Why Egypt Revolted Again: Totten & Big Pharaoh predicted it, #Hillary2016 did not

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Why Egypt Revolted Again: Totten & Big Pharaoh predicted it, #Hillary2016 did not

As the 2nd Egypt­ian revolt started hap­pen­ing and the peo­ple on the left started wring­ing their hands over the fall of the Mus­lim Broth­er­hood and the embar­rass­ment of Barack Obama (which is their real con­cern) the ques­tion becomes how do we under­stand what hap­pened and why.

Back in 2005 the great Michael Tot­ten was in Egypt and inter­viewed Egypt­ian Blog­ger Big Pharaoh and he asked him who would win in there was a free elec­tion

I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would hap­pen if Egypt held a legit­i­mate free and fair elec­tion instead of this bull­shit staged by Mubarak.

The Mus­lim Broth­er­hood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.”

I was afraid he was going to say that.

Big Pharaoh talked about how it would play:

My biggest fear,” he con­tin­ued, “is that if the Mus­lim Broth­er­hood rules Egypt we will get Islamism-​lite, that they won’t be quite bad enough that peo­ple will revolt against them. Take bars, for exam­ple. Most Egyp­tians don’t drink, so they won’t mind if alco­hol is ille­gal. The same goes for ban­ning books. Most Egyp­tians don’t read. So why should they care if books are banned? Most women wear a veil or a head­scarf already, so if it becomes the law hardly any­one will resist.”

He was exactly right about the Mus­lim broth­er­hood would win. As he pre­dicted they did what author­i­tar­i­ans always do when they win an elec­tion, con­sol­i­date power. Right after the US elec­tion dur­ing the Thanks­giv­ing week­end Pres­i­dent Morsi did this:

Egypt’s pres­i­dent on Thurs­day issued con­sti­tu­tional amend­ments grant­ing him­self far-​reaching pow­ers and order­ing the retrial of lead­ers of Hosni Mubarak’s régime for the killing of pro­test­ers in last year’s uprising.

Well that’s kind of a broad state­ment is it really some­thing to worry about?

The Egypt­ian leader also decreed that all deci­sions he has made since tak­ing office in June and until a new con­sti­tu­tion is adopted are not sub­ject to appeal in court or by any other author­ity, a move that places Morsi above over­sight of any kind. He already has leg­isla­tive pow­ers after the pow­er­ful lower cham­ber was dis­solved days before he took office June 30.

Oddly enough the MSM that is now scream­ing about the over­throw of a demo­c­ra­t­i­cally elected gov­ern­ment wasn’t all that inter­ested at the time. Per­haps because of Hillary Clinton’s praise of this same gov­ern­ment the same day

Clin­ton even announced the agree­ment stand­ing next to Egypt­ian For­eign Min­is­ter Mohamed Kamel Amr. She hailed the agree­ment as an impor­tant step to bring­ing sta­bil­ity and peace to a region that has seen major upheaval and trans­for­ma­tion in the past two years.

I noted the words of Bryan Pre­ston of PJ Media at the time:

The more real­is­tic view is that Egypt and Hamas are mak­ing the moves that both are mak­ing now because they have read Obama’s re-​election as giv­ing them space to act with­out fear of Amer­i­can inter­ven­tion on Israel’s side.

I’d say that pretty much right, but I dis­agree with the next paragraph

It is strik­ing, how unsur­prised Obama, Clin­ton, Rice et al seem to be by the Hamas bar­rage against Israel over the past fort­night, and by Egypt’s swift turn toward Islamist dic­ta­tor­ship. It’s almost like they expected these events to happen.

I don’t think it’s strik­ing at all. I cer­tainly expected Islamists to be on the move if Barack Obama was re-​elected.

And Morsi con­tin­ued on and Obama sup­ported him. Of course there were some inter­est­ing con­di­tions in the par­lia­men­tary elec­tions that we talked about at the time:

3. Vot­ing was not a pri­vate act – poll admin­is­tra­tors inside vot­ing polls asked vot­ers to state their choice and then observed their writ­ten ballot.

4. Poll admin­is­tra­tors know as “judges” (non-​military over­seers appointed by the mil­i­tary), after ille­gally ques­tion­ing vot­ers, issued unau­then­tic and invalid (unstamped) bal­lots to vot­ers who said they would vote for a candidate/​party other than MB or Salafi.

But the media wasn’t inter­ested in the reports from Voice of the Copts and the Mus­lim Broth­er­hood did their best to make sure they built a nar­ra­tive in Eng­lish so the west’s press would have some­thing to read.

I think this fel­low Gehad El-Haddad’s twit­ter feed is for lazy west­en­ers who don’t want to sort though ara­bic, I think it exists to build a real time nar­ra­tive for the west­ern world. As Ner­vana Mah­moud puts it in the Daily News of Egypt:

The Mus­lim Broth­er­hood is wag­ing a war of per­cep­tion, not just for domes­tic con­sump­tion but for a west­ern audi­ence, too. Per­cep­tion is cru­cial for two rea­sons: To defeat non-​Islamist oppo­nents, who may lose faith quickly when watch­ing the end­less num­ber of pro-​Morsy pro­tes­tors in com­par­i­son to their rel­a­tively lower num­ber in Tahrir and, sec­ondly, to con­vince west­ern nations that Islamists are the only reli­able, pow­er­ful force in Egypt and that they are backed by the “major­ity” of Egyptians.

That’s why Mr. El Haddad’s tweets are not in Ara­bic. If you con­sider how eas­ily the west bought the Hamas nar­ra­tive I can see why he would be sure to tweet “facts” in a lan­guage that the lazy west­ern press could under­stand but the major­ity of Egyp­tians would not.

Lucky for Big Pharaoh the Broth­er­hood was not capa­ble of going Islam lite and while the inter­na­tional press was totally taken aback by what hap­pened in Egypt he explained it clearly:

Pres­i­dent Morsi was elected because peo­ple yearned for change. The mar­gin between him and Shafik was not that big but still the major­ity chose change over a can­di­date who rep­re­sented Mubarak’s era. What we later dis­cov­ered was that Morsi turned out to be merely the Brotherhood’s rep­re­sen­ta­tive in the pres­i­dency and not the pres­i­dent of all Egyptians.

Pres­i­dent Morsi used his office to con­sol­i­date power for the Broth­er­hood which ruled Egypt as if it was just one branch in its regional orga­ni­za­tion. The insta­bil­ity in the coun­try can be traced back to his dic­ta­to­r­ial con­sti­tu­tional decree that granted him sweep­ing power;

That would be those decrees we decried at the same time Hillary 2016 was prais­ing the régime that we men­tioned above.

But there is more to the story:

The Broth­er­hood did not try to change Mubarak’s régime, they just cloned it and made it work for their inter­ests. The cul­tic nature of the Broth­er­hood orga­ni­za­tion, its ide­o­log­i­cal ties with for­eign enti­ties and regional span made it look as if it was “not very Egypt­ian”. Some of the pro­test­ers who took to the streets since last Sun­day refer to the MB as the “the Broth­er­hood occupation.”

But even an occu­pa­tion force might gain pop­u­lar­ity if they were able to turn the econ­omy around. John Guardiano put it this way.

And Big Pharoah con­firmed their ineptitude:

We thought there was a sheikh under the mosque’s dome.” Egyp­tians say this when they antic­i­pate some­thing big from some­one and then get noth­ing at the end. Before reach­ing power, we thought the Broth­er­hood were these great busi­ness peo­ple who will improve the liv­ing stan­dard of Egyp­tians. On the con­trary, we dis­cov­ered that the MB know noth­ing about the econ­omy and their eco­nomic pol­icy depended solely on bor­row­ing money from any­one who showed any sign of will­ing­ness to lend. We thought they were War­ren Buf­fets, they turned out to be Seven Eleven cashiers.

The Brotherhood’s dread­ful mis­man­age­ment of the country’s econ­omy and the polit­i­cal sit­u­a­tion was one of the major rea­sons why Egyp­tians can­not take them anymore.

So Egypt got Il duce with­out the trains run­ning on time, the worst of all worlds, but like any peo­ple stum­bling to self rule they had to fig­ure it out them­selves as Tot­ten put it back in 2005

I’ve had this the­ory for a while now,” I said. “It looks like some, if not most, Mid­dle East coun­tries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system.”

Big Pharaoh laughed grimly.

Sorry,” I said. “That’s just how it looks.”

Frankly I’m impressed that Egypt man­aged to fig­ure it out so quickly, as he is an Egypt­ian in Egypt I’ll leave Big Pharaoh the last word:

Why did Egyp­tians vote for the MB if they were so dread­ful? Well, they didn’t know. They did a mis­take. The Ger­mans voted for a mass mur­derer and the Ital­ians voted for a fas­cist. We have the right to make mis­takes too. We’re not bet­ter than the Ger­mans and the Italians.

I have to dis­agree, they appar­ently ARE bet­ter than Ger­mans and Ital­ians, they man­aged to fig­ure it out and eject their fas­cists before a world war.

I hope it all works out and the Obama admin­is­tra­tion doesn’t do any­thing stu­pid, like threat­en­ing to cut off aid now that the fas­cists of the Broth­er­hood are out

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Another week tip jar day and it being the 4th I don’t have high hopes. But on the plus side I’m now under $200 away from the full pay­check with three days to go. Ten of you kick­ing in $20 will give me that paycheck.

Remem­ber we gave you all this info when the MSM ignored it. How impor­tant is that info? On inde­pen­dence day how much is inde­pen­dent report­ing worth to you?

Con­sider kick­ing and in declar­ing your inde­pen­dence from the MSM

And have an enjoy­able and happy 4th of July

If you think I’m worth it con­sider hit­ting DaTip­Jar below.

.

As the 2nd Egyptian revolt started happening and the people on the left started wringing their hands over the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood and the embarrassment of Barack Obama (which is their real concern) the question becomes how do we understand what happened and why.

Back in 2005 the great Michael Totten was in Egypt and interviewed Egyptian Blogger Big Pharaoh and he asked him who would win in there was a free election

I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak.

“The Muslim Brotherhood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.”

I was afraid he was going to say that.

Big Pharaoh talked about how it would play:

My biggest fear,” he continued, “is that if the Muslim Brotherhood rules Egypt we will get Islamism-lite, that they won’t be quite bad enough that people will revolt against them. Take bars, for example. Most Egyptians don’t drink, so they won’t mind if alcohol is illegal. The same goes for banning books. Most Egyptians don’t read. So why should they care if books are banned? Most women wear a veil or a headscarf already, so if it becomes the law hardly anyone will resist.”

He was exactly right about the Muslim brotherhood would win.  As he predicted they did  what authoritarians always do when they win an election, consolidate power.  Right after the US election during the Thanksgiving weekend President Morsi did this:

Egypt’s president on Thursday issued constitutional amendments granting himself far-reaching powers and ordering the retrial of leaders of Hosni Mubarak’s regime for the killing of protesters in last year’s uprising.

Well that’s kind of a broad statement is it really something to worry about?

The Egyptian leader also decreed that all decisions he has made since taking office in June and until a new constitution is adopted are not subject to appeal in court or by any other authority, a move that places Morsi above oversight of any kind. He already has legislative powers after the powerful lower chamber was dissolved days before he took office June 30.

Oddly enough the MSM that is now screaming about the overthrow of a democratically elected government wasn’t all that interested at the time.  Perhaps because of Hillary Clinton’s praise of this same government the same day

Clinton even announced the agreement standing next to Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr. She hailed the agreement as an important step to bringing stability and peace to a region that has seen major upheaval and transformation in the past two years.

I noted the words of  Bryan Preston of PJ Media at the time:

The more realistic view is that Egypt and Hamas are making the moves that both are making now because they have read Obama’s re-election as giving them space to act without fear of American intervention on Israel’s side.

I’d say that pretty much right, but I disagree with the next paragraph

It is striking, how unsurprised Obama, Clinton, Rice et al seem to be by the Hamas barrage against Israel over the past fortnight, and by Egypt’s swift turn toward Islamist dictatorship. It’s almost like they expected these events to happen.

I don’t think it’s striking at all. I certainly expected Islamists to be on the move if Barack Obama was re-elected.

And Morsi continued on and Obama supported him.  Of course there were some interesting conditions in the parliamentary elections that we talked about at the time:

3. Voting was not a private act – poll administrators inside voting polls asked voters to state their choice and then observed their written ballot.

4. Poll administrators know as “judges” (non-military overseers appointed by the military), after illegally questioning voters, issued unauthentic and invalid (unstamped) ballots to voters who said they would vote for a candidate/party other than MB or Salafi.

But the media wasn’t interested in the reports from Voice of the Copts and the Muslim Brotherhood did their best to make sure they built a narrative in English so the west’s press would have something to read.

I think this fellow Gehad El-Haddad’s twitter feed is for lazy westeners who don’t want to sort though arabic, I think it exists to build a real time narrative for the western world. As Nervana Mahmoud puts it in the Daily News of Egypt:

The Muslim Brotherhood is waging a war of perception, not just for domestic consumption but for a western audience, too. Perception is crucial for two reasons: To defeat non-Islamist opponents, who may lose faith quickly when watching the endless number of pro-Morsy protestors in comparison to their relatively lower number in Tahrir and, secondly, to convince western nations that Islamists are the only reliable, powerful force in Egypt and that they are backed by the “majority” of Egyptians.

That’s why Mr. El Haddad’s tweets are not in Arabic. If you consider how easily the west bought the Hamas narrative I can see why he would be sure to tweet “facts” in a language that the lazy western press could understand but the majority of Egyptians would not.

Lucky for Big Pharaoh the Brotherhood was not capable of going Islam lite and while the international press was totally taken aback by what happened in Egypt he explained it clearly:

President Morsi was elected because people yearned for change. The margin between him and Shafik was not that big but still the majority chose change over a candidate who represented Mubarak’s era. What we later discovered was that Morsi turned out to be merely the Brotherhood’s representative in the presidency and not the president of all Egyptians.

President Morsi used his office to consolidate power for the Brotherhood which ruled Egypt as if it was just one branch in its regional organization. The instability in the country can be traced back to his dictatorial constitutional decree that granted him sweeping power;

That would be those decrees we decried at the same time Hillary 2016 was praising the regime that we mentioned above.

But there is more to the story:

The Brotherhood did not try to change Mubarak’s regime, they just cloned it and made it work for their interests. The cultic nature of the Brotherhood organization, its ideological ties with foreign entities and regional span made it look as if it was “not very Egyptian”. Some of the protesters who took to the streets since last Sunday refer to the MB as the “the Brotherhood occupation.”

But even an occupation force might gain popularity if they were able to turn the economy around. John Guardiano put it this way.

 

And Big Pharoah confirmed their ineptitude:

“We thought there was a sheikh under the mosque’s dome.” Egyptians say this when they anticipate something big from someone and then get nothing at the end. Before reaching power, we thought the Brotherhood were these great business people who will improve the living standard of Egyptians. On the contrary, we discovered that the MB know nothing about the economy and their economic policy depended solely on borrowing money from anyone who showed any sign of willingness to lend. We thought they were Warren Buffets, they turned out to be Seven Eleven cashiers.

The Brotherhood’s dreadful mismanagement of the country’s economy and the political situation was one of the major reasons why Egyptians cannot take them anymore.

So Egypt got Il duce without the trains running on time, the worst of all worlds, but like any people stumbling to self rule they had to figure it out themselves as Totten put it back in 2005

“I’ve had this theory for a while now,” I said. “It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system.”

Big Pharaoh laughed grimly.

“Sorry,” I said. “That’s just how it looks.”

Frankly I’m impressed that Egypt managed to figure it out so quickly, as he is an Egyptian in Egypt I’ll leave Big Pharaoh the last word:

Why did Egyptians vote for the MB if they were so dreadful? Well, they didn’t know. They did a mistake. The Germans voted for a mass murderer and the Italians voted for a fascist. We have the right to make mistakes too. We’re not better than the Germans and the Italians.

I have to disagree, they apparently ARE better than Germans and Italians, they managed to figure it out and eject their fascists before a world war.

I hope it all works out and the Obama administration doesn’t do anything stupid, like threatening to cut off aid now that the fascists of the Brotherhood are out

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Olimometer 2.52

Another week tip jar day and it being the 4th I don’t have high hopes. But on the plus side I’m now under $200 away from the full paycheck with three days to go. Ten of you kicking in $20 will give me that paycheck.

Remember we gave you all this info when the MSM ignored it. How important is that info? On independence day how much is independent reporting worth to you?

Consider kicking and in declaring your independence from the MSM

And have an enjoyable and happy 4th of July

If you think I’m worth it consider hitting DaTipJar below.

.