Remember in 2008 & 2012 when the conservative vote was split between so many candidates that a John McCain & Mitt Romney could win the election?

Well turnabout is fair play:

If you want to stop Trump in New Hampshire, you need center-right voters there to coalesce behind the strongest candidate from that lane. Right now that appears to be Rubio. The problem is, Rubio’s only a few points better than everyone else: He’s at 11 percent here versus nine for Kasich, eight for Jeb Bush, and four each for Christie and Carly Fiorina. What incentive do any of those people have to quit the race and unite behind a single Trump-killing competitor before New Hampshire votes?

The three candidates who have dropped out so far are conservatives, between this and the Trump surge the tables have been completely reversed.

The longer these guys are in the more likely we’ll end up with a conservative

mathishardby baldilocks

It was difficult to believe at first; that there are functioning adults who don’t understand the difference between raw numbers and rate.

However, since I found out that children aren’t taught anymore to do things like write in cursive and since I found out that there are young Americans who cannot identify the United States on a map, I’ve pretty much figured out that K-12 schools are, for a significant part, just glorified day-care — and from what we’re seen in the last few weeks, that day-care can last well into higher education.

So you pay the government to educate your kid and it doesn’t. Then you pay thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars to some college/university, and all your offspring learn how to do is to refine their whining skills.

But you come here to Da Tech Guy blog and I’ll give you and your kid something useful.

Here’s your mini-tutorial on how to calculate the rate of a group and how to compare two separate rates.

  • Say you have a group of 1100 composed of 1000 Chinese and 100 Russians.
  • 200 of the Chinese are murderers and 50 of the Russians are murderers.
  • Therefore, in our sample, there are more murderers who are Chinese than those who are Russians in raw numbers.
  • However, the rate of Russian murderers is higher than that of Chinese murderers. How is that calculated?
  • Chinese: 200 divided by 1000 = 0.20=20%
  • Russians: 50 divided by 100 = 0.50=50%
That means that there is a higher rate of murders among the Russian part of this fictional group than there is among the Chinese part.

Lots of people don’t get this, even a few who were educated before my time. However, some of us were paying baldilocksattention during eighth grade math class.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng blogs at baldilocks. (Her older blog is located here.) Her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game, was published in 2012. Her second novel, tentatively titled, Arlen’s Harem, will be done in 2016. Follow her on Twitter.

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Captain Renault:How extravagant you are, throwing away women like that. Someday they may be scarce

Casablanca 1942

One of the basic rules of elections is you win by getting more votes than the other person.

Now there are two ways of doing this, the first is to explain why your candidate is better than the other guy.

But if your candidate is a dud then you do stuff like this:

Matt David, the spokesperson for the Kasich Super-PAC “New Day for America”, is now publicly reporting that both Team Bush and Team Rubio donors have pledged financial support to the effort to tear down front runner Donald Trump.

The upper echelons within the Wall Street financially-dependent corporate media have also held their meeting to coordinate how they will distribute and promote the anti-Trump narrative.

Most of the self-interests within the republican side of the professional political establishment have now united:  Wall Street (financiers), Ground Troops (via campaign teams), and Corporate Media (messaging/optics).

Tonight, as incredulous as it sounds, Professional Republicans begin a full month long assault upon the front runner of their own party. 

Three things instantly come to mind when reading this:

  1.  While I think this is stupid it’s also the way the political game is occasionally played and how Trump deals with it will speak to his ability as a candidate
  2. As long as Trump continues to use free media to his advantage this money is going to be as well spent as the attempt to promote New Coke.
  3. It’s generally a bad idea to get a man with billions to spend pissed off at you before an election.

But while I think this concerted effort to hit Trump by the GOP is a bad idea (and that the establishment would like a Trump presidency more than a Cruz one) for sheer stupidity you can’t do better than republicans & conservatives openly mocking Trump voters.

This is Scott Brown in 2012 and 2014, This is Mitt Romney in the General election vs Obama, this is Gabriel Gomez in the special senate election in Massachusetts and the last NH Gov Race.  All of them lost because they decided that either Tea Party or 2nd Amendment or Ron Paul voters were not necessary to bring them to the finish line.

In each case the candidate their team and the party establishment decided they could do without a part of the electorate and in each case the candidate paid the price.

I have no problem with people critiquing Donald Trump the Candidate, I have no problem with people making the arguments why he would be an inferior general election candidate, why he might be an opposition research wet dream, and questioning exactly what a deal maker would be willing to trade away when making a deal.

But when you attack the voters who are now paying attention these days, voters who are now questioning the MSM and getting energized thanks to Donald Trump, you are throwing away part of your customer base.

Ask if that’s been working out for Stephen Colbert these days.

The Democrats are not going to give up the graft and power and money that holding the White House allows them, they are going to use every trick in the book legal or otherwise to do so.  To win this election the GOP is going to need to outpoll Hillary beyond the margin of theft.

That’s going to require every single vote you can get, including those from the Trump supporters that you think are idiots.  They are your customers and any person who knows a thing about business knows you treat your customers with respect or else.


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