The full folly of Donald Trump’s decision to skip the GOP debate is being proven tonight.

Tonight has been the worst possible result for him, the GOP debate has been full of substance, strong answers and serious discussion, with plenty of quotable moments that have nothing to do with Donald Trump.

That’s bad enough, but what’s worse for Donald Trump are two things:

If you are running as a strong man you can’t be afraid of a woman like Megyn Kelly (particularly if you will likely be facing Hillary Clinton in a general election)

If you are painting yourself as the indispensable man the last thing you want to prove is that this is wrong.

There will be a lot of short term spin on this.  Perhaps his attempt to play prevent might even help him win Iowa but in the long term this is going to hurt Donald Trump badly.

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Yesterday I wrote how the GOP’s establishment’s decision to go all in for Donald Trump is a pragmatic decision and in some ways quite logical because it does two things:

1. It acknowledges that the Primary System is designed to aid a front-runner and that Trump has put him self in a position to use it to his advantage better then their hand picked candidate has.

2. It allows them to attempt to Neutralize Ted Cruz who they hate more than anyone else.

In the short term this seems like a good move, it puts a billionaire on their side preserving a future $ stream and for them hopefully stops a potential president who would be less interested in providing long term wealth & position for connected friends of the establishment than actually doing the job.

Given that DC is the land of short term thinking this makes perfect sense, but the GOP is forgetting something huge.

Ted Cruz is a young man, he is going to be in the Senate for a very long time.

Furthermore any examination of the Cruz fundraising machine suggests not only does he have a national organization independent of the national GOP but one that is fundraising machine and volunteer machine that can be mobilized in practically every state.

Why does that matter?  Let’s take a trip down memory lane to Aug 27, 2013 and a piece called “Ted Cruz’s gift to the GOP establishment.

It commented on how Ted Cruz’s neutrality in races involving incumbent was considered a slap to the GOP establishment but I had a different view:

The MSM meme is:  Ted Cruz is sticking an eye in the establishment.  Ted Cruz being a maverick,  Ted Cruz  letting the whole world know he’s not going to be about helping entrenched power just because  it has an R next it its name!

The reality is he is doing exactly the opposite.

In fact one year later October 11th 2014 when Pat Roberts was in trouble….

Yesterday the Hill noted that Ted Cruz turned up in Kansas to say a few words on behalf of Pat Roberts (R-KS?) who is fighting for his political life to save a Senate seat that has belonged to the GOP since before I was born:

Tea Party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) waded into the Kansas Senate race Thursday, touting beleaguered Republican incumbent Pat Roberts as the contest’s only true conservative.

and I wrote at the time:

last year I argued that,  contrary to the conventional wisdom,  Ted Cruz was doing the GOP establishment a huge favor by staying out races which involved incumbent Republicans.  Yesterday’s appearance for Pat Roberts is the final piece in the puzzle whereby Ted Cruz, like Rand Paul before him, earns chits with the establishment GOP that he will be in a position to cash in during 2016 if he chooses to do so.

The GOP has now clearly told Ted Cruz that those chits are worth squat.

Fine.

The GOP is forgetting that every two years there is an election where the entire house is up for re-election and 1/3 of the Senate is and also regular elections for governors as well.

Now ask yourself this:

What would be the fastest way to build name recognition, to raise money for a run when the interests in the state are afraid of being on the wrong side of the sitting senator in the room?

A Ted Cruz endorsement.

In the last election cycle Ted Cruz did not challenge any sitting GOP incumbent, he didn’t endorse Matt Bevin when he was running against Mitch McConnell nor did aid John Cornyn’s worthy challenger Dwayne Stovall.  In the current election cycle, frankly Senator Cruz is a tad busy…

…but what about next one?

Ted Cruz is 45 years old.  He has the potential to be around for 10, 15 maybe even 20 election cycles.  He has a set of principles which are absolutely unshakable.  And like a congressman from Texas named Rayburn he can not be bought.

I mention Sam Rayburn because I want to tell a story to the establishment GOP about Mr. Cruz’s fellow Texan.  One day a  congressman walked over to him and lied to his face claiming that he dare not vote with Mr. Sam (as Rayburn was called) on a bill he cared about due to opinion in his district.  Rayburn answered him directly:

So don’t you come crawling across the room telling me you wish you could have voted for the bill ’cause you didn’t have the guts to.

This according to Robert Caro on page 330 of his Book Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power is what happened next:

A young state senator who had considered challenging the Congressman for his seat had dropped the idea because he didn’t have enough political clout.  Not a week after his confrontation with Rayburn, the Congressman walked into the house Dining room for lunch and saw the legislator sitting there—at Rayburn’s table.  When the legislator returned home he had all the clout he needed.

Now I won’t insult your intelligence to suggest that Ted Cruz is Sam Rayburn, he,  for example, could not & I suspect would not, do what Rayburn did,  making sure that the congressman above would not only lose election but be literally driven out of Washington.

But I will say this:  Picture being a sitting congressman or senator who every two or six years has talked the talk of conservatism but after re-election has voted with the establishment.  Picture being that member of congress in the house or senate coming home & finding Ted Cruz at a rally introducing a potential Tea Party challenger at a rally in your state?

Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) has.

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The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2016 is $22,000 That’s $62 a day

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.