The Iowa Caucus is only moments away and our nation will begin the formal process of choosing a successor to President Barack Obama.

The existential question for political conservatives is this:  What do they make of the Donald Trump wild card factor that has changed the dynamics of the Republican Party primary season?

Perhaps the insights of a historian and a journalist of the past may shine some light on the dilemma that Republicans face.

The late historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. was both a brilliant and erudite historian who wrote on a great many subjects during his lifetime.

Mr. Schlesinger worked in the Kennedy Administration as a “Special Assistant to The President”; he was a classical New Deal liberal who believed that the federal government should promote a “liberal” or in today’s parlance a “very progressive agenda.”

Arthur M. Schlesinger’s specialty was writing on the American Presidency.

He wrote four volumes on the life and political times of Franklin Roosevelt and he wrote the classic “The Imperial Presidency” which was published in 1973.

One of Mr. Schlesinger’s beliefs was that every 30 to 40 years that America experiences a seismic shift in the political landscape. Schlesinger suggested that the American electorate vacillated between “conservative” and “liberal orbits” every 3 to 4 decades.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the Evangelical and Conservative journalist Dr. Marvin Olasky’s conducted research that concurs with Mr. Schlesinger’s premise that our nation’s two political parties (since 1888) vied with each other for dominance in Presidential elections every 40 years.

For example, the time period from the late 1880s to the late 1920s was a time of Republican Party (conservative) ascendency in which the Republican Party dominated Presidential elections.

The dominant Political figure during this time was Republican President Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt.

Teddy Roosevelt was known for his “trust-busting” and for his “big stick diplomacy.”

Fast forward to the 1930s and the political fortunes of the two parties radically reversed.

From 1932 to 1968, Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman both redefined and remade the Democratic Party and changed what was a regionally based party of disparate elements into a cohesive national unit. By 1964, the Democratic Party was at the height of its influence and it appeared that its dominance would never end.

The 36 year reign of the Democrats that was initiated by President Franklin Roosevelt ended at the hands of Richard Nixon’s narrow victory in 1968.

President Nixon – and later President Reagan (1981-1989) – won votes from many disaffected Democrats who felt that the Democratic Party moved too far to the left of the political spectrum and was no longer the Party of Roosevelt and Truman.

Presidents Nixon and Reagan – along with the Republican Party Congressional majorities of the 1995 through 2000 time period initiated a major realignment of both the nature and scope of Federal Government activity. The Nixon-Reagan revolution was so effective that former Democratic President Bill Clinton averred in the 1994 to 1995 time period that “the era of Big Government is over.”

In 2008, Democratic Senator Barrack Obama ascended to the Oval Office with a convincing electoral win in which he captured 53% of the popular vote and 365 votes in the Electoral College.

President-Elect Obama’s win was impressive in all political facets.

He thoroughly beat his challenger Senator John McCain by capturing a decisive plurality with nearly every ethnic, political and religious group in his victory.

If history repeats itself (and history never repeats itself in an exactly duplicate sense, but there may be discernible patterns), then it would seem that the next 40 years on the Presidential level will be dominated by the Democratic Party.

From 1888 to 1924, the Republican Party won the office of the Presidency 7 times out of 10 Presidential elections (McKinley-Theodore Roosevelt-Howard Taft).

Starting with the Presidential election of 1928, the Democratic Party won the Presidency 7 out of the next 10 Presidential elections (Roosevelt-Truman axis).

And from 1968 to 2004, the Republican Party dominated the Oval Office by capturing the Presidency in 7 out of 10 Presidential elections (Nixon-Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II years).

The existential question is this: Will this pattern of Presidential Party dominance that has existed since 1888 continue or will there be a change in the electoral continuum?

The Republican Party may be in the wilderness for the foreseeable future.

In time, as historians and journalists such as Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. and Dr. Marvin Olasky have pointed out, the political fortunes of the party in the wilderness change and they return to power.

However, in the short-term, it is imperative that Judeo-Christian adherents, Traditional (Paleo) Conservatives, and Free-market advocates learn lessons from our nation’s electoral history so that they may best marshal their political, monetary, and social resources on the Local, State, and Regional levels while they are exiled in the “Presidential Wilderness.”

[Journalist’s note:  This article was redacted and updated from a similar essay published two years earlier in February of 2014.]

Pastor-Kelly

Adrian Monk: [to the murder suspect] You had the hotel key card, so you knew where he was staying. You ran the whole way. You probably didn’t even notice that it was starting to rain… you. It was you. You filthy, disgusting animal! YOU MAKE ME SICK!
[confused, everyone turns to look where Monk is pointing]
Busboy: Me?
Sharona Fleming: What are you doing? He’s a busboy!
Adrian Monk: Sharona, don’t you recognize him? From the subway! He’s the Urinator! Urinator! It was you, don’t-don’t try to deny it…!
Captain Leland Stottlemeyer: Monk…
Adrian Monk: We saw what you…!
Captain Leland Stottlemeyer: Monk! Could we get back to the quadruple homicide, please?

Monk: Mr. Monk Takes Manhattan 2004

I guess those NY values are leaking west.

San Francisco has installed an outdoor urinal in Dolores Park near the Mission District as part of the more than $20 million renovation of the recreation area in an attempt to combat a “rampant” public urination issue.

“The more options we can give them to relieve themselves, the better for the parkgoers,”

The potential one liners here are enormous

Lake Huron
Lake Huron

By John Ruberry

The Flint crisis–dangerous levels of lead have been found in its drinking water–is a travesty, but one that the left is using to advance its agenda.

Background: Two years ago after telling the the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department in a cost-cutting move that it would stop buying its Lake Huron water by 2017 when a new Huron pipeline project would be completed, Detroit ended its agreement with Flint, which compelled the impoverished city to turn to the Flint River for its water. But somehow Flint authorities made a colossal and possibly deadly mistake by not adding an anti-corrosive that costs $150-a-day into the water supply. That toxic error allowed lead from old pipes to get into the drinking water and yes, into the bodies of Flint residents. Had that additive been used, the expert who uncovered the Flint debacle says the lead crisis never would have occurred.

Rather than uncovering what went wrong and finding out who was responsible, the left is looking beyond the Flint water crisis to intensify a long-running political battle. Businesses and governments from all over the nation are shipping bottled water to Flint. Liberal bomb-thrower Michael Moore isn’t interested. The self-described Flint native–he actually grew up in a wealthy neighboring suburb–lists his demands for Flint which include the arrest and removal from office of Rick Snyder, Michigan’s Republican governor.

Flint and Detroit Public Schools are under control of an emergency manager because of longtime corruption and malfeasance perpetuated by its so-called public servants. Until recently so was the city of Detroit. Not coincidentally these government entities are cash honey holes for Democratic bureaucrats, which is why the left hates the emergency manager law. Snyder appoints Michigan’s emergency managers. Get it?

John "Lee" Ruberry
John “Lee” Ruberry

If you don’t, then read last week’s Washington Post column by leftist Dana Milbank. He blames the entire Flint travesty on Snyder and he of course sub-divides his finger-pointing on the emergency manager law.

Was Snyder–who should not be entirely blameless–the one the decision not to spend $150 on anti-corrosives? He almost certainly was not. Do Moore and Milbank care who it was? No, they would rather attack a Republican and push their idealogy.

A Students for a Democratic Society radical once mused, “The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution.”

Some things never change.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

There’s been some hints on twitter in terms of what’s been going on with me physically lately but I’ve not explicitly talked about it so as I’ve unexpected found myself with a day off, and home at 3 am on a sunday morning instead of at work let me explain.

What started a few weeks ago as a constant noise in the ear developed into fierce pain, dizziness, swelling in the ear, trouble keeping balance, and nausea to the point where I did something I hadn’t done in decades, went to the doctor. He was so shocked to see me show up in the office (no appointment) complaining of sickness on my own he actually found time to see me without much of a wait.

He initially diagnosed an ear infection which seemed to make sense, prescribed a course of antibiotics & told me to rest a few days saying if you’re not much better in under 48 hours to come back. As I wasn’t & DaWife wouldn’t let me wait a 3rd day she took me down and they hit me with IV antibiotics in the hopes of getting ahead of things.

We left the Doctor’s office & hit a local restaurant because I hadn’t eaten in two days when I noticed the straw felt wrong in my mouth, one side of my face had spontaneously collapsed, I looked with Popeye without the pipe, my wife fearing an allergic reaction (I have no history of allergies to anything short of liberalism) rushed me back where I became a sight of popular attraction curiosity among the staff and medical students who immediately arranged for me to be admitted to St. Vincent’s hospital in Worcester at once.

I hadn’t been admitted to a hospital in over 30 years and the only room they had was in the ICU. After a giving me a set of physical tests and examining me it turns out I have something that my own Leominster based Doctor had read about but never seen, Ramsey Hunt Syndrome.

It’s a form of shingles, based on the Chicken Pox virus (although the Russian based doctor at St. V’s made a cultural faux pas when explaining, saying I had herpes. That’s technically correct as the Chicken Pox virus is of that family but it provided a comic moment when I answered loudly “I have WHAT?!“. The wife and sons still regret that they were behind me & did not have camera phones at the ready).

My Doc missed it because until the Bell’s Palsy in the face is the classic sign of it. It’s viral so antibiotics are totally ineffective so I was put on some new anti-viral drugs (side effect of dizziness which added to my already unsteady footing) and a steroid anti-inflammatory for the ear inflammation (which apparently when your on it has interesting psychological effects so my own doc ordered a follow up to wean me from it before hey made me more wired than I already am). To a guy who doesn’t take aspirin it was weird to be on lots of meds

So I spent a week out of work in bed contagious and when I went back I was careful my boss & my co-workers kept a close eye & was given the OK to leave if wasn’t up to it. All my free time has been spent resting or online. I didn’t realize how bad I actually looked till Friday when I went out to a breakfast haunt I normally frequent and everyone was staring, they thought I had a stroke because of my walk and face.

The Doc checked on me Friday I’ve been slowly regaining control of the facial muscles on the right side of my face, I can whistle again, my balance is much improved and as of this writing I can with great effort close my right eye while leaving my left eye open (when I can blink alternatively at normal speed I’ll know I have it all back). If you haven’t seen me in some time you’ll instantly notice is wrong by my eye but the improvement seems steady.

On the down side I’m still getting the occasional stabbing pain in my right ear, but it only lasts a few seconds, the ringing in the ear has continued unabated (it’s particularly loud in settings like Eucharistic Adoration where there is no other background noise) and as I said I don’t have complete facial control. Doc said he expects these to go away but it could be six days, six weeks, six months or never, but there is nothing here that I can’t deal with after all it could have been much worse.

On the financial side our post Obamacare insurance is really bad so I’m worried about what the very short admission at St. V’s will cost & I’m out a week’s pay & hadn’t accused much if any sick time.

The most frustrating thing about it all is timing during the golden time of the most interesting primary season there has ever been I’ve been effectively grounded. It’s one thing to take a 15 minute drive to work late at night when there is no traffic, it’s another to drive to NH to cover primary events in my condition. Fortunately online other than my always horrible grammar none of the symptoms are apparently and my mind is no more diminished than my liberal friends always thought it was.

However if you’re wondering why I haven’t been on the ground lately up North as you might have expected, now you know.

****************************************************************************

The good news is that while my face has not fully recovered, web traffic has. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

If however you have not & are both able and inclined I’d really appreciate it if you’d help us either close January strong or start February stronger by hitting DaTipJar.




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