as I write this the polls have just closed and it took the networks a whole 1 second to project Donald Trump as the winner of his home state and the vast majority of delegates therein.
Hours of spin based on these results not withstanding lets look at the real world application
As of this writing Mr. Trump has 756 delegates. Let’s presume that he gets 90% of the delegates out of NY (85 out of 95) that would get him to 841 meaning he would need a total of 396 more delegates to clinch it before the convention.
The last day of the primaries is June 7th (CA, NJ, NM, SD & Montana) but there are five election days before then April 26th (CT, Del, MD, PA & RI) May 3rd (Indiana), May 10th, (WV & Neb) May 17th (OR) and May 24th (Wash)
Tallying up the delegate totals of the states before June 7th the total number of delegates available is 371. This means it is mathematically impossible for Mr. Trump to clinch before the last day even if he wins every single delegate on the table.
The good news for Trump is April 26th should be great for him. I expect to see him win all five of those states and pick up at least 100 delegates. I suspect may 3rd and 10th will not be so friendly. I see Cruz winning Nebraska and Indiana with West Virginia capable of going in either direction. He might be lucky to get 20 delegates on the day.
I have no idea what’s going through the mind of Washington & Oregon voters but as both states are proportional even if Trump wins em both that’s likely another 40 delegates or so.
If my numbers are right that leaves him about 236 delegates shy going into June 7th and that’s where it gets tricky. New Mexico is proportional so I’m figuring 12 delegates for Trump. Montana & SD are straight winner take all and I’m betting both will go for Cruz but so is New Jersey which looks like Trump country. that’s another 51.
That leaves California with 172 delegates…
…and Trump needing 173.
Now there are some undeclared delegates going to the convention and I don’t doubt that Trump will win his share but if you want to understand why the Trump campaign is so upset about Ted Cruz’s delegate operation now you know.
This is going to go down to the wire (much to the delight of the networks for ratings purposes) and how Trump finishes is going to say a lot about how a Trump general election campaign might look like.