I drove around a bit today visiting campaign location. Here is what I saw.
I also called around to contacts and I seemed to be hearing the same message over and over.
Democrats not all that enthused about Markey
Not much of a Hispanic Turnout
A very low turnout expected but in some areas not as horrible as they thought, slightly better than primaries.
Additionally I’ve been talking to democrats who have said bluntly they have gone to vote for Gomez and I’ve heard this more and more today, much more than expected not because they really like Gomez, but they figure they can give him a shot for 18 months rather than for a 36 year guy.
Put bluntly I’ve been seeing an awful lot of the Coakley type reaction from Democrats willing to either stay home or vote Gomez, but I haven’t seen the same enthusiasm for Gomez that I saw for Scott Brown.
There is also one other thing going on here.
Not a single democrat has any skin in this game, no city pol, no other statewide office no nothing. The only motivation for any person to go and vote for Ed Markey is because they either:
1. Like Ed Markey or
2. Hate Gabriel Gomez.
What does that mean?
It means he has a chance, and if enough of the tea party people like myself bit the bullet and turn out for him (and I’ve done my best to make that case over the last couple of weeks) he can win this.
The irony is if he wins it will not be so much because of the Hispanic vote coming out for Gomez, or for tea party people coming out for Gomez, it will be because the democrats and independents who bothered to turn out decided he was worth a chance for 18 months because they can always replace him.
Oddly if he loses a close one, it will almost certainly be because that small base of the party stayed home.
BTW the question becomes, Why didn’t I have this post up before?
1 All my evidence was anecdotal.
2. I know what side I’m on and unlike some in media I’ve never pretended otherwise
I’ve been calling people and trying to convince tea party people to turn out, that there were signs that things might be turning and the last thing I wanted to do is give the Markey people a heads if they had no idea this stuff was going on.
I’d rather shut up and help facilitate a possible longshot GOP win than to alert the Democrat machine that has the money and the manpower to get last-minute people out.
If some of you are upset because of this I’ll have to deal with it.
Update: Race called for Markey with about 80% of the vote, apparently pretending south of Texas and Florida is one giant country called “Hispanica or Latinia” is no substitute to actually having a candidate the inspires the base to work for them, and wouldn’t it have been nice to have a candidate that GOP workers and cash would have been willing to come from out of state to work?