Panic Numbers in the Quinnipiac Poll for Dems 32-34, 73-19

Readability

Panic Numbers in the Quinnipiac Poll for Dems 32-34, 73-19

Pseudo­lus: [to Hys­terium] Calm your­self down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Glo­rio­sus: I smell mis­chief here!
Pseudo­lus: It’s time.

A Funny Thing Hap­pened on the way to the Forum 1966

Given how far off the polls were in Ken­tucky it might seem odd to talk about the impor­tance of poll, par­tic­u­larly this far out from elec­tion day but as I looked at the inter­nals of the Quin­nip­iac poll which tells us that Cruz, Christie Car­son and Rubio all beat Hillary head to head from any­where from 310 pts and found there were num­bers that you need to know when it comes to this poll.

3432

That is the ratio of Democ­rats to repub­li­cans in this poll. That’s a two point advan­tage for democ­rats. That mat­ters because accord­ing to gal­lop the spread is actu­ally a 4 point demo­c­rat advan­tage. This could mean one of two things:

Repub­li­cans were over sam­pled which means the polls are slightly closer that they appear

The Gap between repub­li­cans and democ­rats is closing.

If it’s the first then it means that other than Ben Car­son Hillary is actu­ally within the mar­gin or error on Rubio, Cruz and Christie which is still not a good thing but it doesn’t mean that it’s time for Democ­rats to panic.

If it’s the 2nd, then it’s time for the Democ­rats to panic

While that set of num­bers might be a source of gen­eral panic for democ­rats there is a 2nd spe­cific set up num­bers con­cern­ing a spe­cific can­di­date that should bother them very much.

7319

That is the split of the Black Vote if the can­di­dates for Pres­i­dent are Hillary Clin­ton for the Democ­rats (73) and Ben Car­son for repub­li­cans (19)

Now by any nor­mal mea­sure win­ning a group by a 54% mar­gin would make you feel pretty good, but for Democ­rats this is a disaster.

The days when a Demo­c­rat can win the pres­i­dency with only 73% of the black vote is long gone and as for a repub­li­can win­ning 19% of the black vote, you have to go back to Nixon in 1960 (32%) to see any num­ber near that 19% and that year Nixon only won 49 of the White vote.

Now I’m a Ted Cruz guy but I’m telling you right now Democ­rats are ter­ri­fied of Ben Car­son and will do all they can to destroy him because if he is the nom­i­nee or even on the ticket you can’t guar­an­tee the num­bers in the black com­mu­nity that the left needs to win.

If I was the Democ­rats, I’d be scared, very scared.

Exit ques­tion, pic­ture a Carson/​Cruz or a Cruz/​Carson ticket. If you are a local Demo­c­rat machine, do you risk pro­vid­ing trans­porta­tion to black and his­panic vot­ers who might inside the booth decide to vote their race rather than their party?

****************************************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2015 is $22,000

and to date we’re only at $4400

Given that fact I would I ask you to please con­sider hit­ting DaTipJar.




[olimome­ter id=14]

That gets all the bills paid. Con­sider Sub­scrib­ing 100 Sub­scribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Sub­scrip­tion level



Addi­tion­ally our sub­scribers get our pod­cast emailed directly to them before it show up any­where else.

I know you can get the MSM for noth­ing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

Given how far off the polls were in Kentucky it might seem odd to talk about the importance of  poll, particularly this far out from election day but as I looked at the internals of the Quinnipiac poll which tells us that Cruz, Christie Carson and Rubio all beat Hillary head to head from anywhere from 3-10 pts and found there were  numbers that you need to know when it comes to this poll.

34-32

That is the ratio of Democrats to republicans in this poll.  That’s a two point advantage for democrats.  That matters because according to gallop the spread is actually a 4 point democrat advantage.  This could mean one of two things:

 Republicans were over sampled which means the polls are slightly closer that they appear

The Gap between republicans and democrats is closing.

If it’s the first then it means that other than Ben Carson Hillary is actually within the margin or error on Rubio, Cruz and Christie which is still not a good thing but it doesn’t mean that it’s time for Democrats to panic.

If it’s the 2nd, then it’s time for the Democrats to panic

While that set of numbers might be a source of general panic for democrats there is a 2nd specific set up numbers  concerning a specific candidate that should bother them very much.

73-19

That is the split of the Black Vote if the candidates for President are Hillary Clinton for the Democrats (73) and Ben Carson for republicans (19)

Now by any normal measure winning a group by a 54% margin would make you feel pretty good, but for Democrats this is a disaster.

The days when a Democrat can win the presidency with only 73% of the black vote is long gone and as for a republican winning 19% of the black vote, you have to go back to Nixon in 1960 (32%) to see any number near that 19% and that year Nixon only won 49 of the White vote.

Now I’m a Ted Cruz guy but I’m telling you right now Democrats are terrified of Ben Carson and will do all they can to destroy him because if he is the nominee or even on the ticket you can’t guarantee the numbers in the black community that the left needs to win.

If I was the Democrats, I’d be scared, very scared.

Exit question, picture a Carson/Cruz or a Cruz/Carson ticket.  If you are a local Democrat machine, do you risk providing transportation to black and hispanic voters who might inside the booth decide to vote their race rather than their party?

****************************************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2015 is $22,000

and to date we’re only at $4400

Given that fact I would I ask you to please consider hitting DaTipJar.




Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Subscription level



Additionally our subscribers get our podcast emailed directly to them before it show up anywhere else.

I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.