Several weeks ago, I put forth the proposition that the Grand Old Party (GOP) may be headed for a steep decline or at the very least for a time in the “political wilderness.

Well, the events that transpired this past week give strong evidence that the premise that I put forth might have some merit.

The (GOP) is in the midst of a full-blown Civil War!

Since the Republican Presidential victories in 1968 (Richard Nixon vs Hubert Humphrey) and 1980 (Ronald Reagan vs. James E. “Jimmy” Carter) the GOP has put together a unique coalition of

  • Cultural Traditionalists – Judeo-Christian & Social Conservatives
  • Economic Conservatives – Please read this “Libertarians” & Supply Side advocates; and
  • Foreign Policy Defense Hawks – “Peace through Strength”

The illustration that has often been used is one of the three (3) legged stool.  In order to win the Presidency a prospective Republican candidate must unify the three diverse branches of the (GOP) and pick up a significant portion of Independent Voters.

The recent ascendancy and primary victories by Donald Trump reveal that for the first time in recent memory a GOP front-runner could win the nomination by appealing to a different segment of the voting population.

How are traditional Republicans handling this?

Well, that depends.

The Republican Party regulars do not know what to make of Mr. Trump’s continued popularity.

On one hand, there are party elders such as former Secretary of Education Mr. William “Bill” Bennett who feels that people need to take a deep breath and relax because he said that Mr. Trump is doing two positive things:

  • Bringing disaffected voters into the GOP fold, and
  • Secondly, bringing many angry White voters (perhaps Democrats?) who normally would not vote for a GOP candidate.

Secretary Bennett states that Mr. Trump is winning his primary victories fair and square so there should be no effort to change the nomination rules.

No one would dare question Mr. Bennett’s “Conservative credentials” as they are nearly impeccable.

Nevertheless, the last two men who won the nomination for President from the Republican Party vehemently disagree with Bill Bennett

Former Governor Mitt Romney took a nearly unprecedented step and asked for time on National T.V. (FOX) and (CNN) to give an impassioned speech denouncing Mr. Trump’s lack of fitness to be President of the United States.

Governor Romney – the Republican Party nominee for President in 2012 – articulated many of the concerns and fears that this writer – and many others have stated concerning Mr. Trump’s lack of commitment to Conservatism and Constitutionalism.

Mr. Romney echoed Senator Marco Rubio’s charge that Mr. Trump is a fraud (read that “con-artist”).

Senator John McCain – the Republican Party nominee for President in 2008 (and a decorated Vietnam Prisoner of War and War Hero) – tells would be listeners that Donald Trump’s lack of “foreign policy” experience and unintelligible answers to defense questions means that our country would be at great risk placing a “novice” into the Oval Office.

Wait, it gets better!

Conservative pundits, writers, and television hosts as diverse as Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham – and even the great legal scholar Mark Levin have sung the praises of “the Donald.”

There is a Biblical Principle known as “The Law of Unity.

There are many examples of The Law of Unity that could be cited, but some examples should suffice:

  • Whoever troubles his own household will inherit the wind, and the fool will be servant to the wise of heart (Proverbs 11.29);
  • Do two walk together unless they have agreed to meet?” (Amos 3.3);
  • Behold how good and pleasant it is when brothers (and sisters) dwell in “unity” (Psalms 133.1);
  • For when two or three are gathered in my name, there am I among them” (Jesus Christ Matthew 18.20).

The current state of affairs in the Republican Party resemble anything but unity:  more like “Street Fighting” and “Scorched-Earth” Warfare.

The Democratic Party’s historic Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) coalition of Working Class Ethnic Whites, Labor Unions, Jews, Blacks, and the South carried the Democratic Party to dominance from 1932 to 1968.

The Civil Rights Movement while essential fractured the (FDR) coalition for a whole voting generation from 1968 to 1992.  It was not until the election win of Governor Bill Clinton in 1992 that the Democratic Party became a contender in Presidential elections again.

The phenomenon of Donald Trump poses problems for the Party of Lincoln that may last for quite some time until a new and successful coalition emerges that augments and strengthens the winning combination that the GOP put together during the Nixon through Reagan Eras.

Over the next few weeks, I am going to diverge from “political commentary” and spend the next month or two writing on how men and women of faith engage the prevailing culture with Judeo-Christian values and convictions.

May GOD Bless You!

Pastor-Kelly

This story has manged to generate two wows from Instapundit:

According to the CPAC twitter feed, presidential contender Donald Trump will not show up for his scheduled appearance at the 2016 conference.

The Trump campaign is claiming that this is because of rallies in primary states and under normal circumstances that might make sense.

But with the general consensus that he was beaten up pretty badly at that debate and there was not the friendliest reception waiting for him thanks to a large anti-trump contingent this looks like a retreat.

As I said back when the dropped out of the last debate before Iowa, a strong man can’t afford to look like he’s running away

Donald Trump has been playing the Alpha Male but the reality is that his events are low risk and well controlled. He doesn’t take a lot of questions from people, he holds his press conferences BEFORE events so that press that wants to follow up on what he says had to wait the next day.

Backing out makes “Strong Man” Trump look weak but Dave Weigel, whose opinion I respect thinks has mixed feelings on the subject:

even a glance around the halls of the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, Md., suggested that Trump was heading for a disaster. He was scheduled to speak at 8:30 a.m., kicking off a day often sapped of energy by activists straggling in after sleeping off their Friday nights. He was likely to confront a protest or walkout from some activists, including one led by William Temple, a tea party activist who had led a buzzy walkout of Jeb Bush’s 2015 speech.

“We planned one,” said Ben Howe, a contributing editor at RedState. “Looks like he heard about it.”

He was also more than likely to face an unfamiliar sight on the Trump trail: a half-empty room.

His thought is that the heat from backing out of CPAC hurt less that showing up and having trouble

In effect Dave says Trump is what GOP voters might had to do in November, given two bad choices take the least bad one,

But there are rour problems with this idea.

#1 The Ron Paul people made one day registration an art form, nobody is telling me Trump’s team couldn’t have managed to bus in and pay for say 200 pro-trump folks to attend the speech, the cost would have been minimal and given the size of his crowd he draws Trump fans might have been fighting for the chance, even at the last minute to show up.

#2 Given that there is a plethora of closed primaries coming up it might be a good idea, particularly after a rough debate, to shore up one’s conservative credentials. Cancelling at CPAC does exactly the opposite.

#3 Trump could have always played against the crowd, portraying it as stacked with Establishment types. While it’s true that such an argument is absurd on it’s face to anyone who knows CPAC most voters have never been and it’s likely he would have been able to sell that story to them.

#4 He ceded the floor to his opponents and Ted Cruz took advantage of it in spades:

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas led off his address at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Friday by highlighting the absence of 2016 GOP presidential rival Donald Trump, who has cancelled his planned Saturday appearance.

“So Donald Trump is skipping CPAC. I bet somebody told him Megyn Kelly was going to be here. Or even worse, he was told there were conservatives that were going to be here,” Mr. Cruz said.

Cue Leonard Duran

Now as I said this was a mistake, but it’s been a long campaign season and Mr. Trump has already proved he could recover from a mistake once.

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Tomorrow night I’m back to work but today I’m back trying to get that elusive $61 a day for DaTipJar.

It’s been a weird week. We’ve alternated missing our goal one day and making the goal with enough to spare to make up for the shortfall the day before, the next.

Yesterday we ended up short $39 today we are $45 toward our $61 with $16 to go to make it and a deficit for the year of $1324.

If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




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Please consider Subscribing. We are currently 116.3 subscribers at $10 a month to make our goal every day without further solicitation but the numbers are even more interesting:

If less than 1/3 of 1% of our February readers this month subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

If less than 2/3 of 1% did, I’d be completely out of debt and able to attend CPAC

If a full 1% of our February readers subscribed at $10 a month I could afford to travel across the country covering the presidential race this year in person for a full month.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


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It was going on eleven or so Republican debates that I hadn’t watched, so I tuned in last night at 9pm Eastern. The immoderate moderators’ questions were: “Mr. Trump, what do you think of yourself?”, to which he answered “I have a big penis“;

“Mr. Rubio, what do you think of that?” Rubio: “Donald’s a braggart”;

“Mr. Cruz, how do you think you can beat Trump if you don’t let him drag you in the mud?” Cruz: “Because I stand on the issues (and explains)”

“Mr. Trump, but enough of that, let’s talk about you some more. Trump: “Brag, brag . . .”

It was 9:08pm. Enough. More than enough.

I clicked the TV app to Netflix, and came across a French murder-mystery, Counter-investigation (Contre-enquête, 2007), starring Jean Dujardin, the tap-dancing guy from The Artist, who also was in The Monuments Men.

Well, if Dujardin is in it, it may be worth watching.

It is.

Dujardin plays Richard Malinowski, a police detective married to an anesthesiologist. He’s an upright guy, happily married, with a beautiful nine-year old girl, Emilie. The movie opens with Richard and Emilie having breakfast in their very lovely home one happy morning while mom works her shift at the hospital.

The phone rings, Richard answers the phone call, and leaves his little girl home. That was the last time he sees her alive.

Counter-inquiry grabs you from the start. It is a gripping murder mystery, the story is compelling, the characters are believable, and Dujardin’s performance breaks your heart.

While the story can lend itself to violence portrayals on film, the audience is spared, which in turn makes the emotional impact more powerful. You are left to imagine the worst: The scene where Richard re-lives the Saturday morning encapsulates his pain, guilt and despair in a faction of a minute, and stays in your mind.

I won’t give away the plot. This is an excellent film that deserves a larger audience.

In French, with subtitles that are well worth the effort.

Not rated yet on Rotten Tomatoes, but I give it a 5.

 

 

As a Ted Cruz supporter I can present a lot of solid rational arguments to vote for Ted Cruz over Donald Trump. Cruz’s record for fighting against amnesty, common core and Obamacare. He’s constant consistent conservatism, and his willingness to put himself on the line for these principles and the folly of supporting someone who says he believes in something vs someone who clearly prove he does

But since dry argument isn’t doing the trick perhaps a different cultural track is called for.

So I present to you, Sung to the tune of the Theme to classic TV series Maverick:

The Donald Trump Gibberish Song or What Platitudes get you in the end

♫Who is the man who says: “Goo Na Goo!”? Donald trump is his name
Why does he say “Goo Na Goo”? Nobody can tell you
Only it sounds great.♫

♫ Oh it sounds really great
and the people just can wait
to hear him say that: Goo Na Goo Na goo! ♫

♫ Cause when he says “Goo Na Goo”
The People they all swoon
They love when he says: “Goo Na Goo Na Goo” ♫

♫ Who is the man who does “Goo Na Goo!”? Donald trump is his name
What’s the Magic of: “Goo Na Goo”? Nobody can tell you
but it’s the Donald’s way ♫

 ♫ Oh it’s the Donald’s way
It brought him wealth and fame
It all comes down to Goo Na Goo Na Goo! ♫

♫ And if you try “Goo Na Goo”
It should work great for you
What the country needs is:  “Goo Na Goo Na Goo”! ♫

♫ Who is the man who claims “Goo Na Goo”? Donald trump is his name
What does it mean this “Goo Na Goo”? Nobody can tell you.
Just it’s right as rain ♫

♫ Oh it is right as rain
Even if the next guys says
it means opposite of what you think it do. ♫

♫ But when he says “Goo Na Goo!”
You both agree it’s true!
We’re all big fans of: “Goo Na Goo Na Goo” ♫

♫ Who is the man who commands: “Goo Na Goo!”? Donald trump is his name
How do you do that “Goo Na Goo”? Nobody can tell you.
But do it right away ♫

♫ Oh do it right away
And don’t you hesitate
When he tells you; “Do that Goo Na Goo Na goo”! ♫

♫ Cause he knows that: “Goo Na Goo!”
In the end is best for you
So We’ll loyally do: Goo Na Goo Na Goo! ♫

♫ Who is the man who said: “Goo Na Goo!”? Donald trump was his name
What went wrong with “Goo Na Goo”? Nobody can tell you
It should have worked OK. ♫

♫ Oh it should have worked OK
And brought a brighter day
When the country voted Goo Na Goo Na Goo. ♫

♫ But In the end that: Goo Na Goo
Was just some platitude
We’re now all Deep in “Goo na Goo na Goo” ♫

Update: It’s worth pointing out that democrats who are pointing and laughing are ignoring that this is essentially what they voted for in 2008 & 2012 and you could substitute “obama” for Donald Trump throughout the song and it would still work.

Of course you would have to pull the verse about wealth and fame, because in the end Donald trump has actually in fact done things, built things and made money, Barack Obama has not.
*******************************

Tomorrow night I’m back to work but today I’m back trying to get that elusive $61 a day for DaTipJar.

It’s been a weird week. We’ve alternated missing our goal one day and making the goal with enough to spare to make up for the shortfall the day before, the next.

Yesterday we ended up short $39 today we are $25 toward our $61 with $36 to go to make it and a deficit for the year of $1324.

If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. We are currently 116.3 subscribers at $10 a month to make our goal every day without further solicitation but the numbers are even more interesting:

If less than 1/3 of 1% of our February readers this month subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

If less than 2/3 of 1% did, I’d be completely out of debt and able to attend CPAC

If a full 1% of our February readers subscribed at $10 a month I could afford to travel across the country covering the presidential race this year in person for a full month.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



As I’ve written a lot lately the only way for a candidate to overtake Donald Trump is to look at things realistically and plan accordingly. So you don’t hear a lot of analysis here that’s tinted with Rose Colored glasses.

I understand that my man is behind and that he has to not only defeat Donald Trump who has proved to be a brilliant campaigner who continues to learn his lessons well but has to defeat the Establishment wing of the party that despite claiming to oppose Trump, opposes conservatism more and would rather risk a Trump victory that have a proven conservative at the top of the ticket. That’s just the way it is.

The only was to do this is to evaluate the situation and look for areas of opportunity and as I look at the calendar I do see one stat and fact that gives me and my fellow Ted Cruz fans some reason for optimism.

With the exception of his home state of Texas, the three states Ted Cruz has won are Iowa, Oklahoma and Alaska.

Do you know the two things what all those states have in common?

1. In all of those states Trump was polling ahead yet Cruz won

Iowa Poll: Trump +4.7, Result: Cruz +3.3
Alaska Poll Trump +4 Result Cruz +2.9
Oklahoma Poll: Trump 11.4 Result: Cruz +6.1

2. In all those states the primary is closed to non-republicans.

In fact did you know that with only one exception Every single state that Donald Trump has won allows people who aren’t republicans vote to decide who the party nominates.

To be sure the exception to this rule (Nevada) went for Trump in a big way
(Nevada Polls: Trump +17, Result Trump +22) but this would not seem to be a coincidence.

And it turns out that of the next 9 contests Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mississippi are closed primaries.

And furthermore with the exception of Kentucky (Trump +13) and Michigan (Trump +19.4) there is no recent polling showing what the situation is.

Now all of these states are proportional so if Ted Cruz manages to win several of these states like Kansas, Louisiana and Idaho it’s not likely that it will narrow the gap a lot but if he can secure at least three of them that will help his donors and supporters keep their nerve and with 18 more closed primaries and caucus over the next 4 months coming, that could make all the difference.

But the first step is Senator Cruz doing well in those seven closed states in the next week.

One has to play the game with the cars you have, as far as I can see, these are the best cards in Ted Cruz’s deck.