I speak to Brother Seamus Byrne at the Catholic Marketing Trade Show.
His web site is here.
We have all watched the news and seen week after week of commentary on the Iran nuclear deal. The coverage has gone everywhere from “walk away,” to “the best deal anyone could get.”
Walking away isn’t a good idea in this case, but ok I get it. I understand the sentiment.
This being the best possible deal isn’t a great way to approach signing onto something either. I mean seriously, if you walk onto a Hyundai lot and they want you to pay the same price as a Mercedes S series (north of $100k) you walk away quickly, despite the fact that it is the best deal you can get, but admittedly here we can’t really walk away.
To the President’s statement that the alternative is War, I’m not sure I believe that either, but ok I get that alternative is a possibility as well.
Here is the real deal, and I have this from multiple sources.
We have had sanctions in place for a long time which has stifled Iran’s economy in a lot of ways. Economic conditions have slowed their development programs on a number of government projects including those designed for military use.
Well, I have been talking to some folks in Washington and it appears obvious that the United States had two choices, sign the deal, or never get any concept of what is going on there again in any fashion. This deal isn’t much better, but one step at a time.
Who would have told us that?
Russia and China.
If there are international sanctions on Iran from all over the world these things work well. If Russia and China drop their sanctions and we keep ours what is the impact of our sanctions? In reality, if that were to come to pass, very little.
It is becoming more obvious every single day that there is an alliance growing between the Iranians and the Russians.
Don’t think that is right?
The Washington Free Beacon broke a story yesterday titled: Russian Warships Dock In Iran for War Training.
So now we have Iran wanting newer weapons, including ICBMs, all manner of enhanced military developments including a missile shield, the Russians who need an economic boost and would love to sell these things to someone (for oil perhaps?) working together.
Well, we had two choices. Sign this deal or have the old deal become so meaningless that it wouldn’t matter.
Now before someone calls me names I am not saying we should have signed it.
Let me rephrase the situation.
If we didn’t sign the deal President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry would have been left looking like the “uncool” kids on the international stage who wouldn’t let the big guy do whatever he wanted. They wouldn’t or couldn’t stand up to the Russians and say niet (no).
Why might that be?
Debt. Our national debt may be what has driven this. Could it be that the Russians and the Chinese threatened to dump US debt quickly for pennies on the dollar if we didn’t go along with it?
The federal government currently is roughly $18 Trillion in debt. That’s a lot of zeroes. Put another way that is $18,000,000,000,000 in debt (give or take).
We currently owe China $1.2T.
With Russia it isn’t nearly as bad its only $115B.
Combined that is over $1.3T.
If they dumped that much in US debt on the market at 50 cents on the dollar our economy would go into a tailspin like no other. The US dollar would have almost no value internationally and we would be in a worse place than ever before.
Perhaps this is the world’s first case of economic terrorism. I could be wrong about that, it might not be the first.
When I wrote the book The Last World War, a fiction novel about the world as Iran sets off its nuclear arsenal I never would have envisioned that we allowed it to happen. It appeared to strange even for fiction. The rest of the novel has been called horrific and given people nightmares at what could happen, but the initiation of that situation being us is just strange. The world does appear to be stranger than fiction.
In this case it becomes obvious that the United States is being told to do something or else. There is very little other reason to do this deal that is obvious in the evidence. Accusations can be made about the President being a sympathizer, or any of another dozen things we can throw around as conspiracies but I don’t think that is the case. This is a clear case of economic international pressure. It appears our inability to get our fiscal house in order has prevented us from having much influence internationally. The US is weak, and it is a problem that must be solved immediately. We have to get our economic house in order.
Back before the passage of Obamacare in the days when the Democrats had filibuster-proof majorities in the senate and an overwhelming majority in the House, there was a huge question I had this to say on some comments by James Carville on Obamacare:
Unless he knows about a special election that the rest of us don’t there are still only 40 Republican votes in the senate and the house has a very large democratic majority. Republicans can’t kill any bill the democrats are willing to pass.
What Mr. Carville wants is cover for his members and the ability to share the blame. If his people really believed this was the right thing to do they would do it. They want cover for this lemon, the Republicans won’t give it so he is trying to make lemonade.
Of course Ted Kennedy’s death and Scott Brown’s election changed that slightly but the point remained the same: (emphasis in original)
The democrats KNOW both health care bills are Lemons that serve their own special interests groups over the people they claim to be helping. If they thought for one moment that these bills were good or the country and/or a political winner, they would have passed them and eagerly took the full credit.
So they played the Fishbait Miller game and with some help from Bart Stupak gave some Democrats cover
The Speaker always carries a number of votes in her pocket,” he said, meaning that some members who voted ‘no’ would have voted ‘yes’ if needed.
“I had a number of members who thanked us after because they could vote no.”
As I look at the Iran deal I see the exact same thing.
If the Iran deal was any good, Democrats would be rushing to support in drove and republican in swing districts facing a tough re-election fight in 2016 would be hedging their bets.
But it’s not a good deal, it’s a horrible deal and that’s why we have a situation where the while house needs to get EITHER 34 senate democrats OR 146 house democrats.
Think about that, there are 232 Democrats in the congress (188 House &44 Senate) yet the White House can have as few as 15% of the total democrat caucus and STILL save the Iran Nuke deal.
That’s why I don’t think this is a big deal:
“After deep study, careful thought and considerable soul-searching, I have decided I must oppose the agreement and will vote yes on a motion of disapproval,” Schumer said in a statement weeks before he will cast a vote.
This tweet asks the question that matters:
Schumer says he’ll vote no on Obama Iran deal. But will he also work to get others to oppose it? And will he also vote to override a veto?
— Brit Hume (@brithume) August 7, 2015
I have seen no evidence that Chuck Schumer is making any effort to win over the 9 more Democrat senators that will be necessary to override a Presidential veto and absent such evidence I have to agree with Mike Parker:
— Mike Parker (@MJP1313) August 7, 2015
Bottom line, this deal is lousy and we are watching another Democrat Fishbait Miller moment and tough talk notwithstanding rest assured that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are going to make sure they give any democrat that needs it cover to vote no on this lemon.
And when the nuclear arms race takes place, they’ll be able to shake their head in public and point to their vote, with a little effort they might even be able to convince themselves that they really meant it.
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