An Accident of War in Ukraine

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An Accident of War in Ukraine

Let’s make some­thing clear.

Any­one who says that either Ukraine, Rus­sia or the Russ­ian backed rebels in Ukraine were out to shoot down a pas­sen­ger plane at this time (Korean Air­lines from the 80’s not with­stand­ing) is out of their minds.

Any­one with any knowl­edge of how war works know what has happened.

One side (almost cer­tainly the Russ­ian Backed Ukrain­ian rebels) thought they had tar­geted an enemy plane and shot it down.

It is unlikely to have been an acci­den­tal shoot­down by Ukraine proper because they would have info on the flight path and any corrections.

The nor­mal and proper thing to do is an apol­ogy, cor­rectly call­ing this an acci­dent of war and promis­ing both even­tual resti­tu­tion but also reit­er­at­ing that the skies above Ukraine are in a war zone and peo­ple should act accordingly.

The rebels will not admit this because it is bad PR for their Russ­ian back­ers and for that same rea­son and because he has been feed­ing his own peo­ple false pro­pa­ganda con­cern­ing Ukraine Rus­sia will not allow this to be used.

The Ukrain­ian gov­ern­ment will call this a ter­ror­ist attack in order to get inter­na­tional sup­port. While they have an excel­lent case that the entire war is a Russ­ian cre­ation it would be inac­cu­rate to call the down­ing of the flight terror.

Mean­while this put Amer­ica in an odd position.

The US posi­tion of say­ing nice things but doing noth­ing has actu­ally worked out quite well, by not get­ting involved directly it has not put Rus­sia in the posi­tion where they have to inter­vene in order to save face, while at the same time it has allowed Ukraine who decided not to worry about what the west is doing to fight the war on their own terms beat­ing the rebels badly. They are well on their way to win­ning the war.

The US has to be clever here, the best thing to do is to push the actual truth. (Manslaugh­ter not mur­der) and to push the idea of both Rus­sia & them stay­ing out or at most sug­gest­ing that Rus­sia could, as a proxy for the rebels pay any indem­nity to the fam­i­lies of the dead.

If we decide to grand­stand if we make grandiose procla­ma­tion we might actu­ally make things worse.

If how­ever this admin­is­tra­tion uses sober level headed intel­li­gent diplo­macy we’ll be fine.

Uh Oh.

Let’s make something clear.

Anyone who says that either Ukraine, Russia or the Russian backed rebels in Ukraine were out to shoot down a passenger plane at this time (Korean Airlines from the 80’s not withstanding)  is out of their minds.

Anyone with any knowledge of how war works know what has happened.

One side (almost certainly the Russian Backed Ukrainian rebels) thought they had targeted an enemy plane and shot it down.

It is unlikely to have been an accidental shootdown by Ukraine proper because they would have info on the flight path and any corrections.

The normal and proper thing to do is an apology, correctly calling this an accident of war and promising both eventual restitution but also reiterating that the skies above Ukraine are in a war zone and people should act accordingly.

The rebels will not admit this because it is bad PR for their Russian backers and for that same reason and because he has been feeding his own people false propaganda concerning Ukraine Russia will not allow this to be used.

The Ukrainian government will call this a terrorist attack in order to get international support.  While they have an excellent case that the entire war is a Russian creation it would be inaccurate to call the downing of the flight terror.

Meanwhile this put America in an odd position.

The US position of saying nice things but doing nothing has actually worked out quite well, by not getting involved directly it has not put Russia in the position where they have to intervene in order to save face, while at the same time it has allowed Ukraine who decided not to worry about what the west is doing to fight the war on their own terms beating the rebels badly.  They are well on their way to winning the war.

The US has to be clever here, the best thing to do is to push the actual truth.  (Manslaughter not murder) and to push the idea of both Russia & them staying out or at most suggesting that Russia could, as a proxy for the rebels pay any indemnity to the families of the dead.

If we decide to grandstand if we make grandiose proclamation  we might actually make things worse.

If however this administration uses sober level headed intelligent diplomacy we’ll be fine.

Uh Oh.