One of the Favorite phrases of Tip O’Neill was “I’ve always known how to count.” indicating that he had a clear idea of if a bill had the votes to pass or no or if a candidate had a path to win an election.
That keeps coming to mind as we repeatedly hear that the winner take all states spell Doom for the Trump candidacy.
Now as a Ted Cruz supporter who proudly cast his vote for him and continues to urge others to do so I have hopes that some of the closed primaries coming up in the next week Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine for example and have written on the subject but I also know that there are quite a few open primaries coming up as well.
March 8th Mississippi poll Trump plus 24 proportional
March 15th Illinois poll Trump plus 15.5 Winner Take all
March 15th Missouri poll Trump plus 12 (old) Winner Take all
March 15th North Carolina poll Trump plus 10.3 Open
March 15th Ohio poll Trump plus 5 Winner take all
April 5th Wisconsin poll Trump plus 10 Winner take all
May 10th West Virginia poll Trump plus 20 Direct Election
June 7th Montana poll Cruz +6 (old) plus 15.5 Winner take all
June 7th New Jersey poll Trump plus 18 Winner Take all
There are also two states with open primaries that there are no polling for
April 26th Rhode Island Proportional
May 3rd Indiana poll Winner take all
Trump is leading 8 in states with a total of 431 delegates
Cruz is leading in one state with 27 delegates
two states with no polling are worth 76 Delegates
And frankly there are in the closed primaries Trump is polling pretty good too. There are six closed primary states with 385 delegates where trump is polling at LEAST +10.
Right now Trump has 319, Cruz 226 and Rubio 110 with 1237 delegates to win.
Trump needs 918 more delegates, The 14 states I’ve mentioned are worth 816 delegates. If he only manages half of those delegates in these states where he has the advantage he is down to 510 delegates.
And that’s not even counting the 25 more states that we haven’t talked with 900+ delegates.
No matter how you slice it the odds are with Donald Trump, and no matter how you slice it the only shot to stop him, is the junior senator from Texas, not the senator from Florida.
That’s why Lindsey Graham is talking alliances with Ted Cruz It doesn’t matter what your opinion on Donald Trump is, it doesn’t matter if you think he’s the second coming of Reagan or Obama the Math is the Math and it has to be faced, that is if you’re interested in reality.