As I’ve written a lot lately the only way for a candidate to overtake Donald Trump is to look at things realistically and plan accordingly. So you don’t hear a lot of analysis here that’s tinted with Rose Colored glasses.
I understand that my man is behind and that he has to not only defeat Donald Trump who has proved to be a brilliant campaigner who continues to learn his lessons well but has to defeat the Establishment wing of the party that despite claiming to oppose Trump, opposes conservatism more and would rather risk a Trump victory that have a proven conservative at the top of the ticket. That’s just the way it is.
The only was to do this is to evaluate the situation and look for areas of opportunity and as I look at the calendar I do see one stat and fact that gives me and my fellow Ted Cruz fans some reason for optimism.
With the exception of his home state of Texas, the three states Ted Cruz has won are Iowa, Oklahoma and Alaska.
Do you know the two things what all those states have in common?
1. In all of those states Trump was polling ahead yet Cruz won
Iowa Poll: Trump +4.7, Result: Cruz +3.3
Alaska Poll Trump +4 Result Cruz +2.9
Oklahoma Poll: Trump 11.4 Result: Cruz +6.1
2. In all those states the primary is closed to non-republicans.
In fact did you know that with only one exception Every single state that Donald Trump has won allows people who aren’t republicans vote to decide who the party nominates.
To be sure the exception to this rule (Nevada) went for Trump in a big way
(Nevada Polls: Trump +17, Result Trump +22) but this would not seem to be a coincidence.
And it turns out that of the next 9 contests Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mississippi are closed primaries.
Now all of these states are proportional so if Ted Cruz manages to win several of these states like Kansas, Louisiana and Idaho it’s not likely that it will narrow the gap a lot but if he can secure at least three of them that will help his donors and supporters keep their nerve and with 18 more closed primaries and caucus over the next 4 months coming, that could make all the difference.
But the first step is Senator Cruz doing well in those seven closed states in the next week.
One has to play the game with the cars you have, as far as I can see, these are the best cards in Ted Cruz’s deck.