There are two polls I checked out before leav­ing the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is noth­ing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown War­ren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward War­ren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the inter­nals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mis­takes in the air war (more on that tomor­row) and hope­fully this poll will cause him to pivot to a bet­ter strat­egy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t cor­rect a prob­lem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown cam­paign of a prob­lem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Mag­a­zine poll in Ohio show­ing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaT­e­chGuy have you gone road­trip crazy? Why would you love a poll show­ing Rom­ney los­ing Ohio?”

Sim­ple I looked at the inter­nals of this poll. Unlike most polls the par­ti­san splits are not as obvi­ous, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 peo­ple in the unweighed sam­ple 290 Democ­rats, 220 Repub­li­cans and 224 inde­pen­dent. That comes out to a sam­ple that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respon­dents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 inde­pen­dents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on reg­is­tra­tion this indi­cates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” busi­ness to keep their peo­ple on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama cam­paign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these num­bers short of sim­ple pro­pa­ganda, this means they will not change their strat­egy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Clos­ing note. In the stu­dio on Morn­ing Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hang­ing their hats on the Time Mag­a­zine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opin­ion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Rom­ney is going to win this elec­tion and it’s not going to be close.

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.