Pastor Kelly & Nate Silver help decode the GOP Establishment

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Pastor Kelly & Nate Silver help decode the GOP Establishment

This morn­ing while fig­ur­ing out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapun­dit and linked to a piece by Nate Sil­ver at Five Thirty Eight on Don­ald Trump & Polls titled One less rea­son to be skep­ti­cal of Trump.

He listed rea­sons to be skep­ti­cal of Trump suc­cess and added one that was not data dri­ven say­ing he expected the GOP Estab­lish­ment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s mak­ing such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The gov­er­nor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cat­a­clysmic” losses if Cruz was the nom­i­nee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Repub­li­cans sen­a­tors have been decid­edly unhelp­ful to Cruz when dis­cussing his con­sti­tu­tional eli­gi­bil­ity to be president.
  • An anti-​Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run adver­tise­ments in Iowa. (By con­trast, no PAC adver­tis­ing has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other exam­ples like these. It’s the type of coor­di­nated, mul­ti­front action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected some­thing like this to hap­pen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assump­tions. Thus, I’m now much less skep­ti­cal of Trump’s chances of becom­ing the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pas­tor George Kelly’s of my mag­nif­i­cent seven’s piece Is he or She a Con­ser­v­a­tive. It’s the piece that pre­cedes the one you’re read­ing now on this blog and notes the records of four can­di­dates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Car­son. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am think­ing of here.

  • Sena­tor Marco Rubio pos­sesses a life­time (ACU) score of 98%. One would ven­ture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impec­ca­ble con­ser­v­a­tive cre­den­tials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Sen­a­tor Rubio com­mit­ted for many Immi­gra­tion Hawks the unpar­don­able sin by sup­port­ing the GANG of 8’s Immi­gra­tion Reform mea­sures. For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Secu­rity Conservatives.

Nev­er­the­less, Mr. Rubio has been in the Sen­ate for four (4) years and his vot­ing record and pub­lic ser­vice tes­tify that he is a True Conservative.

State Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives when he mounted a race for the US Sen­ate and ran against for­mer Repub­li­can Gov­er­nor Char­lie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Con­ser­v­a­tive; this writer is shocked and some­what baf­fled over how any­one could call Marco Rubio “an estab­lish­ment Republican.”

I’ve actu­ally won­dered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his sup­port­ers) instead of just say­ing. Boy I tanked that didn’t I? Pas­tor Kelly con­tin­ues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Sen­a­tor Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impres­sive: Sen­a­tor Cruz has a life­time rat­ing of 100%! This is an astound­ing vot­ing per­cent­age (two years of Sen­a­to­r­ial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intel­lec­tual won­der who grad­u­ated with dis­tinc­tion from both Prince­ton and Har­vard Law School.

A sim­i­lar­ity of both Sen­a­tors reminds Con­ser­v­a­tives of how far they have come since Pres­i­dent Obama became Pres­i­dent: Both of these Sen­a­tors are prod­ucts of “The Tea Party Move­ment”; and both men ran against the Repub­li­can establishment.

A brief look at the two young Sen­a­tors (Rubio & Cruz) is a tes­ti­mony to the Intel­lec­tual and Polit­i­cal trans­for­ma­tion that has affected our nation since William F. Buck­ley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Mis­ters Rubio and Cruz are cer­ti­fi­ably “CON­SER­V­A­TIVE!

Now lets con­sider one other thing. As Mr. Sil­ver the party estab­lish­ment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa. At the same time the big money super­pac for THE estab­lish­ment can­di­date Jeb Bush who is floun­der­ing in both Iowa and NH and cur­rently run­ning 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an adver­tis­ing blitz in NH going all out attack­ing not Don­ald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is sup­ported by the Sununu fam­ily one tra­di­tional Bush fam­ily allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Estab­lish­ment GOP is still look­ing to nom­i­nate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only can­di­date stand­ing as an alter­na­tive to Trump, the they can go all in against him. Cruz gets the big guns atten­tion because of his huge hard money advan­tage and incred­i­ble exist­ing grass roots ground game in half the pri­mary states already & Rubio is left to Jeb’s mon­ey­bags on the the­ory that with­out a strong Iowa/​NH show­ing he’ll can’t sus­tain his cam­paign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat after­wards leav­ing it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no cir­cum­stances can a con­ser­v­a­tive with the vot­ing record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be pres­i­dent. For­get that both would be the first His­panic to lead a major party ticket, for­get Rubio’s gang of eight stuff. We can’t take the chance that a tea party can­di­date be the head of the party par­tic­u­larly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inabil­ity of any­one to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s lat­est ad is dev­as­tat­ing) It’s pos­si­ble that #1 is only Jeb plan. After all the GOP estab­lish­ment might be prag­mat­i­cally think­ing that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get some­thing for it rather than later when it means noth­ing and his coop­er­a­tion with their pri­or­i­ties will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP estab­lish­ment in Wash­ing­ton , Mass­a­chu­setts and par­tic­u­larly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

****************************************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you and as I’ll miss at least one more day of work as walk­ing, stand­ing drink­ing & smil­ing are still not back to work­ing nor­mally I would I ask you to please con­sider hit­ting DaTipJar.




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This morning while figuring out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapundit and linked to a piece by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight on Donald Trump & Polls titled One less reason to be skeptical of Trump.

He listed reasons to be skeptical of Trump success and added one that was not data driven saying he expected the GOP Establishment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
  • An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pastor George Kelly’s of my magnificent seven’s piece Is he or She a Conservative.  It’s the piece that precedes the one you’re reading now on this blog and notes the records of four candidates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am thinking of here.

  • Senator Marco Rubio possesses a lifetime (ACU) score of 98%. One would venture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impeccable conservative credentials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Senator Rubio committed for many Immigration Hawks the unpardonable sin by supporting the GANG of 8’s Immigration Reform measures.  For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Security Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Mr. Rubio has been in the Senate for four (4) years and his voting record and public service testify that he is a True Conservative.

State Representative Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives when he mounted a race for the US Senate and ran against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Conservative; this writer is shocked and somewhat baffled over how anyone could call Marco Rubio “an establishment Republican.”

I’ve actually wondered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his supporters) instead of just saying.  Boy I tanked that didn’t I?  Pastor Kelly continues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Senator Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impressive: Senator Cruz has a lifetime rating of 100%!  This is an astounding voting percentage (two years of Senatorial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intellectual wonder who graduated with distinction from both Princeton and Harvard Law School.

A similarity of both Senators reminds Conservatives of how far they have come since President Obama became President:  Both of these Senators are products of “The Tea Party Movement”; and both men ran against the Republican establishment.

A brief look at the two young Senators (Rubio & Cruz) is a testimony to the Intellectual and Political transformation that has affected our nation since William F. Buckley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Misters Rubio and Cruz are certifiably “CONSERVATIVE!

Now lets consider one other thing.  As Mr. Silver the party establishment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa.  At the same time the big money superpac for THE establishment candidate Jeb Bush who is floundering in both Iowa and NH and currently running 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an advertising blitz in NH going all out attacking not Donald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is supported by the Sununu family one traditional Bush family allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Establishment GOP is still looking to nominate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only candidate standing as an alternative to Trump, the they can go all in against him.  Cruz gets the big guns attention because of his huge hard money advantage and incredible existing grass roots ground game in half the primary states already  & Rubio is left to Jeb’s moneybags on the theory that without a strong Iowa/NH showing he’ll can’t sustain his campaign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat afterwards leaving it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no circumstances can a conservative with the voting record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be president.  Forget that both would be the first Hispanic to lead a major party ticket, forget Rubio’s gang of eight stuff.  We can’t take the chance that a tea party candidate be the head of the party particularly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inability of anyone to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s latest ad is devastating) It’s possible that #1 is only Jeb plan.  After all the GOP establishment might be pragmatically thinking that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get something for it rather than later when it means nothing and his cooperation with their priorities will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP establishment in Washington , Massachusetts and particularly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

****************************************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you and as I’ll miss at least one more day of work as walking, standing drinking & smiling are still not back to working normally I would I ask you to please consider hitting DaTipJar.




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