The Trump Factor in a GOP House Primary election

Your first job is to get re-elected.

Sam Rayburn

If you looked at the Mainstream media Thursday evening and Friday morning there was a single theme. The Conservative caucus in the house was doomed, they were stuck with John Boehner and that if they force an election for speaker through a motion to “vacate the chair” they will create a speaker who will destroy conservatives etc etc etc

Such was the conventional wisdom brought to you by the same people for whom the conventional wisdom at 8 AM Thursday was “Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker of the house.”

This is exactly wrong.  The time for the GOP conservative caucus to strike is NOW, the time to make a motion to vacate the chair is NOW and the time to force the feckless GOP members to make a decision between the base and the establishment is NOW!

However everyone is ignoring a card, that the Conservatives / Tea People have, a card, a wild card, a card that they likely will never have  in play again.

They have Donald Trump.on the GOP primary ballot.

You see in a normal year, the Tea Party might manage to bring  a primary challenge to a sitting congressman and unless the congressman is very new or very weak that threat might or in just the right district it will only be an annoyance because their name recognition will be enough to carry them through against any unknown challenger.

 

But not in the year of Trump!

In the year of Trump a whole new set of voters will be going to the polls on primary, voters who are not loyal to the GOP establishment, a set of voters who look at the establishment that attacks with scorn, a set of voters who are ready to follow Trump..and people who pledge their support to him.

What happens if in such an environment a GOP establishment candidate gets a primary challenger runs as a Pro-Trump Candidate?

Suddenly:  You have an opponent that has instant credibility with that set of new voters.

Suddenly:  You have an opponent that is newsworthy to not only local media but national media.

Suddenly:  All those checks that Trump can’t take from donors for political reasons have a professed Pro-Trump destination that can accept them, checks that can be used to finance a pro-Trump rally in that district

Suddenly:  You have an opponent who would share a stage with Trump and might even get a chance to speak to a huge crowd.

and most frightening of all to a member of the GOP establishment in the house

Suddenly:   You have a credible well financed challenger ready to unseat you.

I suspect such a candidate would do anything to avoid such a situation, even support the freedom caucus candidate for speaker.
Now there are of course risks,  particularly if Trump suddenly collapses but the media and the establishment has been predicting Trump’s collapse for the last three months and it hasn’t happened yet and it’s certainly not going to happen before a GOP leadership vote.

And of course given Mr. Trump’s legendary humility there is absolutely no chance that he would want to promote congressional candidates who are specifically promoting and supporting him for president is there?

If the freedom caucus wants to move members of the GOP establishment this is the scenario that they should put in front of every member preparing to vote with Democrats to stop them.

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