SHREVEPORT — I don’t want to jinx anything but I think Mary Landrieu’s goose is cooked here in Louisiana. The beleaguered Senator Landrieu made a stop in Shreveport a few days ago to kick off the early voting period; she led a march through downtown Shreveport to one of the early voting locations. When asked about her prospects in the December run-off, especially since the Cassidy campaign has far outspent her, Senator Landrieu replied:
“In the North Carolina race, one of the candidates outspent the other four to one, and the candidate that spent less won, because it’s not always about the money, it’s about people voting.”
The most recent poll has Landrieu behind Cassidy by about 15 points, but she’s right: it IS all about who turns out to vote. That being said, it’s interesting to note this article in the Alexandria Town Talk by Bill Barrow who looks at the numbers:
In every one of Louisiana’s 64 parishes, Landrieu lost votes from her 2008 level. While that’s not entirely unexpected given lower voter participation in midterm elections, the depth of Landrieu’s losses compared with her Republican rivals is notable. She lost at least 5,000 votes in 21 parishes, at least 10,000 in nine parishes, at least 20,000 in four parishes, and 30,000-plus in East Baton Rouge and Jefferson parishes. Her smallest loss in an individual parish was 556 votes in sparsely populated East Carroll Parish, but even that was almost 20 percent of her 2008 total there.
There’s lots more of that kind of analysis at the link and it’s pretty revealing of things to come for Mary.
Ali Akbar, senior adviser to the Black Conservative’s Fund, is here in Louisiana helping drum up support in the black community for Rep. Bill Cassidy. Akbar told the LSU Reveille that in the preliminary election, according to exit polls, Rep. Cassidy garnered only 3% of the African-American vote – a number Akbar says is totally unacceptable. The Black Conservative Fund wants to change that.
Turn-out will have a lot to do with how this race ends up, but it’s hard to see Landrieu coming back from such an apparent disadvantage if the polls are to be believed, especially given the appearance that the national Democrats have given up on her. And if the above sign is to be believed, Shreveport, at least, is NOT with Mary.
To nobody’s surprise our friends in the press continue to paint the GOP in trouble because of the President’s unilateral action concerning immigration.
Considering that even SNL is now making fun of the White House this would be laughable, particularly since as Mickey Kaus notes this pretty much frees the GOP to go ahead and push forward border security laws which is the other half of the equation.
The most appealing cases — the DREAMer kids, the parents of American citizens — will have been taken care of. If it becomes clear that there’s no additional mass amnesty coming down the pike — certainly no additional legislative amnesty — the seemingly permanent non-legalization of the 6 Million might even eventually send a message to the countries supplying illegal immigrants that the days of U.S. amnesties are over, for a while. Obama’s decree was it.
One the low hanging fruit is gone so is the left’s most effective argument.
But while the political advantage might have shifted, it doesn’t change the two root causes involved.
#1. The Countries where these people are coming from stink.
Either poverty or drug violence or de facto federalism is so unbearable that you have people willing to travel hundreds or thousands of miles to a whole new country to start at the very bottom. Think of it, even being in the welfare trap in the US is superior to their situation.
Some might consider this harsh, but it’s a basic truth about all immigration. For all the pride I have in being Sicilian I understand that if it was so wonderful my grandparents would have stayed there.
#2. We don’t trust this president or subsequent president to enforce this or any law that’s passed.
While I think the whole parallel culture business is harmful in the long run for the US there is no real difference between the “Hispanic” immigrants coming from the south than the southern European immigrants like my grandparents. The vast majority are God-fearing hard-working people who are simply taking any advantage that the state offers them, an in a country of 300-400 million another 10 is a drop in a bucket.
The problem is the law, not the contents of the law but the political will of the government under the Democrats to enforce it.
If I thought for one minute that we would actually have a border fence, and enforcement of laws securing our border, I and most of the people I know would be willing to make a deal to legalize those who are here treating them exactly as if they just started the application process today from their own countries.
But nobody believes these guys for a second and given fast and furious, Lois Lerner, the Atkinson scandal, Benghazi et/al we’d be damn fools to do so.
#1 Is the responsibility for the countries where the people are coming from but #2 is the responsibility of the Democrats and the left, and as long as they feel they have chance of turning the Latino vote into the new black vote to secure power and wealth for the party they are not going to do a thing to create trust.
Because the longer they can keep large groups of Latinos are made peons of the state rather than having them reach their full potential the better Democrats like it.
This is the Shortfall for 2014. Can it be made up?
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