The Ignored Stat in Ted Cruz’s Favor

by Datechguy | March 4th, 2016

Readability

The Ignored Stat in Ted Cruz's Favor

As I’ve writ­ten a lot lately the only way for a can­di­date to over­take Don­ald Trump is to look at things real­is­ti­cally and plan accord­ingly. So you don’t hear a lot of analy­sis here that’s tinted with Rose Col­ored glasses.

I under­stand that my man is behind and that he has to not only defeat Don­ald Trump who has proved to be a bril­liant cam­paigner who con­tin­ues to learn his lessons well but has to defeat the Estab­lish­ment wing of the party that despite claim­ing to oppose Trump, opposes con­ser­vatism more and would rather risk a Trump vic­tory that have a proven con­ser­v­a­tive at the top of the ticket. That’s just the way it is.

The only was to do this is to eval­u­ate the sit­u­a­tion and look for areas of oppor­tu­nity and as I look at the cal­en­dar I do see one stat and fact that gives me and my fel­low Ted Cruz fans some rea­son for optimism.

With the excep­tion of his home state of Texas, the three states Ted Cruz has won are Iowa, Okla­homa and Alaska.

Do you know the two things what all those states have in common?

1. In all of those states Trump was polling ahead yet Cruz won

Iowa Poll: Trump +4.7, Result: Cruz +3.3
Alaska Poll Trump +4 Result Cruz +2.9
Okla­homa Poll: Trump 11.4 Result: Cruz +6.1

2. In all those states the pri­mary is closed to non-​republicans.

In fact did you know that with only one excep­tion Every sin­gle state that Don­ald Trump has won allows peo­ple who aren’t repub­li­cans vote to decide who the party nominates.

To be sure the excep­tion to this rule (Nevada) went for Trump in a big way
(Nevada Polls: Trump +17, Result Trump +22) but this would not seem to be a coincidence.

And it turns out that of the next 9 con­tests Kansas, Ken­tucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michi­gan, Mis­sis­sippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mis­sis­sippi are closed primaries.

And fur­ther­more with the excep­tion of Ken­tucky (Trump +13) and Michi­gan (Trump +19.4) there is no recent polling show­ing what the sit­u­a­tion is.

Now all of these states are pro­por­tional so if Ted Cruz man­ages to win sev­eral of these states like Kansas, Louisiana and Idaho it’s not likely that it will nar­row the gap a lot but if he can secure at least three of them that will help his donors and sup­port­ers keep their nerve and with 18 more closed pri­maries and cau­cus over the next 4 months com­ing, that could make all the difference.

But the first step is Sen­a­tor Cruz doing well in those seven closed states in the next week.

One has to play the game with the cars you have, as far as I can see, these are the best cards in Ted Cruz’s deck.

As I’ve written a lot lately the only way for a candidate to overtake Donald Trump is to look at things realistically and plan accordingly. So you don’t hear a lot of analysis here that’s tinted with Rose Colored glasses.

I understand that my man is behind and that he has to not only defeat Donald Trump who has proved to be a brilliant campaigner who continues to learn his lessons well but has to defeat the Establishment wing of the party that despite claiming to oppose Trump, opposes conservatism more and would rather risk a Trump victory that have a proven conservative at the top of the ticket. That’s just the way it is.

The only was to do this is to evaluate the situation and look for areas of opportunity and as I look at the calendar I do see one stat and fact that gives me and my fellow Ted Cruz fans some reason for optimism.

With the exception of his home state of Texas, the three states Ted Cruz has won are Iowa, Oklahoma and Alaska.

Do you know the two things what all those states have in common?

1. In all of those states Trump was polling ahead yet Cruz won

Iowa Poll: Trump +4.7, Result: Cruz +3.3
Alaska Poll Trump +4 Result Cruz +2.9
Oklahoma Poll: Trump 11.4 Result: Cruz +6.1

2. In all those states the primary is closed to non-republicans.

In fact did you know that with only one exception Every single state that Donald Trump has won allows people who aren’t republicans vote to decide who the party nominates.

To be sure the exception to this rule (Nevada) went for Trump in a big way
(Nevada Polls: Trump +17, Result Trump +22) but this would not seem to be a coincidence.

And it turns out that of the next 9 contests Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mississippi are closed primaries.

And furthermore with the exception of Kentucky (Trump +13) and Michigan (Trump +19.4) there is no recent polling showing what the situation is.

Now all of these states are proportional so if Ted Cruz manages to win several of these states like Kansas, Louisiana and Idaho it’s not likely that it will narrow the gap a lot but if he can secure at least three of them that will help his donors and supporters keep their nerve and with 18 more closed primaries and caucus over the next 4 months coming, that could make all the difference.

But the first step is Senator Cruz doing well in those seven closed states in the next week.

One has to play the game with the cars you have, as far as I can see, these are the best cards in Ted Cruz’s deck.

Catholic CD of the Month

Know your Catholic Faith

Natural discount shop

Food Glorious Food

Listen to your Granny

DTG & RS McCain Approved!

Find Discounts at the Stores you Love

TOP STORES

Bloggers Prayer

Oh God, you who gave free will to your creation, bless those who use that precious gift to blog.

May we though this gift of freedom of expression enlighten, entertain and inform our readers, and we ask particular blessing for those who bring your word across the net, that they may faithfully execute your command to make disciples of all nations.

We ask this through Christ our Lord, Amen.

Granite Grok

Goldfish and Clowns

Best Grassroots Blogs

Winner - 2014 Fabulous 50 Blog Awards

Support our favorite Charties

Old Examiner Pieces

Tags

Winner - 2014 Fabulous 50 Blog Awards

Most Innovative Blogger 2013

Help a Brother Knight of Mine who needs a hand

%d bloggers like this: