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My GOP Debate Takeaways

OK I’ve had a few hours to sleep on it and here are my debate takeaways.

Win­ner: Main Debate Rand Paul: Despite not hav­ing much time in the early rounds won two seg­ments. Made strong cases for every­thing he believed and sold his posi­tions well. Accom­plished every­thing he needed to do, the only ques­tion is do peo­ple agree with those positions.

Win­ner: First Debate Lind­sey Gra­ham: Mem­o­rable lines , humor and again made the case first for a ground war against isis, the sin­gle most impor­tant issue for the future of the coun­try and for press­ing the Obama admin­is­tra­tion in the senate.

Gra­ham will get a small bump because he’s polling so low with Paul it’s harder because he’s mak­ing cases for things that many in the base dis­agree with.

Five inter­est­ing points.

My two “win­ners” are both peo­ple I dis­agree with.

Not only were there no bad debate per­for­mances in either debate but there was an awful lot of sub­stance in them (par­tic­u­larly in debate 1)

The debate was specif­i­cally designed to pro­mote con­fronta­tion . It did and the can­di­dates made the most of them. I’m sure to the rat­ings delight of CNN

While it was a very long night for the Can­di­dates it was even longer for the mod­er­a­tors who did an excel­lent job.

There wasn’t a per­son on either stage (even the ones I dis­agree with) that didn’t make them­selves more cred­i­ble it was like a con­ven­tion of British Sea Cap­tains from the Napoleonic Wars

Let’s go through the can­di­dates start­ing with debate 2 in sort of the order of how they did.

Marco Rubio: 2nd place Did exactly what he had to do, got noticed, had mem­o­rable moments and made excel­lent cases over an over. Gave donors a rea­son to stay.

Carly Fio­r­ina: Com­pletely jus­ti­fied her pro­mo­tion to the main debate stage in a sit­u­a­tion where he needed to do so. Strong answers, and played to the MSM expec­ta­tions and brought up the Planned Par­ent­hood videos which will play very strongly to the base.

Chris Christie: Reminded every con­ser­v­a­tive in the coun­try why he was so pop­u­lar before and used his time wisely.

Mike Huck­abee: Every chance he got she knocked it out of the part and really did a great job on the Kim Davis ques­tion not­ing the accom­mo­da­tions for Islamic Ter­ror­ists vs a Chris­t­ian Clerk.

Jeb Bush: A slow start but showed energy and reas­sured the donor class that was wor­ried with a friendly estab­lish­ment audience.

Don­ald Trump: Tar­get #1 of every­one there. Brought up two excel­lent points (hav­ing to be friends with every­one in busi­ness and the threat of North Korea) that had pre­vi­ously been ignored. Proved he could take a punch which is an impor­tant qual­ity in a front runner.

Ted Cruz: Like Huck­abee took good advan­tage of every chance he had to talk, if he had been given the chance to make his cli­mate change response might have been able to win.

Scott Walker: May have saved his cam­paign by com­ing back strong

Ben Car­son: Gave good answers but crit­i­cized for being low key. But that’s how he is.

John Kasich: The least mem­o­rable per­for­mance of the night, yet still a good one, seemed kind of a poor man’s Lind­sey Graham.

Debate 1:

Rick San­to­rum: A very strong per­for­mance, made the best case for a min wage hike (I dis­agree there) that I’ve heard so far.

Bobby Jin­dal: Really strong appeal to the base, very ener­getic again did the job he needed to do get­ting noticed.

George Pataki: Had the sin­gle best hit on Hillary in either debate not­ing that she was a Sen­a­tor from NY the tar­get of ter­ror attacks and still did what she did.

Short Term: Tac­ti­cal results:

Who was helped the most last night? Carly Fio­r­ina, she real­ized right away what the pun­dits were look­ing for & gave it to them. Lots of credibility.

Who was hurt the most last night? Ben Car­son, the media has spun this as a defeat even though he is pre­sent­ing him­self the same as he always was. The media tem­plate is to give Carly the push at his expense.

Long Term Strate­gic results:

Who was helped the most long term? Don­ald Trump: Not only did he dom­i­nate time and prove he could take every punch thrown at him but because nobody did bad enough to be elim­i­nated that guar­an­tees the vote will remain divided. The longer that’s true the big­ger advan­tage he has.

Who was hurt the most last night? John Kasich: Not because he did bad, he didn’t but because Jeb Bush did bet­ter and he is the estab­lish­ment Bush fall­back position.

A much longer post is com­ing about:

The flex­i­ble 14th amend­ment Kim Davis Birthright citizenship

Ironic moment of the night: Jeb Bush hits Kim Davis for not obey­ing nonex­is­tent fed­eral law while insist­ing he would not hit Col­orado for ignor­ing explicit fed­eral drug laws.

Most sig­nif­i­cant post debate moment: Frank Luntz group, nobody in the group said Ted Cruz won but every sin­gle per­son in the group was impressed by him. Con­tin­ues to play the long game.

Am I the only one who noticed.…The post debate inter­view with Don­ald Trump where he talks about get­ting to know his oppo­nents. I think it was rather reveal­ing & will affect the way he coun­ter­punch­ers in the future.

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I know you can get the MSM for noth­ing, but that’s pretty much what they’re good for.

OK I’ve had a few hours to sleep on it and here are my debate takeaways.

Winner:  Main Debate Rand Paul:  Despite not having much time in the early rounds won two segments.  Made strong cases for everything he believed and sold his positions well.  Accomplished everything he needed to do, the only question is do people agree with those positions.

Winner: First Debate Lindsey Graham:  Memorable lines , humor and again made the case first for a ground war against isis, the single most important issue for the future of the country and for pressing the Obama administration in the senate.

Graham will get a small bump because he’s polling so low with Paul it’s harder because he’s making cases for things that many in the base disagree with.

Five interesting points.  

My two “winners”  are both people I disagree with.

Not only were there no bad debate performances in either debate but there was an awful lot of substance in them (particularly in debate 1)

The debate was specifically designed to promote confrontation .  It did and the candidates made the most of them.  I’m sure to the ratings delight of CNN

While it was a very long night for the Candidates it was even longer for the moderators who did an excellent job.

There wasn’t a person on either stage (even the ones I disagree with) that didn’t make themselves more credible it was like a convention of British Sea Captains from the Napoleonic Wars

 

Let’s go through the candidates starting with debate 2 in sort of the order of how they did.

Marco Rubio:  2nd place  Did exactly what he had to do, got noticed, had memorable moments and made excellent cases over an over.  Gave donors a reason to stay.

Carly Fiorina:  Completely justified her promotion to the main debate stage in a situation where he needed to do so.  Strong answers, and played to the MSM expectations and brought up the Planned Parenthood videos which will play very strongly to the base.

Chris Christie:  Reminded every conservative in the country why he was so popular before and used his time wisely.

Mike Huckabee:  Every chance he got she knocked it out of the part and really did a great job on the Kim Davis question noting the accommodations for Islamic Terrorists vs a Christian Clerk.

Jeb Bush:  A slow start but showed energy and reassured the donor class that was worried with a friendly establishment audience.

Donald Trump:  Target #1 of everyone there.  Brought up two excellent points (having to be friends with everyone in business and the threat of North Korea) that had previously been ignored.  Proved he could take a punch which is an important quality in a front runner.

Ted Cruz:  Like Huckabee took good advantage of every chance he had to talk, if he had been given the chance to make his climate change response might have been able to win.

Scott Walker:  May have saved his campaign by coming back strong

Ben Carson:  Gave good answers but criticized for being low key.  But that’s how he is.

John Kasich:  The least memorable performance of the night, yet still a good one, seemed kind of a poor man’s Lindsey Graham.

Debate 1:

Rick Santorum:  A very strong performance, made the best case for a min wage hike (I disagree there) that I’ve heard so far.

Bobby Jindal:  Really strong appeal to the base, very energetic again did the job he needed to do getting noticed.

George Pataki:  Had the single best hit on Hillary in either debate noting that she was a Senator from NY the target of terror attacks and still did what she did.

Short Term:  Tactical results:

Who was helped the most last night?  Carly Fiorina, she realized right away what the pundits were looking for & gave it to them.  Lots of credibility.

Who was hurt the most last night?  Ben Carson, the media has spun this as a defeat even though he is presenting himself the same as he always was.  The media template is to give Carly the push at his expense.

Long Term Strategic results:

Who was helped the most long term?  Donald Trump:  Not only did he dominate time and prove he could take every punch thrown at him but because nobody did bad enough to be eliminated that guarantees the vote will remain divided.  The longer that’s true the bigger advantage he has.

Who was hurt the most last night?  John Kasich:  Not because he did bad, he didn’t but because Jeb Bush did better and he is the establishment Bush fallback position.

A much longer post is coming about:

The flexible 14th amendment Kim Davis  Birthright citizenship

Ironic moment of the night:  Jeb Bush hits Kim Davis for not obeying nonexistent federal law while insisting he would not hit Colorado for ignoring explicit federal drug laws.

Most significant post debate moment:  Frank Luntz group, nobody in the group said Ted Cruz won but every single person in the group was impressed by him.  Continues to play the long game.

Am I the only one who noticed….The post debate interview with Donald Trump where he talks about getting to know his opponents.  I think it was rather revealing & will affect the way he counterpunchers in the future.

*******************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you. If you think this is of value I ask you to kick in and help me reach my monthly goal $1834 a month or Twenty Two grand a year.

I’d appreciate it if you would hit DaTipJar




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That gets all the bills paid. Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Subscription level



Additionally our subscribers get our podcast emailed directly to them before it show up anywhere else.

I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what they’re good for.