Tim Donnelly gets it in California

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Tim Donnelly gets it in California

This morn­ing when advis­ing the Speaker of the House on how to talk to the peo­ple who are needed to win elec­tions for the GOP I invoked Gabriel Gomez. A name some of you might not know.

Mr. Gomez was the can­di­date for the Sen­ate Seat vacated by John Kerry. He has a great per­sonal story and was absolutely loved by the national party due to this ances­try. How­ever his posi­tions on every­thing from amnesty to guns didn’t inspire the base and when it came to be elec­tion day Mr. Gomez not only failed to rally the base, but didn’t draw any of the His­panic vote against the whiter than white bread a nice enough fel­low, but whose posi­tions nei­ther inspired the base nor attracted His­panic vot­ers when the time care.

Right now a sim­i­lar sit­u­a­tion is going on in Cal­i­for­nia in the race for Governor.

In California’s pri­mary sys­tem the two can­di­dates fin­ish­ing 1st & 2nd run for the office regard­less of party.

In the lat­est PPIC poll there are two GOP can­di­dates who draw sup­port in the Polling For­mer Lieu­tenant Gov­er­nor Abel Mal­don­ado and State Rep Tim Donnelly.

Mal­don­ado is run­ning a cam­paign that might sound famil­iar to peo­ple who remem­ber the Gomez race:

For­mer Lt. Gov. Abel Mal­don­ado, unveil­ing his new cam­paign for Cal­i­for­nia gov­er­nor Sat­ur­day, will chal­lenge Demo­c­rat Jerry Brown as a pro-​gay mar­riage, pro-​choice and pro-​growth Repub­li­can who vows to reach mil­lions of His­panic vot­ers “who come from where I come from.”

and on Ille­gal immi­gra­tion it will sound REALLY famil­iar

I’m upset that we can’t get it done. Because I’m the son of a field worker who came here with a tem­po­rary work per­mit look­ing for a bet­ter life…his son became the Lt. Gov­er­nor of Cal­i­for­nia. How can I not sup­port com­pre­hen­sive immi­gra­tion reform with a path to citizenship?”

*On a new law per­mit­ting driver’s licenses for undoc­u­mented immi­grants: “It had to be done, because Wash­ing­ton couldn’t get the job done. The right way to do it is com­pre­hen­sive immi­gra­tion reform, then no state has to go out there with piece­meal (laws).”

Mean­while Tim Don­nelly is tak­ing a dif­fer­ent path not run­ning from either his 100% pro-​life rat­ing say­ing he is “proudly pro-​life” or his 0% rat­ing from Equal­ity Cal­i­for­nia say­ing on Gay Mar­riage:

Mar­riage is not in the Constitution…I don’t believe the gov­ern­ment should have any­thing to do with it.”

“I per­son­ally believe that mar­riage is a sacred covenant between one man and one woman, ordained by God. And it belongs in the church.”

He is not shy about his posi­tions and expressed them forcibly in a con­fer­ence call this week: Strongly pro-​2nd Amend­ment, opposes ille­gal immi­gra­tion and rather than race focus­ing instead on issues like the bud­get “The myth­i­cal bud­get sur­plus hasn’t pro­duced any­thing for the aver­age per­son.” and finan­cial issues that have stuck him and mil­lions of vot­ers “My 401 k turned into a 201k then a 101k then a zero k
So we pretty much have two dif­fer­ent repub­li­cans direc­tions in Cal­i­for­nia, Don­nelly not shy about tak­ing posi­tions con­sis­tent with the GOP base, Mal­don­ado on the path sug­gested by the MSM by tak­ing posi­tions more con­sis­tent with Democ­rats in a blue state.

Let’s see how that’s work­ing out:

The lat­est PPIC poll is out and Gov­er­nor Jerry Brown has 49% of likely vot­ers approv­ing his job per­for­mance with 38% dis­ap­prov­ing with 13% unde­cided. As far as his per­sonal fal­li­bil­ity of 46% with an unfa­vor­able rat­ing of 40%.

Of those likely vot­ers 47% will vote for him in the pri­mary includ­ing 50% of Latinos.

While it isn’t a good sign for a sit­ting gov­er­nor and a man with decades of the name recog­ni­tion that he has to be under 50%. 47% is more than enough to secure one of the two top spots in a primary.

How about that other spot? Well Cal­i­for­nia being as blue a state as it is, the pun­dits in the MSM and every­one else would expect Mr Mal­don­ado to be eas­ily out­polling Mr Don­nelly par­tic­u­larly among the 50% of Lati­nos still up for grabs.

You would be wrong:

As you might guess for a state rep 15% of the vot­ers have never heard of him and 70% have yet to form an opin­ion. but among those who know him his rat­ing is pretty much a wash 7% favor­able vs 8% unfa­vor­able. Inter­est­ingly when bro­ken down by party Don­nelly is +3 among Repub­li­cans and only at a net –1 among Democrats.

He is cur­rently get­ting 16% of the pri­mary vote.

Well that cer­tainly can’t com­pare with a for­mer Lt. Gov who is His­panic , sup­ports gay mar­riage, immi­gra­tion reform and dri­vers licenses for ille­gal aliens in a blue state, can it?

Appar­ently it can:

Mal­don­ado is only draw­ing 7% of the vote a full 9 points behind Don­nally but when you break it down it gets worse for him.

Mal­don­ado draws a full 14% less of the White Vote than Don­nally and 9% less of the inde­pen­dent vote but the great­est embar­rass­ment is that among Lati­nos Don­nally out polls him by a 21 margin!

Mind you the only Latino who has held a higher office in the state is José Anto­nio Romualdo Pacheco who was gov­er­nor in 1875.

How can this be? Mal­don­ado as you might guess is bet­ter known, a full 14% more vot­ers have an opin­ion on him than Don­nelly unfor­tu­nately for him it appears famil­iar­ity breeds contempt.

Only 10% of vot­ers have a favor­able opin­ion of him against 19% who have an unfa­vor­able one.

Among Repub­li­cans the gap is 9% favor­able vs 23% unfa­vor­able (a net –14 a full 17 pts. worse than Don­nelly). His more lib­eral posi­tions aren’t help­ing among Democ­rats with a rat­ing of 9% favor­able vs 12% (-3). Among inde­pen­dents it’s worse only 5% of inde­pen­dents view him favor­able light vs 26% who don’t (-21 rat­ing)! and democrats.

Amaz­ingly Mal­don­ado is known by almost twice as many inde­pen­dents that Don­nelly yet the per­cent­age of over­all inde­pen­dents who view him favor­able is two points lower. That’s a gigan­tic embarrassment,

at least it would be if he didn’t have a –7 rat­ing among Lati­nos 10% favor­able vs 17% unfavorable.

So what has Tim Don­nelly a fig­ure that has been attacked by some in the party fig­ured out that the GOP Estab­lish­ment and his crit­ics have not? Easy:

Run­ning as Demo­c­rat light doesn’t win over vot­ers! If vot­ers want a demo­c­rat or a lib­eral there is a per­fectly pass­able spec­i­men of the real thing on the ballot.

But if you advance con­ser­v­a­tive prin­ci­ples that every­one can relate to: The econ­omy, the 2nd amend­ment, the rule of law, busi­ness reg­u­la­tions, issues that cut across lines of race, creed or sex­ual ori­en­ta­tion, you can not only win elec­tions but change minds.

That’s how a party change the direc­tion of a state. I hope some­day we learn that les­son in Massachusetts…yet.

FYI Tim will be a guest on my radio show tomor­row at 12:15 PM if you want to find out more.

This morning when advising the Speaker of the House on how to talk to the people who are needed to win elections for the GOP I invoked Gabriel Gomez.  A name some of you might not know.

Mr. Gomez was the candidate for the Senate Seat vacated by John Kerry.  He has a great personal story and was absolutely loved by the national party due to this ancestry. However his positions on everything from amnesty to guns didn’t inspire the base and when it came to be election day Mr. Gomez not only failed to rally the base, but didn’t draw any of the Hispanic vote against the whiter than white bread a nice enough fellow, but whose positions neither inspired the base nor attracted Hispanic voters when the time care.

Right now a similar situation is going on in California in the race for Governor.

In California’s primary system the two candidates finishing 1st & 2nd run for the office regardless of party.

In the latest PPIC poll there are two GOP candidates who draw support in the Polling Former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado and State Rep Tim Donnelly.

Maldonado is running a campaign that might sound familiar to people who remember the Gomez race:

Former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, unveiling his new campaign for California governor Saturday, will challenge Democrat Jerry Brown as a pro-gay marriage, pro-choice and pro-growth Republican who vows to reach millions of Hispanic voters “who come from where I come from.”

and on Illegal immigration it will sound REALLY familiar

  “I’m upset that we can’t get it done. Because I’m the son of a field worker who came here with a temporary work permit looking for a better life…his son became the Lt. Governor of California. How can I not support comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship?”

*On a new law permitting driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants: “It had to be done, because Washington couldn’t get the job done. The right way to do it is comprehensive immigration reform, then no state has to go out there with piecemeal (laws).”

Meanwhile Tim Donnelly is taking a different path not running from either his 100% pro-life rating saying he is “proudly pro-life”  or his 0% rating from Equality California saying on Gay Marriage:

Marriage is not in the Constitution…I don’t believe the government should have anything to do with it.”

“I personally believe that marriage is a sacred covenant between one man and one woman, ordained by God. And it belongs in the church.”

He is not shy about his positions and expressed them forcibly in a conference call this week:  Strongly pro-2nd Amendment, opposes illegal immigration and rather than race focusing instead on issues like the budget “The mythical budget surplus hasn’t produced anything for the average person.” and financial issues that have stuck him and millions of voters “My 401 k turned into a 201k then a 101k then a zero k
So we pretty much have two different republicans directions in California, Donnelly  not shy about taking positions consistent with the GOP base, Maldonado on the path suggested by the MSM by taking positions more consistent with Democrats in a blue state.

Let’s see how that’s working out:

The latest PPIC poll is out and Governor Jerry Brown has 49% of likely voters approving his job performance with 38% disapproving with 13% undecided. As far as his personal fallibility of 46% with an unfavorable rating of 40%.

Of those likely voters 47% will vote for him in the primary including 50% of Latinos.

While it isn’t a good sign for a sitting governor and a man with decades of the name recognition that he has to be under 50%. 47% is more than enough to secure one of the two top spots in a primary.

How about that other spot?  Well California being as blue a state as it is, the pundits in the MSM and everyone else would expect Mr Maldonado to be easily outpolling Mr Donnelly particularly among the 50% of Latinos still up for grabs.

You would be wrong:

As you might guess for a state rep 15% of the voters have never heard of him and 70% have yet to form an opinion. but among those who know him his rating is pretty much a wash 7% favorable vs 8% unfavorable. Interestingly when broken down by party Donnelly is +3 among Republicans and only at a net -1 among Democrats.

He is currently getting 16%  of the primary vote.

Well that certainly can’t compare with a former Lt. Gov who is Hispanic , supports gay marriage, immigration reform and drivers licenses for illegal aliens in a blue state, can it?

Apparently it can:

Maldonado is only drawing 7% of the vote a full 9 points behind Donnally but when you break it down it gets worse for him.

Maldonado draws a full 14% less of the White Vote than Donnally and 9% less of the independent vote but the greatest embarrassment is that among Latinos Donnally out polls him by a 2-1 margin!

Mind you the only Latino who has held a higher office in the state is José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco who was governor in 1875.

How can this be? Maldonado as you might guess is better known, a full 14% more voters have an opinion on him than Donnelly unfortunately for him it appears familiarity breeds contempt.

Only 10% of voters have a favorable opinion of him against 19% who have an unfavorable one.

Among Republicans the gap is 9% favorable vs 23% unfavorable (a net -14 a full 17 pts. worse than Donnelly).  His more liberal positions aren’t helping among Democrats with a rating of 9% favorable vs 12% (-3).  Among independents it’s worse only 5% of independents view him favorable light vs 26% who don’t (-21 rating)! and democrats.

Amazingly Maldonado is known by almost twice as many independents that Donnelly yet the percentage of overall independents who view him favorable is two points lower. That’s a gigantic embarrassment,

at least it would be if he didn’t have a -7 rating among Latinos 10% favorable vs 17% unfavorable.

So what has Tim Donnelly a figure that has been attacked by some in the party figured out that the GOP Establishment and his critics have not?  Easy:

Running as Democrat light doesn’t win over voters!  If voters want a democrat or a liberal there is a perfectly passable specimen of the real thing on the ballot.

But if you advance conservative principles that everyone can relate to:  The economy, the 2nd amendment,  the rule of law, business regulations, issues that cut across lines of race, creed or sexual orientation, you can not only win elections but change minds.

That’s how a party change the direction of a state.  I hope someday we learn that lesson in Massachusetts…yet.

FYI Tim will be a guest on my radio show tomorrow at 12:15 PM if you want to find out more.