Two years ago when I had my road trip with Stacy McCain we hit the PA-10 race where Tom Mario was trying to win his first term in the house.
While in PA I met one of the most experienced political people I ever met Hughey (pronounced Huey) Woodring who accurately told us what was going to happen in the state that year.
This year I knew I wasn’t going to be able to hit PA so before I left the house I gave a call to Hughey to find out what the situation was down there, both for the Marino re-elect effort and for the state in general.
Hughey was surprised to hear from me, he started by telling me Tom Marino is looking very safe for re-election in his slightly redrawn 10th district. Real Clear Politics apparently agrees as they don’t even list PA-10 as a race on their radar.
This is significant, he is a freshman running for re-election in a presidential year in a state that Obama took the last tie, if after a hard-fought campaign in 2010 Marino is safe and sound in 2012 that means the 10th is looking pretty good for the GOP.
I asked about the presidential race, after all Paul Ryan had already visited the state and he told things look pretty promising for Romney, in fact he thinks Mitt is going to pull it off. I asked him if the lack of the voter ID law being enforced would hurt in that regard but he still thins Mitt is going to manage it.
Remember Hughey has been doing this longer than I’ve been alive, if he thinks Pennsylvania is in play you had better believe it’s in play.
And if it’s in play in 2012 WITHOUT the voter ID law to keep people honest can you imagine what will happen in 2014 & 16 when the “old-fashioned” tactics of the various city machines have a wrench in them?
Be afraid Democrats, be very afraid
(note this post will be cross posted as soon as my other site is back up)
Update: Main site is back up, I’ll be re-post this there later.
Update 2: Think Pennsylvania isn’t in play? Reuters disagrees
Ann Koberna, a Democratic activist and former school teacher in the Philadelphia suburb of Doylestown, did not need a poll or ads to see that support for Obama was eroding ahead of next Tuesday’s election.
She noticed it just after the first debate, on October 3, which boosted Romney’s national poll numbers after his strong performance. All of a sudden, she said, Romney-Ryan lawn signs started popping up in Doylestown and now they are all over the place.
Be afraid Democrats, be very afraid.