Polling vs Polling

by Datechguy | December 4th, 2012

Readability

Polling vs Polling

As a per­son of the right I’ve already expressed my opin­ion of what the House should do in terms of the “Fis­cal Cliff” although I absolutely love Glenn Reynolds’ ideas in USA Today which include Simp­son Bow­els, a plan to tax­ing the Gov­ern­ment revolv­ing Door and par­tic­u­larly his idea for Hol­ly­wood:

3. Make Hol­ly­wood Pay Its Fair Share. At the DNC, actress Eva Lon­go­ria offered to pay more taxes. Well, back dur­ing that Eisen­hower era that the Dems are so nos­tal­gic for, there was a 20% excise tax on movie the­ater rev­enues. It was estab­lished to help pay off the post-​World War II debt. Now we’re in debt again. Bring it back. For added fun, extend it to DVD sales, movie down­loads and music on CDs and over the Inter­net. As a great man once said, at some point, you’ve made enough money. If we need more tax rev­enue, who bet­ter to pay it than Hol­ly­wood fat­cats with their swim­ming pools and pri­vate jets?

but while these ideas are cre­ative there is one thing I have no patience for right now and that’s quot­ing polls right after an elec­tion:

Politico
:

A sur­vey of 800 Obama vot­ers, con­ducted last month by Benen­son Strat­egy Group for the mod­er­ate Demo­c­ra­tic think tank Third Way and shared first with POLITICO, finds that 96 per­cent believe the fed­eral deficit is a prob­lem and that 85 per­cent sup­port increas­ing taxes on the wealthy.

Yet 41 per­cent who sup­ported the Demo­c­ra­tic incum­bent want to get con­trol of the deficit mostly by cut­ting spend­ing, with only some tax increases, while another 41 per­cent want to solve it mostly with tax increases and only some spend­ing cuts.

Just 5 per­cent of Obama sup­port­ers favor tax increases alone to solve the deficit, half the num­ber who back an approach that relies entirely on spend­ing cuts.

CNN:

Mean­while, accord­ing to polling by CNN, reg­is­tered vot­ers oppose Oba­macare by a mar­gin of 10 points — 52 to 42 per­cent. Inde­pen­dents like Oba­macare even less, oppos­ing it by a mar­gin of 22 points — 57 to 35 per­cent. Clearly, vot­ers didn’t think they were rat­i­fy­ing Oba­macare when they pulled the lever for Obama.

Rass­mus­san

The Ras­mussen Reports daily Pres­i­den­tial Track­ing Poll for Mon­day shows that 56% of Likely Vot­ers at least some­what approve of Pres­i­dent Obama’s job per­for­mance. Forty-​two per­cent (42%) at least some­what disapprove.

This is the sec­ond day in a row the president’s approval rat­ing has been this high. This is his high­est level of approval since being reelected and the high­est since the ear­li­est days of his time in office

and Gallup

For the first time in Gallup trends since 2000, a major­ity of Amer­i­cans say it is not the fed­eral government’s respon­si­bil­ity to make sure all Amer­i­cans have health­care cov­er­age. Prior to 2009, a major­ity always felt the gov­ern­ment should ensure health­care cov­er­age for all, though Amer­i­cans’ views have become more divided in recent years.

Now it’s the job of polling com­pa­nies to poll but I think any argu­ment on what to do at this time based on polls are non­sense.

We just had an elec­tion. The result was the sta­tus quo. Any poll that says Obama vot­ers want spend­ing cuts is mean­ing­less because those same vot­ers choose the can­di­date who pushed for tax increases instead, as Mary Kather­ine Ham put it:

Too bad they all voted for the man who’s offer­ing a rather more unbal­anced approach than Republicans.

If the vot­ers wanted a Pres­i­dent who wanted spend­ing cuts, if such an issue was over­rid­ing to them, they would have acted dif­fer­ently, if they didn’t like the GOP House or the Demo­c­rat sen­ate they had a chance less than 30 days ago to do some­thing about it.

They did not.

I objected to the left argu­ing the GOP should fol­low their path based on polls in Decem­ber of 2010, I see no log­i­cal rea­son for any pol to base a deci­sion on a ran­dom sam­ple polling when they have the hard data from the only one that matters.

I fully expect Barack Obama and Harry Reid to act based on their vic­to­ries, I expect the GOP to do the same, what hap­pens next will depend on how clever they are in doing it. As far as the Amer­i­can Peo­ple are con­cerned they had bet­ter decide to like it.

As a person of the right I’ve already expressed my opinion of what the House should do in terms of the “Fiscal Cliff” although I absolutely love Glenn Reynolds’ ideas in USA Today which include Simpson Bowels, a plan to taxing the Government revolving Door and particularly his idea for Hollywood:

3. Make Hollywood Pay Its Fair Share. At the DNC, actress Eva Longoria offered to pay more taxes. Well, back during that Eisenhower era that the Dems are so nostalgic for, there was a 20% excise tax on movie theater revenues. It was established to help pay off the post-World War II debt. Now we’re in debt again. Bring it back. For added fun, extend it to DVD sales, movie downloads and music on CDs and over the Internet. As a great man once said, at some point, you’ve made enough money. If we need more tax revenue, who better to pay it than Hollywood fatcats with their swimming pools and private jets?

but while these ideas are creative there is one thing I have no patience for right now and that’s quoting polls right after an election:

Politico
:

A survey of 800 Obama voters, conducted last month by Benenson Strategy Group for the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way and shared first with POLITICO, finds that 96 percent believe the federal deficit is a problem and that 85 percent support increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Yet 41 percent who supported the Democratic incumbent want to get control of the deficit mostly by cutting spending, with only some tax increases, while another 41 percent want to solve it mostly with tax increases and only some spending cuts.

Just 5 percent of Obama supporters favor tax increases alone to solve the deficit, half the number who back an approach that relies entirely on spending cuts.

CNN:

Meanwhile, according to polling by CNN, registered voters oppose Obamacare by a margin of 10 points — 52 to 42 percent. Independents like Obamacare even less, opposing it by a margin of 22 points — 57 to 35 percent. Clearly, voters didn’t think they were ratifying Obamacare when they pulled the lever for Obama.

Rassmussan

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 56% of Likely Voters at least somewhat approve of President Obama’s job performance. Forty-two percent (42%) at least somewhat disapprove.

This is the second day in a row the president’s approval rating has been this high. This is his highest level of approval since being reelected and the highest since the earliest days of his time in office

and Gallup

For the first time in Gallup trends since 2000, a majority of Americans say it is not the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. Prior to 2009, a majority always felt the government should ensure healthcare coverage for all, though Americans’ views have become more divided in recent years.

Now it’s the job of polling companies to poll but I think any argument on what to do at this time based on polls are nonsense.

We just had an election. The result was the status quo. Any poll that says Obama voters want spending cuts is meaningless because those same voters choose the candidate who pushed for tax increases instead, as Mary Katherine Ham put it:

Too bad they all voted for the man who’s offering a rather more unbalanced approach than Republicans.

If the voters wanted a President who wanted spending cuts, if such an issue was overriding to them, they would have acted differently, if they didn’t like the GOP House or the Democrat senate they had a chance less than 30 days ago to do something about it.

They did not.

I objected to the left arguing the GOP should follow their path based on polls in December of 2010, I see no logical reason for any pol to base a decision on a random sample polling when they have the hard data from the only one that matters.

I fully expect Barack Obama and Harry Reid to act based on their victories, I expect the GOP to do the same, what happens next will depend on how clever they are in doing it. As far as the American People are concerned they had better decide to like it.

DaTechGuy on DaRadio Saturday Noon EST. WBNW AM 1120 Concord WPLM 1390 Plymouth WESO 970 Southbridge, FTR Radio, the 405 Media

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