This morning when advising the Speaker of the House on how to talk to the people who are needed to win elections for the GOP I invoked Gabriel Gomez.  A name some of you might not know.

Mr. Gomez was the candidate for the Senate Seat vacated by John Kerry.  He has a great personal story and was absolutely loved by the national party due to this ancestry. However his positions on everything from amnesty to guns didn’t inspire the base and when it came to be election day Mr. Gomez not only failed to rally the base, but didn’t draw any of the Hispanic vote against the whiter than white bread a nice enough fellow, but whose positions neither inspired the base nor attracted Hispanic voters when the time care.

Right now a similar situation is going on in California in the race for Governor.

In California’s primary system the two candidates finishing 1st & 2nd run for the office regardless of party.

In the latest PPIC poll there are two GOP candidates who draw support in the Polling Former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado and State Rep Tim Donnelly.

Maldonado is running a campaign that might sound familiar to people who remember the Gomez race:

Former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, unveiling his new campaign for California governor Saturday, will challenge Democrat Jerry Brown as a pro-gay marriage, pro-choice and pro-growth Republican who vows to reach millions of Hispanic voters “who come from where I come from.”

and on Illegal immigration it will sound REALLY familiar

  “I’m upset that we can’t get it done. Because I’m the son of a field worker who came here with a temporary work permit looking for a better life…his son became the Lt. Governor of California. How can I not support comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship?”

*On a new law permitting driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants: “It had to be done, because Washington couldn’t get the job done. The right way to do it is comprehensive immigration reform, then no state has to go out there with piecemeal (laws).”

Meanwhile Tim Donnelly is taking a different path not running from either his 100% pro-life rating saying he is “proudly pro-life”  or his 0% rating from Equality California saying on Gay Marriage:

Marriage is not in the Constitution…I don’t believe the government should have anything to do with it.”

“I personally believe that marriage is a sacred covenant between one man and one woman, ordained by God. And it belongs in the church.”

He is not shy about his positions and expressed them forcibly in a conference call this week:  Strongly pro-2nd Amendment, opposes illegal immigration and rather than race focusing instead on issues like the budget “The mythical budget surplus hasn’t produced anything for the average person.” and financial issues that have stuck him and millions of voters “My 401 k turned into a 201k then a 101k then a zero k
So we pretty much have two different republicans directions in California, Donnelly  not shy about taking positions consistent with the GOP base, Maldonado on the path suggested by the MSM by taking positions more consistent with Democrats in a blue state.

Let’s see how that’s working out:

The latest PPIC poll is out and Governor Jerry Brown has 49% of likely voters approving his job performance with 38% disapproving with 13% undecided. As far as his personal fallibility of 46% with an unfavorable rating of 40%.

Of those likely voters 47% will vote for him in the primary including 50% of Latinos.

While it isn’t a good sign for a sitting governor and a man with decades of the name recognition that he has to be under 50%. 47% is more than enough to secure one of the two top spots in a primary.

How about that other spot?  Well California being as blue a state as it is, the pundits in the MSM and everyone else would expect Mr Maldonado to be easily outpolling Mr Donnelly particularly among the 50% of Latinos still up for grabs.

You would be wrong:

As you might guess for a state rep 15% of the voters have never heard of him and 70% have yet to form an opinion. but among those who know him his rating is pretty much a wash 7% favorable vs 8% unfavorable. Interestingly when broken down by party Donnelly is +3 among Republicans and only at a net -1 among Democrats.

He is currently getting 16%  of the primary vote.

Well that certainly can’t compare with a former Lt. Gov who is Hispanic , supports gay marriage, immigration reform and drivers licenses for illegal aliens in a blue state, can it?

Apparently it can:

Maldonado is only drawing 7% of the vote a full 9 points behind Donnally but when you break it down it gets worse for him.

Maldonado draws a full 14% less of the White Vote than Donnally and 9% less of the independent vote but the greatest embarrassment is that among Latinos Donnally out polls him by a 2-1 margin!

Mind you the only Latino who has held a higher office in the state is José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco who was governor in 1875.

How can this be? Maldonado as you might guess is better known, a full 14% more voters have an opinion on him than Donnelly unfortunately for him it appears familiarity breeds contempt.

Only 10% of voters have a favorable opinion of him against 19% who have an unfavorable one.

Among Republicans the gap is 9% favorable vs 23% unfavorable (a net -14 a full 17 pts. worse than Donnelly).  His more liberal positions aren’t helping among Democrats with a rating of 9% favorable vs 12% (-3).  Among independents it’s worse only 5% of independents view him favorable light vs 26% who don’t (-21 rating)! and democrats.

Amazingly Maldonado is known by almost twice as many independents that Donnelly yet the percentage of overall independents who view him favorable is two points lower. That’s a gigantic embarrassment,

at least it would be if he didn’t have a -7 rating among Latinos 10% favorable vs 17% unfavorable.

So what has Tim Donnelly a figure that has been attacked by some in the party figured out that the GOP Establishment and his critics have not?  Easy:

Running as Democrat light doesn’t win over voters!  If voters want a democrat or a liberal there is a perfectly passable specimen of the real thing on the ballot.

But if you advance conservative principles that everyone can relate to:  The economy, the 2nd amendment,  the rule of law, business regulations, issues that cut across lines of race, creed or sexual orientation, you can not only win elections but change minds.

That’s how a party change the direction of a state.  I hope someday we learn that lesson in Massachusetts…yet.

FYI Tim will be a guest on my radio show tomorrow at 12:15 PM if you want to find out more.

In the Holy Bible and in the New Testament, Jesus Christ made the following statement to his critics who leveled a charge against both His leadership and authority:  “A house divided against itself cannot stand” (Matthew 12.22-28).  Furthermore, President Abraham Lincoln quoted this same passage of Sacred Scripture during the height of the Civil War when he averred that “A house divided against itself cannot stand…”

There is no family, organization, nor any business or non-profit entity that can long exist if it is fractured from within.

As one observes the current affairs of the Republican Party, one could easily come to the conclusion that the Republican Party – the Grand Old Party (GOP) for short – is in a hopeless state of disarray.  Political pundits and scholars ask themselves the question:  Who speaks for the GOP?  Is it the business community? Is it the mainstream GOP leadership which is located in both the Senate and in the House of Representatives?   Could it be that the “Tea Party” and their proponents are the authentic voice of the Republican Party?

This writer heard Nicole Wallace – former Communications Chief for President George W. Bush – proclaim that whenever the GOP needs to rejuvenate itself, that it has historically looked to the ranks of their standing Republican Party Governors for future direction and growth (Bobby Jindal? Chris Christie?  Scott Walker?).   Perhaps in time Ms. Wallace’s observation will prove to be correct. Nevertheless, the question still remains:  Is there anyone who can give an accurate pulse on the current state and political future of the GOP?

While this writer does not claim to possess any clairvoyant powers, he does believe that perhaps a historical look at the Republican Party may shine some light on its current dilemma.

Let us go back in time roughly 100 years and then move forward.

First and foremost, the Republican Party – unlike its progressive  party counterpart – has always existed in a state of continual “flux” and “disunity.”  Most Conservatives of both the fiscal and libertarian garden variety types have generally identified with the GOP as opposed to the egalitarian / progressive vision of the Democratic Party.

Back in 1912, the Republican Party was fresh off having won 5 of the previous 6 Presidential elections since 1888.  The incumbent President in 1912 was Howard Taft (R) and he was immediately preceded by former President Theodore Roosevelt (R).  Unfortunately for President. Taft, Theodore Roosevelt missed the center stage of the Presidency and sought to wrestle the White House away from him.  Mr. Roosevelt’s coup attempt was rebuffed and with his failure to secure the Republican Party’s nomination in 1912 he sought desperate political measures.  He ran for President as a political independent of the newly formed “Bull Moose Party.”

Mr. Roosevelt won more votes than Mr. Taft, but the candidacies of both men enabled an obscure Democratic Governor from New Jersey named Woodrow Wilson to barely squeak by with enough electoral votes to win the Presidency in 1912.  (The Republican Party recovered and recaptured the Presidency in the ensuing elections of 1920 (Warren G. Harding); 1924 (Calvin Coolidge) and 1928 (Herbert Hoover).

Turn the page and fast forward to 1964.

The Republican Party found themselves embroiled in another state of disunity.  This time the two GOP factions at war were the Southwestern conservatives led by Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater and the eastern establishment wing led by Governors Nelson Rockefeller of New York and William “Bill” Scranton of Pennsylvania.  The eastern establishment saw Senator Goldwater and his conservative insurgency as being political extremists (sound familiar?) and illegitimate; when Senator Goldwater won the party’s nomination, the “eastern establishment wing” refused to support him in the general election.

In retrospect, Senator Goldwater would most likely have lost anyway even if the GOP was totally united (it is a dubious proposition to believe that the American people would have elected three Presidents in less than 4 years).  The refusal of the mainstream wing of the Republican Party to endorse Senator Goldwater and his conservative mates set off a series of events from bad blood, unforgiveness and hard feelings between the two factions which exist to this very day.

Interesting enough, two years later in 1966, the conservatives saw one of their own heroes become Governor of California (Ronald Reagan) and the mainstream establishment arm of the Republican Party witnessed a young upcoming congressman win a house seat in Texas (George H. W. Bush).  These two men would battle it out for the Republican Party’s nomination 14 years later in 1980.

Today, there is much discussion regarding the “Tea Party Movement” and its rise and influence within the Republican Party.  Some have said that the “Tea Party Movement” is an extremist bloc and unyielding.  Others call the Tea Party exponents unreasonable and fear what their influence in the broader body politic might mean for those who do not share their vision of limited government.

However, if history is any indication, the Republican Party will survive the insurgent “Tea Party” as the movement itself will most likely morph into either a Libertarian  or Socially Conservative block within the GOP.

The Tea Party appears to be infusing the GOP with new life – in a similar vein that both the Bull Moose party and the Southwestern Goldwater insurgencies strengthened the Republican party in years past.

Republicans have always fought one another and there is no reason to see the “Tea Party Movement” as some strange or new phenomenon to this long-standing practice.

Update:   DTG:  Highlighted Biblical quote in Red because they were the direct words of Christ.

…which says in part:

the point to be made immediately is that Fox News has functioned like a channelizing terrain feature in the informational battlefield. For the defenders of liberal media hegemony, all they had to do was to isolate Fox — identify it as a hostile force in the eyes of other media — and then to target both the network’s messages and its messengers.

In other words, a story that was damaging to Democrats or which undermined key elements of the liberal media narrative could be discredited simply by saying, “Oh, that’s a Fox story.”

Let me point out an example from yesterday:

Yesterday Congress held a hearing where Nagheh Abedini talked about her husband who has been a “hostage” in Iran since last year.

The wife of American pastor Saeed Abedini, a religious prisoner in Iran, said the U.S. government has abandoned her husband during a congressional hearing on Thursday.

Naghmeh Abedini told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that she was dismayed after learning that her husband’s imprisonment was not raised during the recent nuclear negotiations between Iran, the United States, and other world powers.

I spotted the hearings on Fox as I was channel surfing, they were being covered live.  I instantly turned to CNN & MSNBC to see if they were covering them.

They were not.  Stacy Again

Andrew Breitbart understood this tactic, and fought very hard to escape the “Fox Trap,” which is why he delivered one of his biggest scoops on the WeinerGate scandal — the Meagan Broussard story, which confirmed that Weiner was “sexting” with multiple women — directly to ABC News as an exclusive. If conservative messages and messengers can be limited to one media channel, and that channel reaches no more than a minor fraction of the total news audience, liberals win. It’s really that simple,

It doesn’t matter how moving her testimony is, it doesn’t matter how factual her testimony is, if the rest of the media is either ignoring it or giving it a throw away line as far as the American people are concerned it didn’t happen and Media Matters & Soros wins.

That’s why the multiple bi-partisan bills to open parts of the government didn’t matter to Harry Reid, as long as only Fox covered it, there would be no pressure to bring them up for votes.

That is why we have to fight the battle in the culture and that is where we have to win.

Update: PJ Media dissents

MSNBC has lost 45% of its viewership over the past year. Fox is the most trusted network in America on the biggest story of the day, the left’s collective dishonesty regarding Obamacare.

Meanwhile, the network that Media Matters claims to have defeated just swallowed a continent.

Fox News triumphed in the cable news ratings battle in November, grabbing more total day and primetime viewers than its two rival competitors — CNN and MSNBC — combined.

It marks the 143rd consecutive month that Fox News has come out on top, and it ranked second in all of cable for the month of November — behind only ESPN. It featured the top 14 programs in all of cable news.

Media Matters isn’t declaring victory, despite the Huffington Post putting their best spinner on the story. It’s waving a white flag.

I have never been hurt by what I have not said
Calvin Coolidge
Basil: This is typical. Absolutely typical… of the kind of… ARSE I have to put up with from you people! You ponce in here, expecting to be handwaited on  hand and foot while I’m trying to run a hotel here!
Fawlty Towers Warldof Salad 1979

Yesterday I gave some advice on deciding whether or not to support the Ryan Murray budget deal.  In my opinion judging the bill based on those factor and calling on your congressman and senator to vote accordingly is smart.

There are decisions concerning the bill that haven’t been so smart such as stuff like this:

House Speaker John Boehner went off on outside conservative groups Wednesday morning for pushing against the new budget deal.

“They’re using our members and they’re using the American people for their own goals,” he said. “This is ridiculous.”

Really Mr. Speaker, you’re going to use your face time to attack conservatives?  Let me give you some advice before you start giving speeches about Our members.

The reason you have a majority to be speaker , are invited to Sunday shows and have your press conferences covered  is because of the Tea Party that mobilized to elect that GOP majority

The reason you keep that majority is those Tea Party voters also gave the GOP the majorities in state houses when it was time to draw districts.

Turn your mind back to when you were first elected, you only were in the house for two years when Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh and the conservative movement gave the GOP their first majority since the 50’s,  but your predecessors would have different memories.

I wonder what Buz Lukens, elected in 1966 & 1986,  Walter Powell, elected in 1970, Tom Kindess elected in 1974 would have given to enjoy the support of those tea party republicans and those conservative activists.  What do you think they would have given to be in the majority for just one term?

It took great effort by an awful lot of people to achieve that GOP house majority that you preside over, and it will take more than Obamacare to get people to overcome their natural inertia to turn out to give the GOP the senate in 2014 and if you don’t believe me ask Senator Gabriel Gomez (R-Hisapnica) how easy it was to bring out the 50% of 2010 Scott Brown voters he needed to win or ask why former Senator Brown crossed the border rather than run in a state where he ran away from his base.  As Powerline said yesterday:

In all likelihood, he has the votes he needs to pass the deal. So why lash out at opponents within the Party? Does Boehner imagine a Republican majority in which groups like Heritage and the Club for Growth have abandoned the Party? I don’t, and certainly not a conservative majority. So why antagonize them unnecessarily?

You’re the freaking leader of the GOP.  If you’re pissed off, vent in private, let an aide leak something in background or do what I do, get yourself in front of a pinball machine and beat the crap out of it.  You don’t repeatedly go after conservatives group and by extension the base in that way and feed the MSM’s  “GOP base crazy/angry” meme that they will jump all over because let me tell you, if you become the minority leader unlike Nancy Pelosi the media will have no interest in anything you have to say.

And if you can’t trust your self-control in public then take President Coolidge’s advice and just be quiet.

No charge.

Update:  Added Waldorf Salad quote

Update 2:  corrected quote

Update 3: Instalanche, only six behind Charles now. Here is that Fawlty Towers clip I was talking about.

FYI at this moment despite a successful week I’m $183 behind the pace to make this month mortgage. I only need 62 1/2 subscribers at $20 a month to cover Da Mortgage & Da Magnificent Seven writers for a full year. If I can get those subscribers it would not only be a great Christmas gift for me but it would be one that gave back to you 365 days a year in 2015.




Update 4 Added link to explain the Hispanica reference

Here is the very funny audio version of the Farie Tale of the GOP and the Mystical land of Hispanica

.

Update 5: Mrs. Richards not withstanding it’s Fawlty not faulty

Update 6:  Pastor George Kelly of my Magnificent Seven writers elaborates on the (very) long history of divisions in the GOP in his latest:  A House Divided against itself Will not stand.