The GOP front runner is Donald Trump NOT Ted Cruz and here’s why

by Datechguy | February 11th, 2016

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The GOP front runner is Donald Trump NOT Ted Cruz and here's why

Chalk this up to wish­ful think­ing on someone’s part

Though the Real­Clear­Pol­i­tics aver­age cur­rently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Car­olina, that’s mis­lead­ing, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz’s win in Iowa.

Fur­ther­more, now that the field has nar­rowed down and Trump has won a pri­mary and proven him­self a seri­ous threat, there will be a lot more focus on his lib­eral record — on abor­tion, guns, health­care, prop­erty rights — among other issues. It won’t dis­suade his strongest sup­port­ers, but it doesn’t mat­ter, because it will dis­cour­age enough very con­ser­v­a­tive vot­ers and evan­gel­i­cals to give Cruz the victory.

I do not doubt that Ted Cruz vot­ers are likely more com­mit­ted and thanks to the well planned ground game are likely to turn out no mat­ter what. How­ever there are sev­eral things that Mr. Klein is miss­ing in declar­ing Ted Cruz the front run­ner. To wit:

#1 The flesh press­ing stage of the race is done.

The thing that makes both Iowa & NH unique is that in both states can­di­dates have to meet the vot­ers, peo­ple get to speak with them, ques­tion them and encounter the in person.

How­ever from this point on there will be mul­ti­ple states across the coun­try com­ing very fast and while Sen­a­tor Cruz’s ground game will get his vot­ers out the remain­ing states are built for the Don­ald Trump air war.


#2 Get­ting on the bandwagon:

Peo­ple like to be part of an event a hap­pen­ing. The Don­ald Trump phe­nom is such a thing, and as long as it only takes show­ing up to a polling place (as opposed to a cau­cus) the Don­ald Trump band­wagon effect will be there.


#3 Low infor­ma­tion vot­ers:

One of the real fact of life is the major­ity of peo­ple don’t pay atten­tion. While Sen­a­tor Cruz can cor­rectly point out Trump’s past record most of the peo­ple who are going to turn up aren’t going to be inter­ested in that. If there were inter­ested in what is going on they would have turned up and voted the last time

#4 The Trump pool

This is related to both #2 & #3 Don­ald Trump’s reach is far beyond those who actu­ally pay atten­tion to the polit­i­cal world. As that group is much larger than the peo­ple who do care about pol­i­tics this gives Don­ald a much larger reach. Byron York hit on this today when talk­ing with the NH GOP

In late Jan­u­ary, the New Hamp­shire Repub­li­can Party held a gath­er­ing that attracted GOP offi­cials, vol­un­teers, activists, and var­i­ous other mem­bers of the party elite from across the state. At the time, Don­ald Trump led the Repub­li­can pres­i­den­tial race in New Hamp­shire by nearly 20 points, and had been on top of the polls since July.

What was extra­or­di­nary about the gath­er­ing was that I talked to a lot of peo­ple there, polit­i­cally active Repub­li­cans, and most of them told me they per­son­ally didn’t know any­one who sup­ported Trump. Asked about the Trump lead, one very well-​connected New Hamp­shire Repub­li­can told me, “I don’t see it. I don’t feel it. I don’t hear it, and I spend part of every day with Repub­li­can voters.”

A lot of the GOP hasn’t fig­ured this out yet.

#5 Rat­ings rat­ing Ratings:

Don­ald Trump means rat­ings for the MSM. As long as Don­ald keeps deliv­er­ing the rat­ing the MSM will keep deliv­er­ing the free media that sup­ports his air war.

#6 Hate vs Fear

Rush Lim­baugh has often said that while the GOP estab­lish­ment hates Don­ald Trump, they fear Ted Cruz. This is true for the MSM as well which does not want the first Latino to be on top of a major party Ticket to be a strong con­ser­v­a­tive like Ted Cruz.

If it gets down to Cruz vs Trump (and it is likely to reach that point) look for both the media, con­vinced that Trump will be eas­ier to beat, and the GOP Estab­lish­ment, con­vinced that Trump will make the deal with them that Ted Cruz will not, to go all in for Trump to stop Cruz.

Now does that mean I think Trump has it clinched. By no means, I think Ted Cruz is play­ing the long game and doing it well, but to pre­tend that Don­ald Trump is not the front run­ner for the GOP nom­i­na­tion and Ted Cruz is, that’s just wish­ful thinking.

Given where the econ­omy is rather than where the MSM pre­tends it is and that it is Jan­u­ary both are under­stand­able and to those who have kicked in (par­tic­u­larly sub­scribers), thanks much.

If how­ever you have not & are both able and inclined I’d really appre­ci­ate it if you’d help us either close Jan­u­ary strong or start Feb­ru­ary stronger by hit­ting DaTipJar.




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Chalk this up to wishful thinking on someone’s part

Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that’s misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz’s win in Iowa.

Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record — on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights — among other issues. It won’t dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn’t matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.

I do not doubt that Ted Cruz voters are likely more committed and thanks to the well planned ground game are likely to turn out no matter what. However there are several things that Mr. Klein is missing in declaring Ted Cruz the front runner. To wit:

#1 The flesh pressing stage of the race is done.

The thing that makes both Iowa & NH unique is that in both states candidates have to meet the voters, people get to speak with them, question them and encounter the in person.

However from this point on there will be multiple states across the country coming very fast and while Senator Cruz’s ground game will get his voters out the remaining states are built for the Donald Trump air war.


#2 Getting on the bandwagon:

People like to be part of an event a happening. The Donald Trump phenom is such a thing, and as long as it only takes showing up to a polling place (as opposed to a caucus) the Donald Trump bandwagon effect will be there.


#3 Low information voters:

One of the real fact of life is the majority of people don’t pay attention. While Senator Cruz can correctly point out Trump’s past record most of the people who are going to turn up aren’t going to be interested in that.  If there were interested in what is going on they would have turned up and voted the last time

#4 The Trump pool

This is related to both #2 & #3 Donald Trump’s reach is far beyond those who actually pay attention to the political world. As that group is much larger than the people who do care about politics this gives Donald a much larger reach. Byron York hit on this today when talking with the NH GOP

In late January, the New Hampshire Republican Party held a gathering that attracted GOP officials, volunteers, activists, and various other members of the party elite from across the state. At the time, Donald Trump led the Republican presidential race in New Hampshire by nearly 20 points, and had been on top of the polls since July.

What was extraordinary about the gathering was that I talked to a lot of people there, politically active Republicans, and most of them told me they personally didn’t know anyone who supported Trump. Asked about the Trump lead, one very well-connected New Hampshire Republican told me, “I don’t see it. I don’t feel it. I don’t hear it, and I spend part of every day with Republican voters.”

A lot of the GOP hasn’t figured this out yet.

#5 Ratings rating Ratings:

Donald Trump means ratings for the MSM. As long as Donald keeps delivering the rating the MSM will keep delivering the free media that supports his air war.

#6 Hate vs Fear

Rush Limbaugh has often said that while the GOP establishment hates Donald Trump, they fear Ted Cruz. This is true for the MSM as well which does not want the first Latino to be on top of a major party Ticket to be a strong conservative like Ted Cruz.

If it gets down to Cruz vs Trump (and it is likely to reach that point) look for both the media, convinced that Trump will be easier to beat, and the GOP Establishment, convinced that Trump will make the deal with them that Ted Cruz will not, to go all in for Trump to stop Cruz.

Now does that mean I think Trump has it clinched. By no means, I think Ted Cruz is playing the long game and doing it well, but to pretend that Donald Trump is not the front runner for the GOP nomination and Ted Cruz is, that’s just wishful thinking.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

If however you have not & are both able and inclined I’d really appreciate it if you’d help us either close January strong or start February stronger by hitting DaTipJar.




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