For those of you who are unsure of where this election is exit polls or no, this is going to be the give on election day.

If you read Bill Sharman’s Book on the 2000 election one of the things he talked about was the calling of states. If a state was going for George Bush, it too an interminable amount of time for the state to be called. On the other with Ad Gore the network took just a minute or two to call it, and remember when they called Florida before voting in the panhandle was complete.

Presuming they don’t pull a Florida 08 I predict you will see the networks holding back on states like VA like NH like FL any state that Romney wins in the swing crew will be held back as long as Ohio is up in the air.

They will call PA quick, I think the lack of the voter ID law give the left one last chance for good stealing in the cities so Hughey Woodring not withstanding I suspect they will pull it off and because of that PA will be called quick.

In the end Fox will be the one to call it for Mitt first simply because the other networks will not be willing to bear to do otherwise particularity as their skewed polls have been showing Obama leads.

In terms of final results expect to see 1980 but in terms of MSM reaction expect to see 1984. You will see them buoyed by exit polls that give more traffic from the left giving them a glimmer of hope but as the night goes on that hope is going to be slowly crushed. Chris Matthews & Ed Schultz will get angry, Lawrence O’Donnell will begin attacking at once, Soledad O’Brien will go batty and for guys like Van Jones, Paul Begala and Rachel Maddow the honnymoon for the new president will end between 5 & 10 minutes after the election is called.

It certainly won’t be a boring night and it definitely won’t be a boring 4 years

I’m currently inside the Verizon wireless arena as the public is just being let in to see Mitt Romney for the final NH Rally before election day, but before I came in I talked to the people in line. A gentleman from security told me the lines were the size Obama drew when he came here with Oprah four years ago.

I’ll be updating this post as I continue to upload interviews, but I think the story here are the people who waited in the cold to get in and see Mitt Romney the night before an election

I talked to Marty First

Then Fred who says he is a democrat:

Expect MANY updates

Karen and Nicole

Ray

Pareek

The most interesting person I would speak to didn’t give her name, she was an undecided voters to attended one Obama rally and came to see one Mitt Rally to make up her mind

But there is also Deb

And Tilvana (not sure if that’s spelled right)

Roberta

A group of folks held signs of Ovide Lamontagne one consented to an interview

I did a quick pan of the line outside

It would be several hours before people would come in.

Update: Here are the outside photos from last night Continue reading “The People waiting to see Mitt Romney in Manchester NH election eve”

The Moran Square Diner has been a Fitchburg fixture for decades host


hosting locals. Years ago Senator Edward Kennedy put away a Cheeseburger and a dog at this corner booth during his visit.

With election day 24 hours away Senator Scott Brown Bus came to Fitchburg

and after speaking to the crowd

sat in that very same booth

The Kennedy booth becomes the People’s booth

greeting voters and talking to people at lunch turning the “Kennedy” seat into the “People” seat as he seeks re-election and a full six year term to represent the people of Massachusetts.

It’s not surprising he would find himself in Fitchburg, and not just for the incredible breakfasts and lunch that owner Chris Giannetti has been serving to hungry customers for years.

or the hot chocolate that his daughter enjoyed after a brief interview:

good reasons thought they are.

It was because Fitchburg was one of the key cities that took Brown over the top, shocking pundits nationally and locally with his special election win in January 2010 which was the harbinger of the electoral pounding the left received 10 months. Inspiring GOP challengers such as Jon Golnik running in districts like Ma-3 where once the left once ran unopposed.

His 2010 victory remains a driver as the nation heads for the polls in 2012.

Gail Huff, wife of Senator Scott Brown greets a voter

It’s not an easy road. Incumbency is one of the few advantages Senator Brown brings to the race in 2012, this time around. Massachusetts remains a deep blue state (+25 registration advantage for democrats), instead of a special election with only his race to be decided he faces democrats above and below his spot on the ticket all trying to drive the faithful to the polls and finally he faces in Elizabeth Warren a person with a national following and reputation and millions of dollars to back her from some of the biggest donors the Democrat party has.

GOP candidate for Ma-3 Jon Golnik greets voters in Fitchburg before the Arrival of Senator Brown

These are tough hills to climb for Senator Brown and a source of comfort for Elizabeth Warren

But alas for Professor Warren, Senator Brown counters with two other advantages she cannot match for all the Hollywood dollars she may have to spend. He comes bearing a record as one of the most moderate Senators in the congress at a time where gridlock is a dirty word and “bi-partisan” is the favorite phrase of the media. He spoke of this in his initial remarks:

It’s very hard to condemn your opponent as an “extremist” when he votes against his own party 40% of the time.

Secondly there is Senator Brown demeanor.

Senator Brown has a well-earned reputation for listening to the voters no matter if they agree with him or no and being there when the voters need him. For years people on the right who wondered how Ted Kennedy kept his seat never taking into account his legendary reputation for constituent services. It is no accident that after being elected Senator Brown retained a fair amount of that Kennedy staff and shares that same reputation for listening to and taking care of the voters who sent him to Washington.

Senator Brown with a family at Moran Square Diner

This is why every poll of voters in the state during this race shows him drawing Democrats in numbers that no Republican in the country could ever dream of and why Fitchburg a city where, as Counselor at large Marcus DiNatale notes, Democrats have a 35 point registration advantage can be one of the cornerstones of Senator Brown’s re-election plans.

National Democrats considered this race their linchpin to retain the US senate in 2012, But as the latest polls and Senator Brown’s dogged campaign shows millions of dollars from the biggest elite donors from around the country will be hard pressed to counter a hand shaken in person and an ear willing to listen to a voter, any voter no matter what the party affiliation.

Democrats were shocked at Scott Brown taking “the Kennedy Seat” but as Senator Brown finished his meal in the booth once graced by his illustrious predecessor the left’s shock in 2010 is slowing becoming their resignation of 2012.

The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

Here is the line from the Poll


Leftist sites are rejoicing at a 3 pt lead with seemingly no time for Romney to change it, I’m sure Nate Silver is already boosting his averages.

Alas for the left, PEW also released their internals and even worse for them I haven’t forgotten how to do basic math so lets look at this last attempt to pretend something is true that isn’t.

First the splits in Party (click to enlarge) :

Pew interviewed 2709 people, 2611 identified themselves as either Republicans Democrats or Independents by their own count 843 Republicans, 1007 democrats and 761 independents. That works out to the following:

Democrats 1007 / 2709 = 37.1%
Republicans 843 / 2709 = 31.1%
Independents 761 / 2709 = 28.8%

So right off the bat we have a poll with a base advantage for Democrats of 6 pts. Even though both Gallup and Rasmussen have told us that the electorate is majority GOP this time around.

That would be enough to laugh this poll off but the mathematical legerdemain doesn’t end there.

All year we were told that this election was going to be who by he who took the independent voters. If you look at this new Pew poll who is leading among independents? Why lo and behold it is….Mitt Romney by 44% to 41% The GOP goes for Romney 91-7 & dems for Obama 94-5

But that doesn’t matter, apparently at this late date the independent vote that was so important just a few months ago doesn’t matter in election 2012 anymore.

That’s strike two but you need three strikes for an out, is there a third one? Guess what, there is!

If we look at the sample in terms of Gender did you know that the electorate in 2012 women are going to outvote men? As there are more women than men that’s not so odd, until you look at the margin… (click to enlarge)

Pew polled 1538 women vs 1171 men. That works out to the following percentages:

Women 1538 /2709 = 56.8
Men 1171 /2709 = 43.2

No wonder the women’s vote is so important! According to PEW apparently women aren’t going to just outvote men in 2012. They are going to do so in this election by 13 whole points! That is pretty interesting, particularly if you look at this chart from a pew study from just 4 years ago

In 2008 Pew reports a 4.2 point turnout advantage over men. Perish the thought, apparently according to THIS poll the 2012 gap is going to make that 2008 figure look positively miniscule…

…if you buy it that is.

OK that’s three strikes, but lets add a throw to first just in case this gets by the Catcher.

Let’s take a closer look at this sample, how representative of the electorate is it? Well one way to find out is to see how this group voted last time around (click to enlarge):

Well look at that a 13 point advantage of Obama voters vs McCain voters, but again this is registered voters, so lets remove those who didn’t vote so we can get down to those likely guys, what would the numbers be?

Obama voters 46 / 86 voters = 53.4%

Ok that seems to mean these voters President Obama took 52.9% of the vote so that’s a full half a point MORE than the president’s share of the vote in 2008

McCain voters 33 / 86 voters = 38.3%

Hmmmm John McCain drew 45.7% of the vote so this figure is a full 7.4 points BELOW John McCain’s vote total from 2008

That a 15.1 point gap in the popular vote that Barack Obama won by 7.2 points, MORE THAN DOUBLE the actual 2008 number. That’s a throw to first to end the inning and the game.

So this is what the Pew poll would have you believe:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

#4 A sample where the people interviewed supported Obama in 2008 by a figure double than the actual result should be trusted to show us how the electorate will vote in 2012.

There is a phrase to describe this kind of thinking, it’s known as “Willing suspension of disbelief”.

While that is dandy if you are a Doctor Who fan watching the Doctor reverse the polarity of the neutron flow, it doesn’t do a whole lot of good if you are trying to figure out how an election is going to end up in the real world.

The fact that PEW and the left is flogging a D+6 poll with a +13 point sample of women is funny, that this poll shows Romney leading among independents yet has Obama up 3 is funnier, that you are releasing a poll two days before an election that has a sample whose members supported Obama at double the rate of 2008 isn’t just funny it screams one thing:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

This is the type of thing you do when you’ve got nothing else, they’ve got NOTHING and we are going to beat them so bad they are going to wonder why they were so willing to sell their credibility on a candidate as bad as this president.

Update: If you think this is trouble for the left consider the new CNN poll. As Breitbart reports:

Moreover, the polls’s crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney’s 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie.

Here is the sample:

A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Media Credibility day not withstanding, if you are going to skew a poll with a D+11 sample to get a tie you might as well get a D+12 sample and give Obama a lead. If you are going to make a fool of yourself, why not?
It has Mitt & Obama Tied at 49, but only manages this feat with a +d11 sample