As the GOP convention ends and speculation on who Hillary Clinton’s VP pick will be reports are coming out that the choices have been narrowed in a short list that includes Tim Kaine of Virginia and Cory Booker of New Jersey.
Lately a lot of the money of the pundits is on Kaine:
Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has emerged as a leading contender after a methodical search, several Democrats close to the campaign say, receiving spirited backing from President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton.
One might think that give the current Democrat party a “diversity” pick Corey Booker who would be the 1st black VP, one of the Castro Brothers (first hispanic) or even Elizabeth Warren (first all female ticket).
You would be wrong.
While the GOP convention has been the big news this week the stories that dominated the news before this week and are likely to do so once the DNC convention is done are these.
The coup in Turkey
ISIS attacks in France and Germany
The targeting of Police for murder and/or abuse.
Each of these stories are likely to continue to grow.
The Erdogan crackdown has already reached incredible excesses and is likely to go further to creating a full blown islamic brotherhood state in Turkey.
ISIS attacks have continued with the axe attack in Germany (My son actually saw German flags flying at Fitchburg’s old city hall at half staff over them) and there is absolutely no reason to believe there will not one or more successful ISIS attacks in the west before the election not to mention several attempted ones. (Within 3 hours of the initial writing of this came the attacks in Germany)
While everyone was expecting trouble in Cleveland the targeting of Police is likely to continue from police being denied service to small acts like the glass that “accidentally” ended up in a cops sandwich in a “progressive” coffee house, to actually ambushes of police officers.
All of these things produce worry in the electorate and require a strong leader, an image that Trump projects very easily. Meanwhile two of the issue directly reflect on Hillary Clinton’s performance as Secretary of State and the third directly reflects on a particular group of Hillary voters to who the words “All lives matter” or “blue lives matter” are considered offensive in the extreme. While the Clinton and their allies in the radical left will do all they can to keep their more radical elements restrained in that regard although in fairness there is little they can do.
Rightly or wrongly the selection of a 2nd woman will give the impression of weakness.
And rightly and wrongly the pick of a person of color at a time when people of color will be seen as a statement to appease anti-police forces.
Bottom line, the voters that Clinton are most worried about are White working class and the states she are most worried about are ones where those folks will decide.
That’s why no matter what anyone else tell you, the Hillary Clinton VP pick will the whitest white boy who can be found and that’s why the smart money is on Kaine.
I say the smart money is right.
Update: Nailed it.